Kerk L. Phillips

Fiscal decentralisation and IDC economic growth: An empirical investigation

The impact of fiscal decentralisation on LDC economic growth and development is widely debated in the development literature. Notwithstanding this, there has been little attempt to test systematically this relationship. Accordingly, in this note we present an empirical examination of the relationship between the level of fiscal decentralisation and economic growth rates across a sample of twenty-three LDCsfrom 1974 to 1991. We fail to find, however, any strong, systematic relationship between the two among our sample of LDCs.

Is Schumpeterian 'Creative Destruction' a Plausible Source of Endogenous Real Business Cycle Shocks?

This paper looks at the linkages between growth and business cycles by bringing together two strands of literature. We incorporate a quality ladders engine of growth into an otherwise standard real business cycle model. Our fundamental question is, can Schumpeters creative destruction process which leads to technological improvement over time also generate realistic business cycles? We use a standard real business cycle approach to solve for rules of motion in our state variables and proceed to generate artificial time series. We compare the statistical properties of these series with their historical counterparts to determine if the model mimics the real world closely. One advantage our approach has over the standard approach is that the trend component is included in our artificial series just as it is in the data. Hence, we are not tied to any particular filtering method when we compare simulations with the real world data. Quantitative analysis reveals the model is at least as capable of accounting for key features of fluctuations at various frequencies as a model with exogenous technology shocks. Moreover, the model can do so without relying as heavily on a highly persistent generating process for such exogenous shocks as standard models must.

Bootstrapping structural VARs: Avoiding a potential bias in confidence intervals for impulse response functions

Constructing bootstrap confidence intervals for impulse response functions (IRFs) from structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models has become standard practice in empirical macroeconomic research. The accuracy of such confidence intervals can deteriorate severely, however, if the bootstrap IRFs are biased. In this paper, we document an apparently common source of bias in the estimation of the VAR error covariance matrix. The bias is easily corrected with a straightforward scale adjustment. This bias is often unrecognized because it only affects the bootstrap estimates of the error variance, not the original OLS estimates. Nevertheless, as we illustrate here, analytically, with sampling experiments, and in an example from the literature, the bootstrap error variance bias can have significant distorting effects on bootstrap IRF confidence intervals even if the original IRF estimate relies on unbiased parameter estimates.

The forward bias: is it a money tree?

Abstract This paper examines the forward discount anomaly, i.e. the fact that the forward exchange rate is a biased predictor of the future spot rate. We run a series of rolling regressions which we use to predict the value of the future spot rate based upon this bias. We show that the average return from an investment strategy based on the bias in forward exchange rates is in many cases insignificantly different from zero. In other cases, however, the return is significantly positive. Hence the in-sample bias does not necessarily lead to a money-making strategy for all currencies.

Potential economic reforms in North Korea: a dynamic general equilibrium model

We use a dynamic general equilibrium model to examine hypothetical market reforms in North Korea. We model partial reform, in which producers choose capital allocations across sectors, with the government still fixing total capital. We also consider two full market reform scenarios. In one, public infrastructure investment remains unchanged, while, in the other, it increases substantially. In all scenarios, we assume a closed economy and a constant military size. Our simulations show little hope for the North Korean economy without boosting infrastructure. Although all of the reforms raise consumption, only significant increases in infrastructure investment bring positive economic growth.

What is the shape of real exchange rate nonlinearity

Evidence that real exchange rate dynamics can be described using models which exhibit nonlinear mean reversion has been mounting over the past decade. This article attempts to better understand the shape of real exchange rate nonlinearity through the use of the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model and the newly proposed skewed generalized error transition function. The advantage of this transition function it that it nests popularly used transition functions through simple parameter constraints. This allows the use of nested model selection tests. It is shown that more flexible transition functions are preferred in many cases over the commonly used exponential transition function. The results suggest that most of the real exchange rates studied in this article are better described by discrete threshold models rather than STAR models.

Natural Limits of Wealth Inequality and the Effectiveness of Tax Policy

This article examines Thomas Piketty’s thesis that there are no natural limits on the accumulation of wealth. We undertake our examination in the context of a simple general equilibrium model with infinitely lived dynasties. We show that extreme wealth accumulation does not happen in general equilibrium unless capital and labor are substitutes, an assumption which also leads to unbalanced growth. We also show that even with unbalanced growth, differences in rates of return and effective labor are not sufficient to cause unbounded inequality. Only permanent savings rate differences can lead to extreme wealth concentration. Finally, we show that while a flat wealth tax will not eliminate extreme wealth concentration, both a graduated wealth tax and a flat income tax will.

Specialization and Market Development as Engines of Growth

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explain the following stylized facts. First, the share of household production in total output has fallen over time as the economy has grown. Second, services as a percent of GDP have risen at the same time. Design/methodology/approach - This paper constructs an original model of growth based on Adam Smiths notions of specialization and extent of the market. Growth depends on the specialization of labor in market production and learning-by-doing in transactions services. It is a model of sustained, but not infinite, growth. Findings - It is found that the model can replicate the above stylized facts for reasonable parameterizations. Originality/value - This paper shows that it is possible to build growth models that match the historic experience without relying in unbounded growth. Models like this may be very useful in understanding the processes that drive growth.

Historical overview of the transition to monetary union in Europe

This paper outlines the organization structure of the European System of Central Banks, comprised of the European Central Bank and the central banks of European Monetary Union member countries. Also outlined are the policy procedures used by the European Central Bank as it implements a common monetary policy for all member countries.

Integrating Microsimulation Models of Tax Policy into a DGE Macroeconomic Model: A Canonical Example

This article proposes a method for integrating individual effective tax rates and marginal tax rates computed from a microsimulation (partial equilibrium) model of tax policy with a dynamic general equilibrium model of tax policy that can provide macroeconomic analysis or dynamic scores of tax reforms. Our approach captures the rich heterogeneity, realistic demographics, and tax-code detail of the microsimulation model and allows this detail to inform a general equilibrium model with a relatively high degree of heterogeneity. In addition, we propose a functional form in which tax rates depend jointly on the levels of both capital income and labor income.