Janice M. Lough

Coral record of increased sediment flux to the inner Great Barrier Reef since European settlement

The effect of European settlement on water quality in the Great Barrier Reef of Australia is a long-standing and controversial issue. Erosion and sediment transport in river catchments in this region have increased substantially since European settlement, but the magnitude of these changes remains uncertain. Here we report analyses of Ba/Ca ratios in long-lived Porites coral from Havannah Reef—a site on the inner Great Barrier Reef that is influenced by flood plumes from the Burdekin river—to establish a record of sediment fluxes from about 1750 to 1998. We find that, in the early part of the record, suspended sediment from river floods reached the inner reef area only occasionally, whereas after about 1870—following the beginning of European settlement—a five- to tenfold increase in the delivery of sediments is recorded with the highest fluxes occurring during the drought-breaking floods. We conclude that, since European settlement, land-use practices such as clearing and overstocking have led to major degradation of the semi-arid river catchments, resulting in substantially increased sediment loads entering the inner Great Barrier Reef.

Declining Coral Calcification on the Great Barrier Reef

Reef-building corals are under increasing physiological stress from a changing climate and ocean absorption of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. We investigated 328 colonies of massive Porites corals from 69 reefs of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia. Their skeletal records show that throughout the GBR, calcification has declined by 14.2% since 1990, predominantly because extension (linear growth) has declined by 13.3%. The data suggest that such a severe and sudden decline in calcification is unprecedented in at least the past 400 years. Calcification increases linearly with increasing large-scale sea surface temperature but responds nonlinearly to annual temperature anomalies. The causes of the decline remain unknown; however, this study suggests that increasing temperature stress and a declining saturation state of seawater aragonite may be diminishing the ability of GBR corals to deposit calcium carbonate.

Environmental controls on growth of the massive coral Porites

Annual density banding provided growth characteristics for 245 similar-sized, massive colonies of Porites from similar locations on 29 reefs from across the length and breadth of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Values obtained were density, extension rate, and calcification rate. Tissue thickness, the depth to which skeletons were occupied by tissue at the time of collection, was also measured. Extension rate, calcification rate, and tissue thickness were significantly greater at the top of colonies than at the sides. Extension rate and calcification rate decreased from north to south along the GBR (latitudinal range of approximately 9 degrees ) and were significantly and directly related to annual average sea surface temperature (SST; range approximately 25-27 degrees C). For each 1 degrees C rise in SST, average annual calcification increased by 0.39 g cm(-2) year(-1) and average annual extension increased by 3.1 mm year(-1) (c.f. average values of 1.63 g cm(-2) year(-1) and 12.9 mm year(-1), respectively). Density was inversely correlated with extension rate and increased with distance offshore. Data for massive Porites colonies from the GBR were extended though 20 degrees of latitude and an average annual SST range of 23-29 degrees C using published data for the Hawaiian Archipelago (Grigg, R.W., 1981. Coral reef development at high latitudes in Hawaii. Proc. 4th Int. Coral Reef Symp., Manila, Vol. 1, pp. 687-693; Grigg, R.W., 1997. Paleoceanography of coral reefs in the Hawaiian-Emperor Chain - revisited. Coral Reefs 16, S33-S38) and Phuket, Thailand (Scoffin. T.P., Tudhope. A.W., Brown. B.E., Chansang. H., Cheeney. R.F., 1992. Patterns and possible environmental controls of skeletogenesis of Porites lutea, South Thailand. Coral Reefs 11, 1-11). The response of calcification rate to temperature remained linear. Variation in annual average SST accounted for 84% of the variance. For each 1 degrees C rise in SST, average annual calcification increased by 0.33 g cm(-2) year(-1) and average annual extension increased by 3.1 mm year(-1) (c.f. average values of 1.50 g cm(-2) year(-1) and 11.6 mm year(-1), respectively). The sensitivity of calcification rate in Porites to SST, combined with observed 20th Century increases in SSTs, suggests that calcification rates may have already significantly increased along the GBR in response to global climate change.

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals

During 2015–2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

The coral reef crisis: The critical importance of <350 ppm CO2

Temperature-induced mass coral bleaching causing mortality on a wide geographic scale started when atmospheric CO(2) levels exceeded approximately 320 ppm. When CO(2) levels reached approximately 340 ppm, sporadic but highly destructive mass bleaching occurred in most reefs world-wide, often associated with El Niño events. Recovery was dependent on the vulnerability of individual reef areas and on the reefs previous history and resilience. At todays level of approximately 387 ppm, allowing a lag-time of 10 years for sea temperatures to respond, most reefs world-wide are committed to an irreversible decline. Mass bleaching will in future become annual, departing from the 4 to 7 years return-time of El Niño events. Bleaching will be exacerbated by the effects of degraded water-quality and increased severe weather events. In addition, the progressive onset of ocean acidification will cause reduction of coral growth and retardation of the growth of high magnesium calcite-secreting coralline algae. If CO(2) levels are allowed to reach 450 ppm (due to occur by 2030-2040 at the current rates), reefs will be in rapid and terminal decline world-wide from multiple synergies arising from mass bleaching, ocean acidification, and other environmental impacts. Damage to shallow reef communities will become extensive with consequent reduction of biodiversity followed by extinctions. Reefs will cease to be large-scale nursery grounds for fish and will cease to have most of their current value to humanity. There will be knock-on effects to ecosystems associated with reefs, and to other pelagic and benthic ecosystems. Should CO(2) levels reach 600 ppm reefs will be eroding geological structures with populations of surviving biota restricted to refuges. Domino effects will follow, affecting many other marine ecosystems. This is likely to have been the path of great mass extinctions of the past, adding to the case that anthropogenic CO(2) emissions could trigger the Earths sixth mass extinction.

Projected climate change in Australian marine and freshwater environments

Changes in the physical environment of aquatic systems consistent with climate change have been reported across Australia, with impacts on many marine and freshwater species. The future state of aquatic environments can be estimated by extrapolation of historical trends. However, because the climate is a complex non-linear system, a more process-based approach is probably required, in particular the use of dynamical projections using climate models. Because global climate models operate on spatial scales that typically are too coarse for aquatic biologists, statistical or dynamical downscaling of model output is proposed. Challenges in using climate projections exist; however, projections for some marine and freshwater systems are possible. Higher oceanic temperatures are projected around Australia, particularly for south-eastern Australia. The East Australia Current is projected to transport greater volumes of water southward, whereas the Leeuwin Current on the western coast may weaken. On land, projections suggest that air temperatures will rise and rainfall will decline across much of Australia in coming decades. Together, these changes will result in reduced runoff and hence reduced stream flow and lake storage. Present climate models are particularly limited with regard to coastal and freshwater systems, making the models challenging to use for biological-impact and adaptation studies.

Changes in Climate Extremes Over the Australian Region and New Zealand During the Twentieth Century

Analyses of high quality data show that there have been some interesting recent changes in the incidence of some climate extremes in the Australian region and New Zealand.

Several centuries of variation in skeletal extension, density and calcification in massive Porites colonies from the Great Barrier Reef: A proxy for seawater temperature and a background of variability against which to identify unnatural change

Annual variations in skeletal density were measured by gamma densitometry in 35 cores removed from large Porites colonies growing at sites throughout the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Density variations along each core provided data for average annual density and annual extension. These were used to estimate average annual calcification. Records ranged from 49 to 507 years in length. The period common to all colonies was 1934–1982. Annual growth data were averaged over periods of at least 5 years to avoid problems associated with dating of records and with measurement techniques. This also made some allowance for distortion of environmental information during coral growth and for intrusion into the environmental signal of information associated with skeletal architecture. The period common to the 10 longest cores was 1746–1982. Instrumental records of sea surface temperature (SST) are available for the GBR back to 1906. Annual calcification, averaged across these 10 cores, was significantly related to SST. Thus, average annual calcification for these 10 colonies provides a proxy for SST variations on the GBR back to the 18th century. Interpretation of evidence of a recent decline in calcification of Porites of the GBR is tempered by (1) evidence of similar declines and recoveries over the past several centuries and (2) evidence that coral calcification on the GBR has been above the long-term average for most of this century and the recent decline may be a return to more normal conditions.

Climate change and coral reef connectivity

This review assesses and predicts the impacts that rapid climate change will have on population connectivity in coral reef ecosystems, using fishes as a model group. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to accelerate larval development, potentially leading to reduced pelagic durations and earlier reef-seeking behaviour. Depending on the spatial arrangement of reefs, the expectation would be a reduction in dispersal distances and the spatial scale of connectivity. Small increase in temperature might enhance the number of larvae surviving the pelagic phase, but larger increases are likely to reduce reproductive output and increase larval mortality. Changes to ocean currents could alter the dynamics of larval supply and changes to planktonic productivity could affect how many larvae survive the pelagic stage and their condition at settlement; however, these patterns are likely to vary greatly from place-to-place and projections of how oceanographic features will change in the future lack sufficient certainty and resolution to make robust predictions. Connectivity could also be compromised by the increased fragmentation of reef habitat due to the effects of coral bleaching and ocean acidification. Changes to the spatial and temporal scales of connectivity have implications for the management of coral reef ecosystems, especially the design and placement of marine-protected areas. The size and spacing of protected areas may need to be strategically adjusted if reserve networks are to retain their efficacy in the future.

On the nature and causes of density banding in massive coral skeletons

A mechanistic account of skeletal density band formation in massive colonies of Porites is developed by linking observations from vital staining of growing skeletons with measurements of density band characteristics, dissepiment spacing and the depth to which skeleton was occupied by tissue. Three growth processes contribute to density band formation. First, addition of new skeleton at the outer surface of the colony. Second, thickening of existing skeleton through the depth of the tissue layer (tissue usually occupies skeleton formed over the last 4–13 months). Third, the density pattern is then modified by periodic and abrupt uplift of the lower margin of the tissue layer which occurs about every 30 days. Uplift is associated with formation of new dissepiments and produces a fine density band at the lower margin of the tissue layer. Less regular, fine bands are formed within the tissue layer probably as a result of variations in calcification at the colonial surface. X-radiography of skeletal slices compresses and combines the results of these mechanisms making it difficult to distinguish the contribution of individual mechanisms to the overall X-ray image. The relative importance of the three mechanisms — extension, thickening and tissue uplift — to overall skeletal growth may differ between individual colonies. Variability in the way the mechanisms operate and combine may account for widely differing reports of coral density banding.