Jason Matthew DeBacker

Rising Inequality: Transitory or Persistent? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Tax Returns

We use a new, large, and confidential panel of tax returns to study the persistent-versus-transitory nature of rising inequality in male labor earnings and in total household income, both before and after taxes, in the United States over the period 1987-2009. We apply various statistical decomposition methods that allow for different ways of characterizing persistent and transitory income components. For male labor earnings, we find that the entire increase in cross-sectional inequality over our sample period was driven by an increase in the dispersion of the persistent component of earnings. For total household income, we find that most of the increase in inequality reflects an increase in the dispersion of the persistent income component, but the transitory component also appears to have played some role. We also show that the tax system partly mitigated the increase in income inequality, but not sufficiently to alter its broadly increasing trend over the period.

Legal Enforcement and Corporate Behavior: An Analysis of Tax Aggressiveness after an Audit

We study how legal enforcement changes subsequent corporate behavior. Using confidential IRS data, we find that corporations increase their tax aggressiveness after an audit for a few years and then reduce it gradually. In the long run, audited corporations become more tax aggressive than before the audit, reducing their effective tax rate by around 14%. This finding is in contrast to the usual expectation that subjects should behave better after experiencing legal enforcement, at least for some time. We show that this U-shaped impact indicates a strategic calculation of firms, including Bayesian updating of audit risk. This adverse effect on illicit activities calls for reexamining both existing theory and current policy of legal enforcement.Contrary to common expectations, legal enforcement may increase subsequent corporate misbehavior. Using Internal Revenue Service and financial statement data, we find that corporations gradually increase their tax aggressiveness for a few years following an audit and then reduce it sharply. We show that this U-shaped impact is consistent with strategic responses on the part of firms and with Bayesian updating of audit risk. This adverse effect on corporate behavior calls for a reexamination of both the theory and policy of legal enforcement.

The properties of income risk in privately held businesses

Our paper represents the first attempt in the literature to estimate the properties of business income risk from privately held businesses in the US. Using a new, large, and confidential panel of US income tax returns for the period 1987-2009, we extensively document the empirical stylized facts about the evolution of various business income risk measures over time. We find that business income is much riskier than labor income, not only because of the probability of business exit, but also because of higher income fluctuations, conditional on no exit. We show that business income is less persistent, but is also characterized by higher probabilities of extreme upward transition, compared to labor income. Furthermore, the distribution of percent changes for business income is more dispersed than that for labor income, and it also indicates that business income faces substantially higher tail risks. Our results suggest that the high-income households are more likely to bear both the big positive and the big negative business income percent changes.

Rising Inequality: Transitory or Permanent? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Tax Returns 1987-2006

We use a new, large, and confidential panel of tax returns from the Internal Revenue Service to shed light on the permanent versus transitory nature of rising inequality in individual male labor earnings and in total household income, both before and after taxes, in the United States over the period 1987-2006. Due to the quality and the significant size of our dataset, we are able to conduct our analysis using rich and precisely estimated error-components models of income dynamics. Our main specification finds evidence for a quadratic heterogeneous income profiles component and a random walk component in permanent earnings, and for a moving-average component in autoregressive transitory earnings. We find that the increase in inequality over our sample period was entirely permanent for male earnings, and predominantly permanent for household income. We also show that the tax system, though reducing inequality, nonetheless did not materially affect its increasing trend. Furthermore, we compare our model-based findings against those of simpler, non-model based inequality decomposition methods. We show that the results for the trends in the evolution of the permanent and transitory variances are remarkably similar across methods, whereas the results for the shares of those variances in cross-sectional inequality differ widely. Further investigation into the sources of these differences suggests that simpler methods produce erroneous decompositions because they cannot flexibly capture the relative degree of persistence of the transitory component of income.

Rising Inequality: Transitory or Permanent? New Evidence from a U.S. Panel of Household Income 1987-2006

We use a new and large panel dataset of household income to shed light on the permanent versus transitory nature of rising inequality in individual male labor earnings and in total household income, both before and after taxes, in the United States over the period 1987-2006. Due to the quality and the significant size of our dataset, we are able to conduct our analysis using rich and precisely estimated error-components models of income dynamics. Our main specification finds evidence for a quadratic heterogeneous income profiles component and a random walk component in permanent earnings, and for a moving-average component in autoregressive transitory earnings. We find that the increase in inequality over our sample period was entirely permanent for male earnings, and predominantly permanent for household income. We also show that the tax system, though reducing inequality, nonetheless did not materially affect its increasing trend. Furthermore, we compare our model-based findings against those of simpler, non-model based inequality decomposition methods. We show that the results for the trends in the evolution of the permanent and transitory variances are remarkably similar across methods, whereas the results for the shares of those variances in cross-sectional inequality differ widely. Further investigation into the sources of these differences suggests that simpler methods produce erroneous decompositions because they cannot flexibly capture the relative degree of persistence of the transitory component of income.

Capital Taxes with Real and Financial Frictions

This paper studies how frictions, both real and financial, interact with capital tax policy in a dynamic, general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms. Comparative statics show that tax policy can have substantially different effects depending upon the frictions present. Analytical and numerical exercises show that accounting for firm heterogeneity is important when evaluating the responses of economic aggregates to capital tax policy. The effects of tax cuts on allocational efficiency are found to be quantitatively significant, often accounting for the majority of the change in output following a reduction in taxes on capital.

Once Bitten, Twice Shy? The Lasting Impact of Enforcement on Tax Compliance

We examine the impact of enforcement on subsequent compliance behavior by taxpayers. Exploiting waves of randomized audits by the Internal Revenue Service from 2006 to 2009, we find three long-run responses by taxpayers. First, audits increase tax payments substantially in following years, but this effect is short-lived when third-party reporting is not available. Second, taxpayers with high income volatility revert to their preaudit behavior quickly. Third, sophisticated taxpayers are affected less by enforcement. These responses reveal how taxpayers perceive the enforcement risk and change their noncompliance according to the dynamics of the information barrier between them and the enforcement agency.

Integrating Microsimulation Models of Tax Policy into a DGE Macroeconomic Model: A Canonical Example

This article proposes a method for integrating individual effective tax rates and marginal tax rates computed from a microsimulation (partial equilibrium) model of tax policy with a dynamic general equilibrium model of tax policy that can provide macroeconomic analysis or dynamic scores of tax reforms. Our approach captures the rich heterogeneity, realistic demographics, and tax-code detail of the microsimulation model and allows this detail to inform a general equilibrium model with a relatively high degree of heterogeneity. In addition, we propose a functional form in which tax rates depend jointly on the levels of both capital income and labor income.

The Impact of State Taxes on Pass-Through Businesses: Evidence from the 2012 Kansas Income Tax Reform

In 2012, Kansas undertook a large-scale tax reform that excluded certain forms of business income from individual taxation. In theory, these changes enhance the incentives to undertake more real economic activity such as new business formation or increases in employment or investment. But, the reform also shifted the incentives to avoid taxation by recharacterizing income sources. This paper provides evidence of these effects using federal administrative taxpayer data. Drawing on these data from 2010 to 2014, we find evidence suggesting that, at both extensive and intensive margins, the behavioral responses were overwhelmingly tax avoidance rather than real supply side responses.