Jason D. Baker

Extremely Low Genetic Diversity in the Endangered Hawaiian Monk Seal (Monachus schauinslandi)

Hunted to near extinction in the late 19th century, the endangered and endemic Hawaiian monk seal (Monachus schauinslandi) exhibits low variation at all molecular markers tested to date. Here we confirm extreme paucity of genetic diversity, finding polymorphisms at only 8 of 154 microsatellite loci tested (143 novel species-specific loci, 10 loci from Antarctic seals, and 1 previously characterized locus). This screening revealed unprecedentedly low levels of allelic diversity and heterozygosity (A = 1.1, H(e) = 0.026). Subsequent analyses of 2409 Hawaiian monk seals at the 8 polymorphic loci provide evidence for a bottleneck (P = 0.002), but simulations indicate low genetic diversity (H(e) < 0.09) prior to recorded human influence. There is little indication of contemporary inbreeding (F(IS) = 0.018) or population structure (K = 1 population). Minimal genetic variation did not prevent partial recovery by the late 1950s and may not be driving the current population decline to approximately 1200 seals. Nonetheless, genotyping nearly every individual living during the past 25 years sets a new benchmark for low genetic diversity in an endangered species.

Abundance of the Hawaiian monk seal in the main Hawaiian Islands

Most of the extant circa 1400 Hawaiian monk seals Monachus schauinslandi live in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI). However, an increasing number of sightings and births have recently occurred in the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI), where no systematic surveys of monk seals were conducted prior to 2000. We estimate that there were at least 45 seals in the MHI in 2000 and at least 52 in 2001, based on aerial surveys of all MHI coastlines, supplemented by sightings of seals from the ground. Moreover, annual births in the MHI have evidently increased since the mid-1990s. Weaned pups in the MHI are longer and have greater girth than those in the NWHI, perhaps reflecting greater per-capita abundance of prey resources. We think that Hawaiian monk seals have recently re-colonized the MHI, which were a very likely part of their historic range. Regardless, the MHI habitat appears to be favorable for continued increases of this endangered species.

EVALUATION OF CLOSED CAPTURE-RECAPTURE METHODS TO ESTIMATE ABUNDANCE OF HAWAIIAN MONK SEALS

Numerous capture-recapture methods have been developed to estimate abun- dance, yet the performance of these models is only rarely judged by comparison with true abundance. This study presents a rare opportunity to assess capture-recapture estimates in a free-ranging population with known minimum abundance. Hawaiian monk seal abundance historically has been characterized using a trend index or has been estimated using simple enumeration. Here, I evaluate the applicability of various closed-population capture-re- capture models to estimating Hawaiian monk seal abundance and its associated error. I analyzed 12 data sets (two years from each of six subpopulations) representing a wide variety of sampling and logistical scenarios, using models that explored the effects of animal size class (juvenile, subadult, or adult), tag status, and sighting location on initial capture and recapture probabilities. I also explored various models to account for capture hetero- geneity among individuals. Size and sex effects always significantly improved model fits, and tag status and location effects were also frequently influential. In most cases, abundance estimated from capture-recapture models was substantially lower than known minimum abundance, suggesting the influence of individual capture heterogeneity. Attributes of in- dividuals known to be alive, but not captured during systematic surveys, did not reveal patterns that explained sources of capture heterogeneity. In some cases, mixture models produced estimates that were less biased but were associated with very large confidence intervals. Among the model types examined, those available in Program CAPTURE per- formed best; although they are still prone to negative bias, these models nevertheless may prove useful in characterizing population trends in Hawaiian monk seals. This study dem- onstrates that selection of appropriate closed capture-recapture models can be substantially improved by independent validation.

Range-Wide Genetic Connectivity of the Hawaiian Monk Seal and Implications for Translocation

The Hawaiian monk seal (Monachus schauinslandi) is one of the most critically endangered marine mammals. Less than 1200 individuals remain, and the species is declining at a rate of approximately 4% per year as a result of juvenile starvation, shark predation, and entanglement in marine debris. Some of these problems may be alleviated by translocation; however, if island breeding aggregates are effectively isolated subpopulations, moving individuals may disrupt local adaptations. In these circumstances, managers must balance the pragmatic need of increasing survival with theoretical concerns about genetic viability. To assess range-wide population structure of the Hawaiian monk seal, we examined an unprecedented, near-complete genetic inventory of the species (n =1897 seals, sampled over 14 years) at 18 microsatellite loci. Genetic variation was not spatially partitioned ((w) =-0.03, p = 1.0), and a Bayesian clustering method provided evidence of one panmictic population (K =1). Pairwise F(ST) comparisons (among 7 island aggregates over 14 annual cohorts) did not reveal temporally stable, spatial reproductive isolation. Our results coupled with long-term tag-resight data confirm seal movement and gene flow throughout the Hawaiian Archipelago. Thus, human-mediated translocation of seals among locations is not likely to result in genetic incompatibilities.

Projecting marine mammal distribution in a changing climate

Climate-related shifts in marine mammal range and distribution have been observed in some populations; however, the nature and magnitude of future responses are uncertain in novel environments projected under climate change. This poses a challenge for agencies charged with management and conservation of these species. Specialized diets, restricted ranges, or reliance on specific substrates or sites (e.g., for pupping) make many marine mammal populations particularly vulnerable to climate change. High-latitude, predominantly ice-obligate, species have experienced some of the largest changes in habitat and distribution and these are expected to continue. Efforts to predict and project marine mammal distributions to date have emphasized data-driven statistical habitat models. These have proven successful for short time-scale (e.g., seasonal) management activities, but confidence that such relationships will hold for multi-decade projections and novel environments is limited. Recent advances in mechanistic modeling of marine mammals (i.e., models that rely on robust physiological and ecological principles expected to hold under climate change) may address this limitation. The success of such approaches rests on continued advances in marine mammal ecology, behavior, and physiology together with improved regional climate projections. The broad scope of this challenge suggests initial priorities be placed on vulnerable species or populations (those already experiencing declines or projected to undergo ecological shifts resulting from climate changes that are consistent across climate projections) and species or populations for which ample data already exist (with the hope that these may inform climate change sensitivities in less well observed species or populations elsewhere). The sustained monitoring networks, novel observations, and modeling advances required to more confidently project marine mammal distributions in a changing climate will ultimately benefit management decisions across time-scales, further promoting the resilience of marine mammal populations.

ESTIMATING CONTACT RATES OF HAWAIIAN MONK SEALS (NEOMONACHUS SCHAUINSLANDI) USING SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS

Abstract Understanding disease transmission dynamics, which are in part mediated by rates and patterns of social contact, is fundamental to predicting the likelihood, rate of spread, impacts, and mitigation of disease outbreaks in wildlife populations. Contact rates, which are important parameters required for epidemiologic models, are difficult to estimate. The endangered Hawaiian monk seal (Neomonachus schauinslandi) may be particularly vulnerable to morbillivirus outbreaks, due to its low abundance, lack of genetic diversity, and history of isolation from mammalian diseases. Morbillivirus epizootics have had devastating effects on other seal populations. We constructed social networks based on visual observations of individually identifiable monk seals associating onshore to estimate contact rates, assuming random mixing, and also to investigate contact patterns of different age and sex classes. Contact rates estimated from two island populations in 4 yr were remarkably similar, indicating any two individuals have about a one in 1,000 chance of making contact on any given day. Further, contact patterns within and among age and sex classes were statistically different from random. The methods we used could be broadly applied to empirically derive contact rates using association data. These rates are critical for epidemiologic modelling to simulate wildlife disease outbreaks and to inform science-based prevention and mitigation programs.

Model recommendations meet management reality: implementation and evaluation of a network-informed vaccination effort for endangered Hawaiian monk seals

Where disease threatens endangered wildlife populations, substantial resources are required for management actions such as vaccination. While network models provide a promising tool for identifying key spreaders and prioritizing efforts to maximize efficiency, population-scale vaccination remains rare, providing few opportunities to evaluate performance of model-informed strategies under realistic scenarios. Because the endangered Hawaiian monk seal could be heavily impacted by disease threats such as morbillivirus, we implemented a prophylactic vaccination programme. We used contact networks to prioritize vaccinating animals with high contact rates. We used dynamic network models to simulate morbillivirus outbreaks under real and idealized vaccination scenarios. We then evaluated the efficacy of model recommendations in this real-world vaccination project. We found that deviating from the model recommendations decreased the efficiency; requiring 44% more vaccinations to achieve a given decrease in outbreak size. However, we gained protection more quickly by vaccinating available animals rather than waiting to encounter priority seals. This work demonstrates the value of network models, but also makes trade-offs clear. If vaccines were limited but time was ample, vaccinating only priority animals would maximize herd protection. However, where time is the limiting factor, vaccinating additional lower-priority animals could more quickly protect the population.

Range-wide patterns in Hawaiian monk seal movements among islands and atolls

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