Nathan R. De Jager

Curve Fit: a pixel‐level raster regression tool for mapping spatial patterns

Summary 1. Despite the fact that pixels (i.e. picture elements) are the basic sampling units of maps, we are aware of no software package or tool that allows users to model changes that may occur at such fine spatial resolutions over broad geographic extents. 2. Curve Fit is an extension to the application ArcMap that allows users to conduct linear or nonlinear regression analysis on the range of values found within input ras ter data sets (geo-referenced images), independently for each pixel. 3. Outputs consist of raster surfaces of regression model parameter estimates, standard errors, goodness-of-fit estimates and multimodel inference measures. 4. Curve fit outputs characterize continuous spatial or temporal change across a series of raster data sets.

Effects of Flooding on Ion Exchange Rates in an Upper Mississippi River Floodplain Forest Impacted by Herbivory, Invasion, and Restoration

We examined effects of flooding on supply rates of 14 nutrients in floodplain areas invaded by Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass), areas restored to young successional forests (browsed by white-tailed deer and unbrowsed), and remnant mature forests in the Upper Mississippi River floodplain. Plant Root Simulator ion-exchange probes were deployed for four separate 28-day periods. The first deployment occurred during flooded conditions, while the three subsequent deployments were conducted during progressively drier periods. Time after flooding corresponded with increases in NO3−-N, K+ and Zn+2, decreases in H2PO4−-P, Fe+3, Mn+2, and B(OH)4-B, a decrease followed by an increase in NH4+-N, Ca+2, Mg+2 and Al+3, and an increase followed by a decrease for SO4−2-S. Plant community type had weak to no effects on nutrient supply rates compared to the stronger effects of flooding duration. Our results suggest that seasonal dynamics in floodplain nutrient availability are similarly driven by flood pulses in different community types. However, reed canarygrass invasion has potential to increase availability of some nutrients, while restoration of forest cover may promote recovery of nutrient availability to that observed in reference mature forests.

Effects of flood frequency and duration on the allometry of community-level stem size-density distributions in a floodplain forest

PREMISE OF THE STUDY Consistent with the self-thinning law of plant population ecology, Niklas et al. in 2003 proposed that stem size-density distributions (SDDs) of multispecies forest communities should change in very predictable ways as a function of the effects of past disturbances on average tree size. To date, empirical tests of this hypothesis have not been pursued in floodplain settings. METHODS SDDs were constructed using tree stem-size and density data from forest plots positioned along a flood frequency and duration gradient in the Upper Mississippi River floodplain. KEY RESULTS As flooding (both frequency and duration) increased, several small tree species were eliminated from forest plots and the persistent species increased in their size. Consistent with the predictions of Niklas et al., these changes corresponded with overall decreases in stem density, increases in average stem size, and reductions in both the Y-intercept and slope terms of the community-level SDDs. CONCLUSIONS This study adds to a growing list of examples suggesting that theories related to forest community composition and biomass must account for both the broader effects of disturbances as well as the underlying biochemical processes that regulate plant growth. Further study is needed to fully address the role different disturbance frequencies play in determining plant density, diversity, average size, and associated size\frequency distributions.

Winter Browse Selection by White-Tailed Deer and Implications for Bottomland Forest Restoration in the Upper Mississippi River Valley, USA

ABSTRACT: White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) forage selectively, modifying upland forest species composition and in some cases shifting ecosystems to alternative stable states. Few studies, however, have investigated plant selection by deer in bottomland forests. Herbaceous invasive species are common in wetlands and their expansion could be promoted if deer avoid them and preferentially feed on native woody species. We surveyed plant species composition and winter deer browsing in 14 floodplain forest restoration sites along the Upper Mississippi River and tributaries. Tree seedling density declined rapidly with increasing cover of invasive Phalaris arundinacea, averaging less than 1 per m2 in all sites in which the grass was present. Deer browsed ∼46% of available tree seedling stems (branches) at mainland restorations, compared to ∼3% at island sites. Across all tree species, the number of browsed stems increased linearly with the number available and responded unimodally to tree height. Maximum browsing rates were observed on trees with high stem abundances (>10 per plant) and of heights between 50 and 150 cm. Deer preferred Ulmus americana and Acer saccharinum, and avoided Fraxinus pennsylvanica, Acer negundo, and Quercus spp. at mainland sites, and did not browse Phalaris arundinacea if present. Depending on plant growth responses to herbivory and the competitive effects of unbrowsed species, our results suggest that selective foraging could promote the expansion of invasive species and/or alter tree species composition in bottomland forest restorations. Islands may, however, serve as refuges from browsing on a regional scale.

Changes in aquatic vegetation and floodplain land cover in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers (1989–2000–2010)

Quantifying changes in the cover of river-floodplain systems can provide important insights into the processes that structure these landscapes as well as the potential consequences to the ecosystem services they provide. We examined net changes in 13 different aquatic and floodplain land cover classes using photo interpreted maps of the navigable portions of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR, above the confluence with the Ohio River) and Illinois River from 1989 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010. We detected net decreases in vegetated aquatic area in nearly all river reaches from 1989 to 2000. The only river reaches that experienced a subsequent recovery of vegetated aquatic area from 2000 to 2010 were located in the northern portion of the UMR (above navigation pool 14) and two reaches in the Illinois River. Changes on the floodplain were dominated by urban development, which increased in nearly every river reach studied from 1989 to 2000. Agricultural lands declined in most river reaches from 2000 to 2010. The loss of agricultural land cover in the northern UMR was accompanied by increases in forest cover, whereas in the lower UMR and Illinois River, declines in agriculture were accompanied by increases in forest and shallow marsh communities. The changes in aquatic vegetation occupied between 5 and 20% of the total aquatic area and are likely associated with previously reported regional improvements in water clarity, while smaller (1–15% of the total floodplain area) changes in anthropogenic land cover types on the floodplain are likely driven by broad-scale socio-economic conditions.

Anticipated effects of development on habitat fragmentation and movement of mammals into and out of the Schoodic District, Acadia National Park, Maine

..........................................................................................................................................................