Scott A. Braun

Sensitivity of high-resolution simulations of Hurricane Bob (1991) to planetary boundary layer parameterizations

The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University‐National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model is used to simulate Hurricane Bob (1991) using grids nested to high resolution (4 km). Tests are conducted to determine the sensitivity of the simulation to the available planetary boundary layer parameterizations, including the bulk aerodynamic, Blackadar, Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) model, and Burk‐Thompson boundary layer schemes. Significant sensitivity is seen, with minimum central pressures varying by up to 16 mb and maximum winds by 15 m s21. The Burk‐Thompson and bulk aerodynamic boundary layer schemes produced the strongest storms while the MRF scheme produced the weakest storm. Simulated horizontal precipitation structures varied substantially between the different PBL schemes, suggesting that accurate forecasts of precipitation in hurricanes can be just as sensitive to the formulation of the PBL as they are to the cloud microphysical parameterizations. Each PBL scheme is different in its formulation of the vertical mixing within the PBL and the surface fluxes, with the exception of the MRF and Blackadar schemes, which share essentially the same surface flux parameterization. Detailed analyses of the PBL schemes describe the key differences in the surface fluxes and how they impact storm intensity. In order to isolate the effects of vertical mixing and surfaces fluxes, simulations were conducted in which each of the surface flux schemes was used in conjunction with the same vertical mixing scheme, and vice versa. These experiments indicate that simulated intensity is largely determined by the surface fluxes rather than by the vertical mixing, with the exception of the MRF PBL case, in which excessively deep vertical mixing acts to dry the lower PBL and reduce hurricane intensity. Simulations that vary only the surface fluxes suggest that the intensity of the simulated hurricane increases with increasing values of the ratio of the exchange coefficients for enthalpy and momentum, Ck/CD. However, even for identical values of Ck/CD, the simulated intensity varies depending on the wind speed dependence of the surface roughness parameter z 0.

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry. Part I: Improved Method and Uncertainties

Abstract A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and nonconvective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subse...

A Lagrangian Trajectory View on Transport and Mixing Processes between the Eye, Eyewall, and Environment Using a High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998)

The transport and mixing characteristics of a large sample of air parcels within a mature and vertically sheared hurricane vortex are examined. Data from a high-resolution (2-km horizontal grid spacing) numerical simulation of real-case Hurricane Bonnie (1998) are used to calculate Lagrangian trajectories of air parcels in various subdomains of the hurricane (namely, the eye, eyewall, and near environment) to study the degree of interaction (transport and mixing) between these subdomains. It is found that 1) there is transport and mixing from the low-level eye to the eyewall that carries air possessing relatively high values of equivalent potential temperature (e), which can enhance the efficiency of the hurricane heat engine; 2) a portion of the low-level inflow of the hurricane bypasses the eyewall to enter the eye, and this air both replaces the mass of the low-level eye and lingers for a sufficient time (order 1 h) to acquire enhanced entropy characteristics through interaction with the ocean beneath the eye; 3) air in the mid- to upper-level eye is exchanged with the eyewall such that more than half the air of the eye is exchanged i n5hi nthis case of a sheared hurricane; and 4) that one-fifth of the mass in the eyewall at a height of 5 km has an origin in the mid- to upper-level environment where e is much less than in the eyewall, which ventilates the ensemble average eyewall e by about 1 K. Implications of these findings for the problem of hurricane intensity forecasting are briefly discussed.

Evaluation of bogus vortex techniques with four-dimensional variational data assimilation

Abstract The effectiveness of a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technique for creating “bogus” vortices in numerical simulations of hurricanes is evaluated in this study. A series of numerical experiments is conducted to generate initial vortices for Hurricane Georges and Bonnie (1998) in the Atlantic Ocean by assimilating bogus sea level pressure and wind information into a mesoscale numerical model (MM5). Several different strategies are tested for investigating the sensitivity of the initial vortex representation to the type of bogus information. While some of the results in this study confirm conclusions made in previous studies, some significant differences are obtained regarding the role of bogus wind data in creating a realistic bogus vortex. In contrast with previous studies in which the bogus wind data had only a marginal impact on creating a realistic hurricane, this study concludes that the wind information is very important because 1) with assimilation of only bogus sea ...

NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) Field Experiment

In August–September 2010, NASA, NOAA, and the National Science Foundation (NSF) conducted separate but closely coordinated hurricane field campaigns, bringing to bear a combined seven aircraft with both new and mature observing technologies. NASAs Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment, the subject of this article, along with NOAAs Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) and NSFs Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) experiment, obtained unprecedented observations of the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones. The major goal of GRIP was to better understand the physical processes that control hurricane formation and intensity change, specifically the relative roles of environmental and inner-core processes. A key focus of GRIP was the application of new technologies to address this important scientific goal, including the first ever use of the unmanned Global Hawk aircraft for hurricane science operations. NASA and NOAA conducted coord...

Reevaluating the Role of the Saharan Air Layer in Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis and Evolution

Abstract The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air frequently present over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. The nature of its impacts on hurricanes remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability at the base of the SAL; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts. Multiple NASA satellite datasets and NCEP global analyses are used to characterize the SAL’s properties and evolution in relation to tropical cyclones and to evaluate these potential negative influences. The SAL is shown to occur in a large-scale environment that is already characteristically dry as a result of large-scale subsidence. Strong surface heating and deep dry convective mixing enhance the dryness at low levels (prim...

The Transition Zone and Secondary Maximum of Radar Reflectivity behind a Midlatitude Squall Line: Results Retrieved from Doppler Radar Data

Abstract Thermodynamic and microphysical retrieval techniques are applied to dual-Doppler synthesized air motion fields for a midlatitude squall line, which passed through the Oklahoma-Kansas Preliminary Regional Experiment for the Stormscale Operational and Research Meteorology Program (PRE-STORM) observational array in Kansas and Oklahoma on 10–11 June 1985. The retrieved pressure and potential temperature fields are consistent with surface network and sounding data, while the retrieved microphysical fields show the characteristic secondary maximum of radar reflectivity in the stratiform region and the band of low reflectivity, or transition zone, lying between the leading convective line and the secondary maximum. The retrieved fields indicate the processes producing the secondary maximum and transition zone minimum of radar reflectivity more quantitatively than has been possible in previous studies. The primary processes accounting for these features of the radar reflectivity pattern were 1) the subst...

NASA's tropical cloud systems and processes experiment: Investigating tropical cyclogenesis and hurricane intensity change

In July 2005, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration investigated tropical cyclogenesis, hurricane structure, and intensity change in the eastern North Pacific and western Atlantic using its ER-2 high-altitude research aircraft. The campaign, called the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) experiment, was conducted in conjunction with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Hurricane Research Divisions Intensity Forecasting Experiment. A number of in situ and remote sensor datasets were collected inside and above four tropical cyclones representing a broad spectrum of tropical cyclone intensity and development in diverse environments. While the TCSP datasets directly address several key hypotheses governing tropical cyclone formation, including the role of vertical wind shear, dynamics of convective bursts, and upscale growth of the initial vortex, two of the storms sampled were also unusually strong, early season storms. Highlights from the genesis missions are described in...

Simulating the formation of Hurricane Isabel (2003) with AIRS data

[1] Using the AIRS retrieved temperature and humidity profiles, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) influence on the formation of Hurricane Isabel (2003) is simulated numerically with the MM5 model. The warmth and dryness of the SAL (the thermodynamic effect) is assimilated by use of the nudging technique, which enables the model thermodynamic state to be relaxed to the profiles of the AIRS retrieved data for the regions without cloud contamination. By incorporating the AIRS data, MM5 better simulates the large-scale flow patterns and the timing and location of the formation of Hurricane Isabel and its subsequent track. By comparing with an experiment without nudging of the AIRS data, it is shown that the SAL may have delayed the formation of Hurricane Isabel and inhibited the development of another tropical disturbance to the east. This case study confirms the argument by Dunion and Velden (2004) that the SAL can suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone activity by increasing the vertical wind shear, reducing the mean relative humidity, and stabilizing the environment at lower levels. Citation: Wu, L., S. A. Braun, J. J. Qu, and X. Hao (2006), Simulating the formation of Hurricane Isabel (2003) with AIRS data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L04804, doi:10.1029/2005GL024665.

A Numerical Study of Hurricane Erin (2001). Part II: Shear and the Organization of Eyewall Vertical Motion

A high-resolution numerical simulation of Hurricane Erin (2001) is used to examine the organization of vertical motion in the eyewall and how that organization responds to a large and rapid increase in the environmental vertical wind shear and subsequent decrease in shear. During the early intensification period, prior to the onset of significant shear, the upward motion in the eyewall was concentrated in small-scale convective updrafts that formed in association with regions of concentrated vorticity (herein termed mesovortices) with no preferred formation region around the eyewall. Asymmetric flow within the eye was weak. As the shear increased, an azimuthal wavenumber-1 asymmetry in storm structure developed with updrafts tending to occur on the downshear to downshear-left side of the eyewall. Continued intensification of the shear led to increasing wavenumber-1 asymmetry, large vortex tilt, and a change in eyewall structure and vertical motion organization. During this time, the eyewall structure was dominated by a vortex couplet with a cyclonic (anticyclonic) vortex on the downtilt-left (downtilt-right) side of the eyewall and strong asymmetric flow across the eye that led to strong mixing of eyewall vorticity into the eye. Upward motion was concentrated over an azimuthally broader region on the downtilt side of the eyewall, upstream of the cyclonic vortex, where low-level environmental inflow converged with the asymmetric outflow from the eye. As the shear diminished, the vortex tilt and wavenumber-1 asymmetry decreased, while the organization of updrafts trended back toward that seen during the weak shear period. Based upon the results for the Erin case, as well as that for a similar simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998), a conceptual model is developed for the organization of vertical motion in the eyewall as a function of the strength of the vertical wind shear. In weak to moderate shear, higher wavenumber asymmetries associated with eyewall mesovortices dominate the wavenumber-1 asymmetry associated with the shear so that convective-scale updrafts form when the mesovortices move into the downtilt side of the eyewall and dissipate on the uptilt side. Under strong shear conditions, the wavenumber-1 asymmetry, characterized by a prominent vortex couplet in the eyewall, dominates the vertical motion organization so that mesoscale ascent (with embedded convection) occurs over an azimuthally broader region on the downtilt side of the eyewall. Further research is needed to determine if these results apply more generally.