Jason C. Furtado

Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling

The most up to date consensus from global climate models predicts warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes to middle latitudes during boreal winter. However, recent trends in observed NH winter surface temperatures diverge from these projections. For the last two decades, large-scale cooling trends have existed instead across large stretches of eastern North America and northern Eurasia. We argue that this unforeseen trend is probably not due to internal variability alone. Instead, evidence suggests that summer and autumn warming trends are concurrent with increases in high-latitude moisture and an increase in Eurasian snow cover, which dynamically induces large-scale wintertime cooling. Understanding this counterintuitive response to radiative warming of the climate system has the potential for improving climate predictions at seasonal and longer timescales.

North Pacific Decadal Variability and Climate Change in the IPCC AR4 Models

AbstractThe two leading modes of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP), as well as their connections to tropical variability, are explored in the 24 coupled climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to evaluate North Pacific decadal variability (NPDV) in the past [twentieth century; climate of the twentieth century (20C3M) scenario] and future [twenty-first century; Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario] climate. Results indicate that the two dominant modes of North Pacific oceanic variability, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), do not exhibit significant changes in their spatial and temporal characteristics under greenhouse warming. However, the ability of the models to capture the dynamics associated with the leading North Pacific oceanic modes, including their link to the corresponding atmospheric forcing patterns and to tropical varia...

ENSO and meridional modes: A null hypothesis for Pacific climate variability

Pacific low-frequency variability (timescale > 8 years) exhibits a well-known El Nino-like pattern of basin-scale sea surface temperature, which is found in all the major modes of Pacific decadal climate. Using a set of climate model experiments and observations, we decompose the mechanisms contributing to the growth, peak, and decay of the Pacific low-frequency spatial variance. We find that the El Nino-like interdecadal pattern is established through the combined actions of Pacific meridional modes (MM) and the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Specifically, in the growth phase of the pattern, subtropical stochastic excitation of the MM energizes the tropical low-frequency variance acting as a red noise process. Once in the tropics, this low-frequency variance is amplified by ocean-atmospheric feedbacks as the pattern reaches its peak phase. At the same time, atmospheric teleconnections distribute the variance from the tropics to the extratropics, where the pattern ultimately decays. In this stochastic red noise model of Pacific climate, the timescale of the extra-tropical/tropical interactions (1–2 years) permits the stochastic excitation of the ENSO-like pattern of decadal and interdecadal variance.

Linking Siberian Snow Cover to Precursors of Stratospheric Variability

Previous research has linked wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) variability to indices of Siberian snow cover and upward wave activity flux in the preceding fall season. Here, daily data are used to examine the surface and tropospheric processes that occur as the link between snow cover and upward forcing into the stratosphere develops. October Eurasian mean snow cover is found to be significantly related to sea level pressure (SLP) and to lower-stratosphere (100hPa) meridional heat flux. Analysis of daily SLP and 100-hPa heat flux shows that in years with high October snow, the SLP is significantly higher from approximately 1 November to 15 December, and the 100-hPa heat flux is significantly increased with a two-week lag, from approximately 15 November to 31 December. During November‐December, there are periods with upward wave activity flux extending coherently from the surface to the stratosphere, and these events occur nearly twice as often in high snow years compared to low snow years. The vertical structure of these events is a westward-tilting pattern of high eddy heights, with the largest normalized anomalies near the surface in the same region as the snow and SLP changes. These results suggest that high SLP develops in response to the snow cover and this higher pressure, in turn, provides part of the structure of a surface-to-stratosphere wave activity flux event, thus making full events more likely. Implications for improved winter forecasts exist through recognition of these precursor signals.

A decadal precession of atmospheric pressures over the North Pacific

Sustained droughts over the Northwestern U.S. can alter water availability to the regions agricultural, hydroelectric, and ecosystem service sectors. Here we analyze decadal variations in precipitation across this region and reveal their relation to the slow (~10 year) progression of an atmospheric pressure pattern around the North Pacific, which we term the Pacific Decadal Precession (PDP). Observations corroborate that leading patterns of atmospheric pressure variability over the North Pacific evolve in a manner consistent with the PDP and manifest as different phases in its evolution. Further analysis of the data indicates that low-frequency fluctuations of the tropical Pacific Ocean state energize one phase of the PDP and possibly the other through coupling with the polar stratosphere. Evidence that many recent climate variations influencing the North Pacific/North American sector over the last few years are consistent with the current phase of the PDP confirms the need to enhance our predictive understanding of its behavior.

Paleoclimate Reconstructions of Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures from Precipitation Proxies: Methods, Uncertainties, and Nonstationarity

Abstract Proxy-based paleoclimate reconstructions of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) fields may lead to better constraints of tropical climate variability in climate model projections. In this study, the authors quantify uncertainties associated with two popular SST anomaly reconstruction methods that have been applied over the last millennium. The first reconstruction method exploits the high correlation between the leading modes of variability of global precipitation and SSTs; the second method uses a multiregression model that exploits the multiple modes of covariability between precipitation and SSTs. Regardless of the proxy network density, the first method has skill only in the tropical eastern Pacific and misses some ENSO events. By contrast, the multiregression approach demonstrates high skill throughout the tropical Indo-Pacific region and predicts all ENSO events correctly. The advantage of the multiregression method lies in the second mode of covariability between SSTs and precipitation,...

Dominant Time Scales of Potentially Predictable Precipitation Variations across the Continental United States

AbstractWhile low-frequency variations in precipitation amount, occurrence counts (hereafter “occurrence”), and intensity can take place on seasonal to multidecadal time scales, it is often unclear at which time scales these precipitation variations can be ascribed to potentially predictable, climate-induced changes versus simple, stochastic (i.e., random) precipitation event evolutions. This paper seeks to isolate the dominant time scales at which potentially predictable changes in observed precipitation characteristics occur over the continental United States and analyze sources of revealed potentially predictable precipitation variations for particular regions. The results highlight that at interannual time scales (here defined as those shorter than 7 years), the potential for predicting annual precipitation amounts tends to be higher than for annual event occurrence or intensity, with interannual potential predictability highest in both relatively dry and wet locations and lowest in transition regions...

Primary Atmospheric Drivers of Pluvial Years in the United States Great Plains

AbstractPrecipitation variability has increased in recent decades across the Great Plains (GP) of the United States. Drought and its associated drivers have been studied in the GP region; however, ...