Jason A. Sippel

Cloud-Resolving Hurricane Initialization and Prediction through Assimilation of Doppler Radar Observations with an Ensemble Kalman Filter

Abstract This study explores the assimilation of Doppler radar radial velocity observations for cloud-resolving hurricane analysis, initialization, and prediction with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The case studied is Hurricane Humberto (2007), the first landfalling hurricane in the United States since the end of the 2005 hurricane season and the most rapidly intensifying near-landfall storm in U.S. history. The storm caused extensive damage along the southeast Texas coast but was poorly predicted by operational models and forecasters. It is found that the EnKF analysis, after assimilating radial velocity observations from three Weather Surveillance Radars-1988 Doppler (WSR-88Ds) along the Gulf coast, closely represents the best-track position and intensity of Humberto. Deterministic forecasts initialized from the EnKF analysis, despite displaying considerable variability with different lead times, are also capable of predicting the rapid formation and intensification of the hurricane. These forecasts...

Effects of Moist Convection on Hurricane Predictability

This study exemplifies inherent uncertainties in deterministic prediction of hurricane formation and intensity. Such uncertainties could ultimately limit the predictability of hurricanes at all time scales. In particular, this study highlights the predictability limit due to the effects on moist convection of initial-condition errors with amplitudes far smaller than those of any observation or analysis system. Not only can small and arguably unobservable differences in the initial conditions result in different routes to tropical cyclogenesis, but they can also determine whether or not a tropical disturbance will significantly develop. The details of how the initial vortex is built can depend on chaotic interactions of mesoscale features, such as cold pools from moist convection, whose timing and placement may significantly vary with minute initial differences. Inherent uncertainties in hurricane forecasts illustrate the need for developing advanced ensemble prediction systems to provide event-dependent probabilistic forecasts and risk assessment.

A Probabilistic Analysis of the Dynamics and Predictability of Tropical Cyclogenesis

Abstract Using methods unique for tropical cyclone studies in peer-reviewed literature, this study examines the dynamics and predictability of a nondeveloping tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico during the 2004 hurricane season. Short-range ensemble forecasts are performed with a mesoscale model at low resolution with parameterized moist convection and at high resolution with explicit convection. Taking advantage of discrepancies between ensemble members, statistical correlation is used to elucidate why some ensemble members strengthen the disturbance into a tropical cyclone or hurricane and others do not. It is found that the two most important factors in the initial conditions for genesis in this case are the presence of deep moisture and high CAPE. These factors combine to yield more active initial convection and a quick spinup during the first 6–12 h. Because these factors result in quicker genesis in some ensemble members than others, they are also the primary source for spread early in the en...

An In-Person Survey Investigating Public Perceptions of and Responses to Hurricane Rita Forecasts along the Texas Coast

Abstract Hurricane Rita made landfall near the Texas–Louisiana border in September 2005, causing major damage and disruption. As Rita approached the Gulf Coast, uncertainties in the storm’s track and intensity forecasts, combined with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, led to major evacuations along the Texas coast and significant traffic jams in the broader Houston area. This study investigates the societal impacts of Hurricane Rita and its forecasts through a face-to-face survey with 120 Texas Gulf Coast residents. The survey explored respondents’ evacuation decisions prior to Hurricane Rita, their perceptions of hurricane risk, and their use of and opinions on Hurricane Rita forecasts. The vast majority of respondents evacuated from Hurricane Rita, and more than half stated that Hurricane Katrina affected their evacuation decision. Although some respondents said that their primary reason for evacuating was local officials’ evacuation order, many reported using information about the hurricane to evalua...

The Multiple-Vortex Nature of Tropical Cyclogenesis

Abstract This study explores the extent to which potential vorticity (PV) generation and superposition were relevant on a variety of scales during the genesis of Tropical Storm Allison. Allison formed close to shore, and the combination of continuous Doppler radar, satellite, aircraft, and surface observations allows for the examination of tropical cyclogenesis in great detail. Preceding Allison’s genesis, PV superposition on the large scale created an environment where decreased vertical shear and increased instability, surface fluxes, and low-level cyclonic vorticity coexisted. This presented a favorable environment for meso-α-scale PV production by widespread convection and led to the formation of surface-based, meso-β-scale vortices [termed convective burst vortices (CBVs)]. The CBVs seemed to form in association with intense bursts of convection and rotated around each other within the meso-α circulation field. One CBV eventually superposed with a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV), resulting in a mor...

Factors Affecting the Predictability of Hurricane Humberto (2007)

Abstract This study uses ensemble Kalman filter analyses and short-range ensemble forecasts to study factors affecting the predictability of Hurricane Humberto, which made landfall along the Texas coast in 2007. Humberto is known for both its rapid intensification and extreme forecast uncertainty, which makes it an ideal case in which to examine the origins of tropical cyclone strength forecast error. Statistical correlation is used to determine why some ensemble members strengthen the incipient low into a hurricane and others do not. During the analysis period, it is found that variations in midlevel moisture, low-level convective instability, and strength of a front to the north of the cyclone likely lead to differences in net precipitation, which ultimately leads to storm strength spread. Stronger storms are favored when the atmosphere is more moist and unstable and when the front is weaker, possibly because some storms in the ensemble begin entraining cooler and drier postfrontal air during this perio...

Environmental Influences on the Strength of Tropical Storm Debby (2006)

AbstractThis study uses mesoscale ensemble forecasts to compare the magnitude of nonaerosol effects of the Saharan air layer (SAL) with other environmental influences on the intensity of Tropical Storm Debby. Debby was a weak Cape Verde storm that dissipated over the tropical North Atlantic a few days after forming in August 2006. The system has received considerable attention because of its vicinity to the SAL as it struggled to intensify, which has led to speculation that the SAL helped lead to the storm’s demise. Statistical correlation is used to better understand why some ensemble members strengthen the pre-Debby wave into a hurricane and others develop only a weak vortex.Although the results here suggest that the SAL slowed intensification during the predepression to depression stages, it was not likely responsible for Debby’s dissipation. The most obvious SAL-related factor to affect long-term intensity in the ensembles is dry air above 2 km, which delays organization of the low-level vortex. Warm ...

Dynamics and Predictability of Hurricane Nadine (2012) Evaluated through Convection-Permitting Ensemble Analysis and Forecasts

AbstractThe governing dynamics and uncertainties of an ensemble simulation of Hurricane Nadine (2012) are assessed through the use of a regional-scale convection-permitting analysis and forecast system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). For this case, the data that are utilized were collected during the 2012 phase of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) experiment. The majority of the tracks of this ensemble were successful, correctly predicting Nadine’s turn toward the southwest ahead of an approaching midlatitude trough, though 10 members forecasted Nadine to be carried eastward by the trough. Ensemble composite and sensitivity analyses reveal the track divergence to be caused by differences in the environmental steering flow that resulted from uncertainties associated with the position and subsequent strength of a midlatitude trough.Despite the general success of the ensemble tra...

Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of Simulated HIWRAP Doppler Velocity Data in a Hurricane

AbstractThis study utilizes ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to analyze the potential impact of assimilating radial velocity observations of hurricanes from the High-altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (HIWRAP). HIWRAP is a new Doppler radar mounted on the NASA Global Hawk unmanned airborne system that flies at roughly 19-km altitude and has the benefit of a 25–30-h flight duration, which is 2–3 times that of conventional aircraft. This research is intended as a proof-of-concept study for future assimilation of real HIWRAP data. The most important result from this research is that HIWRAP data can potentially improve hurricane analyses and prediction. For example, by the end of a 12-h assimilation period, the analysis error is much lower than that in deterministic forecasts. As a result, subsequent forecasts initialized with the EnKF analyses also improve. Furthermore, analyses and forecasts clearly benefit more from a 12-h assimilation period than ...

The Evolution and Role of the Saharan Air Layer during Hurricane Helene (2006)

AbstractThe Saharan air layer (SAL) has received considerable attention in recent years as a potential negative influence on the formation and development of Atlantic tropical cyclones. Observations of substantial Saharan dust in the near environment of Hurricane Helene (2006) during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Activities (AMMA) Experiment (NAMMA) field campaign led to suggestions about the suppressing influence of the SAL in this case. In this study, a suite of satellite remote sensing data, global meteorological analyses, and airborne data are used to characterize the evolution of the SAL in the environment of Helene and assess its possible impact on the intensity of the storm. The influence of the SAL on Helene appears to be limited to the earliest stages of development, although the magnitude of that impact is difficult to determine observationally. Saharan dust was observed on the periphery of the storm during the first two days of develo...