Jasni Sulong

Bayesian network model of crowd emotion and negative behavior

The effects of overcrowding have become a major concern for event organizers. One aspect of this concern has been the idea that overcrowding can enhance the occurrence of serious incidents during events. As one of the largest Muslim religious gathering attended by pilgrims from all over the world, Hajj has become extremely overcrowded with many incidents being reported. The purpose of this study is to analyze the nature of human emotion and negative behavior resulting from overcrowding during Hajj events from data gathered in Malaysian Hajj Experience Survey in 2013. The sample comprised of 147 Malaysian pilgrims (70 males and 77 females). Utilizing a probabilistic model called Bayesian network, this paper models the dependence structure between different emotions and negative behaviors of pilgrims in the crowd. The model included the following variables of emotion: negative, negative comfortable, positive, positive comfortable and positive spiritual and variables of negative behaviors; aggressive and hazardous acts. The study demonstrated that emotions of negative, negative comfortable, positive spiritual and positive emotion have a direct influence on aggressive behavior whereas emotion of negative comfortable, positive spiritual and positive have a direct influence on hazardous acts behavior. The sensitivity analysis showed that a low level of negative and negative comfortable emotions leads to a lower level of aggressive and hazardous behavior. Findings of the study can be further improved to identify the exact cause and risk factors of crowd-related incidents in preventing crowd disasters during the mass gathering events.

The Model of Istinbat by the Shariah Advisory Council of Central Bank of Malaysia

The dynamism of muamalat affairs and Islamic finance has undergone rapid development, and that it becomes increasingly complex. The Islamic scholars recognize this development as in line with the changing times, in which, the objective of shariah is for the benefit of the human beings. Nevertheless, the nas of the Islamic law is limited while the developments is in advance, which very need the role of ijtihad to play its function in dealing with the situation. Notwithstanding the facts, ijtihad must be carried out on consistent methodology, so that the shariah resolutions are competitive and trustworthy. Unfortunately, problems occur when the Shariah Advisory Council (SAC) of the Central Bank, the highest governing body established by the law and has the authority in decision-making regarding Islamic finance in Malaysia, does not submit clear rules and procedures in the issuance of shariah resolutions. This has resulted the decision being challenged in court. Hence, this study is aimed at drawing up a specialized istinbat methodology in muamalat affairs and Islamic finance. This study has been done qualitatively by referring to manuscripts of usul al-fiqh, muamalat, Islamic finance, and statutes. In the findings, the study discovers that there were products approved by the SAC which have been alleged as non-compliant to shariah. This happened because there is no strong legal framework outlined. Therefore, the study attempts to outline a model of istinbat methodology in Islamic banking issues which meets the shariah that can be used as a guideline by the SAC in issuing a resolution.

Sumbangan Kitab Sullam Nayyirain dalam Hitungan Gerhana di Nusantara

Peristiwa gerhana telah wujud dalam pelbagai tamadun dunia dan menerima pelbagai persepsi mengenai asbab dan implikasi kewujudannya. Begitu juga halnya dalam Islam, ia turut berkait dengan kepercayaan kepada kekuasaan Allah SWT, tanda akhir zaman, penurunan Imam Mahdi dan sebagainya. Di samping kepercayaan ini, peristiwa gerhana merupakan satu cabang ilmu dalam bidang falak. Ia mengajar manusia kaedah hitungan dan pergerakan matahari dan bulan bagi mengetahui kedudukan alam semesta dan waktu-waktu tertentu dalam agama. Perkembangan ilmu falak ini telah berlangsung sejak zaman sebelum Islam lagi sehinggalah diwarisi para ulama silam dan seterusnya berkembang ke Nusantara. Perkembangan ini membantu para ulama tempatan membuat hitungan dan cerapan ke atas peristiwa gerhana matahari dan bulan. Antara Kitab yang menjadi rujukan dalam hal ini ialah Kitab Sullam al-Nayyirain fi Ma’rifati al-Ijtima’ wa al-Kusufain yang dikarang oleh Kiyai Haji Muhammad Mansur Betawi. Justeru, kajian dilakukan secara kepustakaan untuk mengkaji sumbangan ilmu falak dalam bidang gerhana dan sumbangan kitab ini kepada perkembangan ilmu falak kepada masyarakat Melayu Nusantara. Kajian mendapati kitab ini telah mendedahkan kaedah hitungan yang memberi nilai terdekat (hisab bi taqrib) kepada tarikh jangkaan peristiwa gerhana yang akan berlaku. Secara tidak langsung, ilmu ini memberi manfaat kepada masyarakat Melayu untuk bersedia sebelum menghadapi peristiwa gerhana untuk ibadat dan hebahan kepada masyarakat.