Jared Aldstadt

Constructing the Spatial Weights Matrix Using a Local Statistic

Spatial weights matrices are necessary elements in most regression models where a representation of spatial structure is needed. We construct a spatial weights matrix, W, based on the principle that spatial structure should be considered in a two-part framework, those units that evoke a distance effect, and those that do not. Our twovariable local statistics model (LSM) is based on the Gi* local statistic. The local statistic concept depends on the designation of a critical distance, dc, defined as the distance beyond which no discernible increase in clustering of high or low values exists. In a series of simulation experiments LSM is compared to well-known spatial weights matrix specifications—two different contiguity configurations, three different inverse distance formulations, and three semi-variance models. The simulation experiments are carried out on a random spatial pattern and two types of spatial clustering patterns. The LSM performed best according to the Akaike Information Criterion, a spatial autoregressive coefficient evaluation, and Morans I tests on residuals. The flexibility inherent in the LSM allows for its favorable performance when compared to the rigidity of the global models.

Validation of Walk Score ® for Estimating Neighborhood Walkability: An Analysis of Four US Metropolitan Areas

Neighborhood walkability can influence physical activity. We evaluated the validity of Walk Score® for assessing neighborhood walkability based on GIS (objective) indicators of neighborhood walkability with addresses from four US metropolitan areas with several street network buffer distances (i.e., 400-, 800-, and 1,600-meters). Address data come from the YMCA-Harvard After School Food and Fitness Project, an obesity prevention intervention involving children aged 5–11 years and their families participating in YMCA-administered, after-school programs located in four geographically diverse metropolitan areas in the US (n = 733). GIS data were used to measure multiple objective indicators of neighborhood walkability. Walk Scores were also obtained for the participant’s residential addresses. Spearman correlations between Walk Scores and the GIS neighborhood walkability indicators were calculated as well as Spearman correlations accounting for spatial autocorrelation. There were many significant moderate correlations between Walk Scores and the GIS neighborhood walkability indicators such as density of retail destinations and intersection density (p < 0.05). The magnitude varied by the GIS indicator of neighborhood walkability. Correlations generally became stronger with a larger spatial scale, and there were some geographic differences. Walk Score® is free and publicly available for public health researchers and practitioners. Results from our study suggest that Walk Score® is a valid measure of estimating certain aspects of neighborhood walkability, particularly at the 1600-meter buffer. As such, our study confirms and extends the generalizability of previous findings demonstrating that Walk Score is a valid measure of estimating neighborhood walkability in multiple geographic locations and at multiple spatial scales.

Spatial and Temporal Clustering of Dengue Virus Transmission in Thai Villages

Background Transmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the leading cause of arboviral disease worldwide, is known to vary through time and space, likely owing to a combination of factors related to the human host, virus, mosquito vector, and environment. An improved understanding of variation in transmission patterns is fundamental to conducting surveillance and implementing disease prevention strategies. To test the hypothesis that DENV transmission is spatially and temporally focal, we compared geographic and temporal characteristics within Thai villages where DENV are and are not being actively transmitted. Methods and Findings Cluster investigations were conducted within 100 m of homes where febrile index children with (positive clusters) and without (negative clusters) acute dengue lived during two seasons of peak DENV transmission. Data on human infection and mosquito infection/density were examined to precisely (1) define the spatial and temporal dimensions of DENV transmission, (2) correlate these factors with variation in DENV transmission, and (3) determine the burden of inapparent and symptomatic infections. Among 556 village children enrolled as neighbors of 12 dengue-positive and 22 dengue-negative index cases, all 27 DENV infections (4.9% of enrollees) occurred in positive clusters (p < 0.01; attributable risk [AR] = 10.4 per 100; 95% confidence interval 1–19.8 per 100]. In positive clusters, 12.4% of enrollees became infected in a 15-d period and DENV infections were aggregated centrally near homes of index cases. As only 1 of 217 pairs of serologic specimens tested in positive clusters revealed a recent DENV infection that occurred prior to cluster initiation, we attribute the observed DENV transmission subsequent to cluster investigation to recent DENV transmission activity. Of the 1,022 female adult Ae. aegypti collected, all eight (0.8%) dengue-infected mosquitoes came from houses in positive clusters; none from control clusters or schools. Distinguishing features between positive and negative clusters were greater availability of piped water in negative clusters (p < 0.01) and greater number of Ae. aegypti pupae per person in positive clusters (p = 0.04). During primarily DENV-4 transmission seasons, the ratio of inapparent to symptomatic infections was nearly 1:1 among child enrollees. Study limitations included inability to sample all children and mosquitoes within each cluster and our reliance on serologic rather than virologic evidence of interval infections in enrollees given restrictions on the frequency of blood collections in children. Conclusions Our data reveal the remarkably focal nature of DENV transmission within a hyperendemic rural area of Thailand. These data suggest that active school-based dengue case detection prompting local spraying could contain recent virus introductions and reduce the longitudinal risk of virus spread within rural areas. Our results should prompt future cluster studies to explore how host immune and behavioral aspects may impact DENV transmission and prevention strategies. Cluster methodology could serve as a useful research tool for investigation of other temporally and spatially clustered infectious diseases.

Fine Scale Spatiotemporal Clustering of Dengue Virus Transmission in Children and Aedes aegypti in Rural Thai Villages

Background Based on spatiotemporal clustering of human dengue virus (DENV) infections, transmission is thought to occur at fine spatiotemporal scales by horizontal transfer of virus between humans and mosquito vectors. To define the dimensions of local transmission and quantify the factors that support it, we examined relationships between infected humans and Aedes aegypti in Thai villages. Methodology/Principal Findings Geographic cluster investigations of 100-meter radius were conducted around DENV-positive and DENV-negative febrile “index” cases (positive and negative clusters, respectively) from a longitudinal cohort study in rural Thailand. Child contacts and Ae. aegypti from cluster houses were assessed for DENV infection. Spatiotemporal, demographic, and entomological parameters were evaluated. In positive clusters, the DENV infection rate among child contacts was 35.3% in index houses, 29.9% in houses within 20 meters, and decreased with distance from the index house to 6.2% in houses 80–100 meters away (p<0.001). Significantly more Ae. aegypti were DENV-infectious (i.e., DENV-positive in head/thorax) in positive clusters (23/1755; 1.3%) than negative clusters (1/1548; 0.1%). In positive clusters, 8.2% of mosquitoes were DENV-infectious in index houses, 4.2% in other houses with DENV-infected children, and 0.4% in houses without infected children (p<0.001). The DENV infection rate in contacts was 47.4% in houses with infectious mosquitoes, 28.7% in other houses in the same cluster, and 10.8% in positive clusters without infectious mosquitoes (p<0.001). Ae. aegypti pupae and adult females were more numerous only in houses containing infectious mosquitoes. Conclusions/Significance Human and mosquito infections are positively associated at the level of individual houses and neighboring residences. Certain houses with high transmission risk contribute disproportionately to DENV spread to neighboring houses. Small groups of houses with elevated transmission risk are consistent with over-dispersion of transmission (i.e., at a given point in time, people/mosquitoes from a small portion of houses are responsible for the majority of transmission).

Underrecognized Mildly Symptomatic Viremic Dengue Virus Infections in Rural Thai Schools and Villages

BACKGROUND The understanding of dengue virus (DENV) transmission dynamics and the clinical spectrum of infection are critical to informing surveillance and control measures. Geographic cluster studies can elucidate these features in greater detail than cohort studies alone. METHODS A 4-year longitudinal cohort and geographic cluster study was undertaken in rural Thailand. Cohort children underwent pre-/postseason serology and active school absence-based surveillance to detect inapparent and symptomatic dengue. Cluster investigations were triggered by cohort dengue and non-dengue febrile illnesses (positive and negative clusters, respectively). RESULTS The annual cohort incidence of symptomatic dengue ranged from 1.3% to 4.4%. DENV-4 predominated in the first 2 years, DENV-1 in the second 2 years. The inapparent-to-symptomatic infection ratio ranged from 1.1:1 to 2.9:1. Positive clusters had a 16.0% infection rate, negative clusters 1.1%. Of 119 infections in positive clusters, 59.7% were febrile, 20.2% were afebrile with other symptoms, and 20.2% were asymptomatic. Of 16 febrile children detected during cluster investigations who continued to attend school, 9 had detectable viremia. CONCLUSIONS Dengue transmission risk was high near viremic children in both high- and low-incidence years. Inapparent infections in the cohort overestimated the rate of asymptomatic infections. Ambulatory children with mild febrile viremic infections could represent an important component of dengue transmission.

Racial differences in the built environment—body mass index relationship? A geospatial analysis of adolescents in urban neighborhoods

BackgroundBuilt environment features of neighborhoods may be related to obesity among adolescents and potentially related to obesity-related health disparities. The purpose of this study was to investigate spatial relationships between various built environment features and body mass index (BMI) z-score among adolescents, and to investigate if race/ethnicity modifies these relationships. A secondary objective was to evaluate the sensitivity of findings to the spatial scale of analysis (i.e. 400- and 800-meter street network buffers).MethodsData come from the 2008 Boston Youth Survey, a school-based sample of public high school students in Boston, MA. Analyses include data collected from students who had georeferenced residential information and complete and valid data to compute BMI z-score (n = 1,034). We built a spatial database using GIS with various features related to access to walking destinations and to community design. Spatial autocorrelation in key study variables was calculated with the Global Moran’s I statistic. We fit conventional ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and spatial simultaneous autoregressive error models that control for the spatial autocorrelation in the data as appropriate. Models were conducted using the total sample of adolescents as well as including an interaction term for race/ethnicity, adjusting for several potential individual- and neighborhood-level confounders and clustering of students within schools.ResultsWe found significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the built environment features examined (Global Moran’s I most ≥ 0.60; all p = 0.001) but not in BMI z-score (Global Moran’s I = 0.07, p = 0.28). Because we found significant spatial autocorrelation in our OLS regression residuals, we fit spatial autoregressive models. Most built environment features were not associated with BMI z-score. Density of bus stops was associated with a higher BMI z-score among Whites (Coefficient: 0.029, p < 0.05). The interaction term for Asians in the association between retail destinations and BMI z-score was statistically significant and indicated an inverse association. Sidewalk completeness was significantly associated with a higher BMI z-score for the total sample (Coefficient: 0.010, p < 0.05). These significant associations were found for the 800-meter buffer.ConclusionSome relationships between the built environment and adolescent BMI z-score were in the unexpected direction. Our findings overall suggest that the built environment does not explain a large proportion of the variation in adolescent BMI z-score or racial disparities in adolescent obesity. However, there are some differences by race/ethnicity that require further research among adolescents.

Dengue Virus Neutralizing Antibody Levels Associated with Protection from Infection in Thai Cluster Studies

Background Long-term homologous and temporary heterologous protection from dengue virus (DENV) infection may be mediated by neutralizing antibodies. However, neutralizing antibody titers (NTs) have not been clearly associated with protection from infection. Methodology/Principal Findings Data from two geographic cluster studies conducted in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand were used for this analysis. In the first study (2004–2007), cluster investigations of 100-meter radius were triggered by DENV-infected index cases from a concurrent prospective cohort. Subjects between 6 months and 15 years old were evaluated for DENV infection at days 0 and 15 by DENV PCR and IgM ELISA. In the second study (2009–2012), clusters of 200-meter radius were triggered by DENV-infected index cases admitted to the provincial hospital. Subjects of any age ≥6 months were evaluated for DENV infection at days 0 and 14. In both studies, subjects who were DENV PCR positive at day 14/15 were considered to have been “susceptible” on day 0. Comparison subjects from houses in which someone had documented DENV infection, but the subject remained DENV negative at days 0 and 14/15, were considered “non-susceptible.” Day 0 samples were presumed to be from just before virus exposure, and underwent plaque reduction neutralization testing (PRNT). Seventeen “susceptible” (six DENV-1, five DENV-2, and six DENV-4), and 32 “non-susceptible” (13 exposed to DENV-1, 10 DENV-2, and 9 DENV-4) subjects were evaluated. Comparing subjects exposed to the same serotype, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves identified homotypic PRNT titers of 11, 323 and 16 for DENV-1, -2 and -4, respectively, to differentiate “susceptible” from “non-susceptible” subjects. Conclusions/Significance PRNT titers were associated with protection from infection by DENV-1, -2 and -4. Protective NTs appeared to be serotype-dependent and may be higher for DENV-2 than other serotypes. These findings are relevant for both dengue epidemiology studies and vaccine development efforts.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns in the Recovery of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations After Insecticide Treatment

Abstract Given that tools for dengue emergency control are limited, continuous evaluation of the effectiveness of insecticide applications in the field is of utmost importance. Such studies will provide a sound basis for defining spraying schemes for public health authorities in dengue-affected countries. In this article, we address the following research questions: How do different space spraying strategies affect Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) populations in both space and time? More specifically, how well are these mosquitoes killed, and how quickly do their populations recover and from where? Field trials were carried out with ultralow volume sprayers in Kamphaeng Phet province, Thailand, with a pyrethrin mixture that was applied 1) indoors only, 2) indoors plus outdoors, 3) indoors with a doubled spraying time, and 4) indoors with doubled spraying time plus outdoors. We found that within 7 d, Ae. aegypti populations recovered to ≈50% of their original numbers. Spraying the outdoor area and doubling the time sprayed per room only had a significant impact on mosquito numbers 1 d after spraying. Two and 7 d after spraying, these effects were no longer detected. By investigating the spatial arrangement of Ae. aegypti numbers, we found that during the first 2 d after spraying immigration from untreated areas extended ≈15 m into the sprayed area, whereas after 7 d this effect extended up to 50 m. Results are discussed in relation to ongoing dengue control efforts in Thailand.

Ecological Modeling of Aedes aegypti (L.) Pupal Production in Rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Background Aedes aegypti (L.) is the primary vector of dengue, the most important arboviral infection globally. Until an effective vaccine is licensed and rigorously administered, Ae. aegypti control remains the principal tool in preventing and curtailing dengue transmission. Accurate predictions of vector populations are required to assess control methods and develop effective population reduction strategies. Ae. aegypti develops primarily in artificial water holding containers. Release recapture studies indicate that most adult Ae. aegypti do not disperse over long distances. We expect, therefore, that containers in an area of high development site density are more likely to be oviposition sites and to be more frequently used as oviposition sites than containers that are relatively isolated from other development sites. After accounting for individual container characteristics, containers more frequently used as oviposition sites are likely to produce adult mosquitoes consistently and at a higher rate. To this point, most studies of Ae. aegypti populations ignore the spatial density of larval development sites. Methodology Pupal surveys were carried out from 2004 to 2007 in rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. In total, 84,840 samples of water holding containers were used to estimate model parameters. Regression modeling was used to assess the effect of larval development site density, access to piped water, and seasonal variation on container productivity. A varying-coefficients model was employed to account for the large differences in productivity between container types. A two-part modeling structure, called a hurdle model, accounts for the large number of zeroes and overdispersion present in pupal population counts. Findings The number of suitable larval development sites and their density in the environment were the primary determinants of the distribution and abundance of Ae. aegypti pupae. The productivity of most container types increased significantly as habitat density increased. An ecological approach, accounting for development site density, is appropriate for predicting Ae. aegypti population levels and developing efficient vector control programs.

Space-time analysis of hospitalised dengue patients in rural Thailand reveals important temporal intervals in the pattern of dengue virus transmission.

Objective  To determine the temporal intervals at which spatial clustering of dengue hospitalisations occurs.