Jason J. Rohweder

POWER TO DETECT TREND IN SHORT-TERM TIME SERIES OF BIRD ABUNDANCE

Abstract Avian point counts for population monitoring are often collected over a short timespan (e.g., 3–5 years). We examined whether power was adequate (power ≥0.80) in short-duration studies to warrant the calculation of trend estimates. We modeled power to detect trends in abundance indices of eight bird species occurring across three floodplain habitats (wet prairie, early successional forest, and mature forest) as a function of trend magnitude, sample size, and species-specific sampling and among-year variance components. Point counts (5 min) were collected from 365 locations distributed among 10 study sites along the lower Missouri River; counts were collected over the period 2002 to 2004. For all study species, power appeared adequate to detect trends in studies of short duration (three years) at a single site when exponential declines were relatively large in magnitude (more than −5% year−1) and the sample of point counts per year was ≥30. Efforts to monitor avian trends with point counts in small managed lands (i.e., refuges and parks) should recognize this sample size restriction by including point counts from offsite locations as a means of obtaining sufficient numbers of samples per strata. Trends of less than −5% year−1 are not likely to be consistently detected for most species over the short term, but short-term monitoring may still be useful as the basis for comparisons with future surveys.

Avian Assemblages in the Lower Missouri River Floodplain

Floodplain habitat provides important migration and breeding habitat for birds in the midwestern United States. However, few studies have examined how the avian assemblage changes with different stages of floodplain forest succession in the midwestern United States. In spring and summer from 2002 to 2004, we conducted 839 point counts in wet prairie/forbs fields, 547 point counts in early successional forests, and 434 point counts in mature forests to describe the migrating and breeding bird assemblage in the lower Missouri River floodplain. We recorded 131, 121, and 141 species in the three respective habitats, a number higher than most locations in the midwestern United States and comprising > 15% of all avian species in North America. Avian species diversity generally increased from west to east along the river, differed among land cover classes, but overlapped between seasons (migration and breeding) and years. Wet prairies were particularly important for conservation as there were 20 species of high conservation concern observed, including Dickcissels (Spiza americana). Important species for monitoring biotic integrity included the Northern Harrier (Circus cyaneus) and Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) in wet prairie, Bell’s Vireo (Vireo bellii) in early successional forest, and Northern Parula (Parula americana) and Prothonotary Warbler (Protonotaria citrea) in mature forest.

Changes in aquatic vegetation and floodplain land cover in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers (1989–2000–2010)

Quantifying changes in the cover of river-floodplain systems can provide important insights into the processes that structure these landscapes as well as the potential consequences to the ecosystem services they provide. We examined net changes in 13 different aquatic and floodplain land cover classes using photo interpreted maps of the navigable portions of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR, above the confluence with the Ohio River) and Illinois River from 1989 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010. We detected net decreases in vegetated aquatic area in nearly all river reaches from 1989 to 2000. The only river reaches that experienced a subsequent recovery of vegetated aquatic area from 2000 to 2010 were located in the northern portion of the UMR (above navigation pool 14) and two reaches in the Illinois River. Changes on the floodplain were dominated by urban development, which increased in nearly every river reach studied from 1989 to 2000. Agricultural lands declined in most river reaches from 2000 to 2010. The loss of agricultural land cover in the northern UMR was accompanied by increases in forest cover, whereas in the lower UMR and Illinois River, declines in agriculture were accompanied by increases in forest and shallow marsh communities. The changes in aquatic vegetation occupied between 5 and 20% of the total aquatic area and are likely associated with previously reported regional improvements in water clarity, while smaller (1–15% of the total floodplain area) changes in anthropogenic land cover types on the floodplain are likely driven by broad-scale socio-economic conditions.

Reed Canary Grass

Aerial photographs for Pools 2-13 Upper Mississippi River System were collected in color infrared (CIR) in August of 2010 at 8 /pixel and 16 /pixel respectively using a mapping-grade Applanix DSS 439 digital aerial camera. All CIR aerial photos were orthorectified, mosaicked, compressed, and served via the UMESC Internet site. The CIR aerial photos were interpreted and automated using a 31-class LTRM vegetation classification. The 2010 LCU databases were prepared by or under the supervision of competent and trained professional staff using documented standard operated procedures and are subject to rigorous quality control (QC) assurances (NBS, 1995). The 2010/2011 land cover/land use spatial data sets for pools 2 - 13 were combined into one data set for this updated product and only wet meadow and wet meadow shrub polygons were retained. The aerial images underlying these polygons were visually re-interpreted to ascertain if >80% of the polygon was dominated by Phalaris arundinacea (Reed canarygrass). Polygons were then attributed with information categorizing them accordingly.

Anticipated effects of development on habitat fragmentation and movement of mammals into and out of the Schoodic District, Acadia National Park, Maine

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