Jason T. Carmichael

Shifting public opinion on climate change: an empirical assessment of factors influencing concern over climate change in the U.S., 2002–2010

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the factors affecting U.S. public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2010. Utilizing Stimson’s method of constructing aggregate opinion measures, data from 74 separate surveys over a 9-year period are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. We examine five factors that should account for changes in levels of concern: 1) extreme weather events, 2) public access to accurate scientific information, 3) media coverage, 4) elite cues, and 5) movement/countermovement advocacy. A time-series analysis indicates that elite cues and structural economic factors have the largest effect on the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, this coverage is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Weather extremes have no effect on aggregate public opinion. Promulgation of scientific information to the public on climate change has a minimal effect. The implication would seem to be that information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern.

The Political Sociology of the Death Penalty: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis

Despite the interest in the death penalty, no statistical studies have isolated the social and political forces that account for the legality of this punishment. Racial or ethnic threat theories suggest that the death penalty will more likely be legal in jurisdictions with relatively large black or Hispanic populations. Economic threat explanations suggest that this punishment will be present in unequal areas. Jurisdictions with a more conservative public or a stronger law-and-order Republican party should be more likely to legalize the death penalty as well. After controlling for social disorganization, region, period, and violent crime, panel analyses suggest that minority presence and economic inequality enhance the likelihood of a legal death penalty. Conservative values and Republican strength in the legislature have equivalent effects. A supplemental time-to-event analysis supports these conclusions. The results suggest that a political approach has explanatory power because threat effects expressed through politics and effects that are directly political invariably account for decisions about the legality of capital punishment

Vigilantism, Current Racial Threat, and Death Sentences

Capital punishment is the most severe punishment, yet little is known about the social conditions that lead to death sentences. Racial threat explanations imply that this sanction will be imposed more often in jurisdictions with larger minority populations, but some scholars suggest that a tradition of vigilante violence leads to increased death sentences. This study tests the combined explanatory power of both accounts by assessing statistical interactions between past lynchings and the recent percentage of African Americans after political conditions and other plausible effects are held constant. Findings from count models based on different samples, data, and estimators suggest that racial threat and lynchings combine to produce increased death sentences, but the presence of liberal political values explains the absence of death sentences. These findings both confirm and refine the political version of conflict theory because they suggest that the effects of current racial threat and past vigilantism largely directed against newly freed slaves jointly contribute to current lethal but legal reactions to racial threat.

Ideology, Social Threat, and the Death Sentence: Capital Sentences across Time and Space

Capital punishment is the most severe criminal penalty, yet we know little about the factors that produce jurisdictional differences in the use of the death sentence. Political explanations emphasize conservative values and the strength of more conservative political parties. Threat accounts suggest that this sentence will be more likely in jurisdictions with larger minority populations. After controlling for many explanations using two-equation count models, the results show that larger numbers of death sentences are probable in states with greater membership in conservative churches and in states with higher violent crime rates. The findings suggest that political conservatism, a stronger Republican party, and racial threat explain whether a state ever used the death sentence, but these hypotheses do not account for the number of death sentences beyond one. By highlighting the explanatory power of public ideologies, these findings support political explanations for the harshest criminal punishment.

Subordination and Violence against State Control Agents: Testing Political Explanations for Lethal Assaults against the Police

This study examines the relationships between economic and political subordination and the use of lethal force against state officials charged with controlling the underclass. More specifically, it uses count estimators to assess the factors that lead to felonious killings of police officers in the largest U.S. cities. Economic and racial inequality and the presence of a black mayor are used to assess economic and political subordination. Threat effects are measured by the percentage of blacks and by growth in this percentage. With violent crime and social disorganization indicators held constant, the results show that police killings are most likely in cities with the largest differences in black-white resources, but the presence of a black mayor reduces these killings. In a supplemental analysis, the same factors explain the more common injurious assaults against officers. The findings suggest that forms of political subordination increase the probability of violence directed against the street-level state-control agents.

Who survives on death row? An individual and contextual analysis

What are the relationships between death row offender attributes, social arrangements, and executions? Partly because public officials control executions, theorists view this sanction as intrinsically political. Although the literature has focused on offender attributes that lead to death sentences, the post-sentencing stage is at least as important. States differ sharply in their willingness to execute and less than 10 percent of those given a death sentence are executed. To correct the resulting problems with censored data, this study uses a discrete-time event history analysis to detect the individual and state-level contextual factors that shape execution probabilities. The findings show that minority death row inmates convicted of killing whites face higher execution probabilities than other capital offenders. Theoretically relevant contextual factors with explanatory power include minority presence in nonlinear form, political ideology, and votes for Republican presidential candidates. Inasmuch as there is little or no systematic research on the individual and contextual factors that influence execution probabilities, these findings fill important gaps in the literature.

BUILDING ENVIRONMENTALISM: The Founding of Environmental Movement Organizations in the United States, 1900–2000

Between the 19th and the mid-20th century, the environmental movement transformed American culture, forcing a rethinking of the “Manifest Destiny” ideology that had long dominated political thinking toward an understanding of the need to protect and restore the balance between humans and nature. In 1900, there were only a few environmental movement organizations (EMOs), but by 2000, there were over 6,000 national and regional EMOs and over 20,000 local EMOs. What drove this phenomenal growth of EMOs? We examine a 100-year time series of EMO founding, showing that, in addition to the “legitimation-and-competition” effects of organizational density, EMO founding is facilitated by the discourse-creative activities of critical communities, objective threats in terms of air pollution, foundation giving, and powerful political allies in the presidency and Congress. Environmental discourses also legitimized and competed against one another, favoring “early risers” and preservationist discourse. Environmental mobilization needs to be understood in terms of the creation of new discursive frames that identify environmental problems, as well as objective environmental threats, resources, and political opportunities.

The great divide: understanding the role of media and other drivers of the partisan divide in public concern over climate change in the USA, 2001–2014

Recent scholarship has identified a large and growing divide on how Republicans and Democrats view the issue of climate change. A number of these studies have suggested that this polarization is a product of systematic efforts to spread doubt about the reality of climate change through the media in general and conservative media in particular. However, research to date has largely relied on speculation about such a relationship rather than empirical evidence. We improve on existing research by conducting an empirical analysis of the factors affecting national-level, quarterly shifts in public concern about climate change between January 2001 and December 2014. Our analysis focuses on the potential role played by four factors that should account for changes in levels of concern regarding climate change: (1) media coverage, (2) extreme weather, (3) issuance of major scientific reports, and (4) changes in economic activity and foreign conflict. Some results suggest that partisan media influences beliefs in ways expected by communication scholars who describe “echo chamber” effects and “boomerang” effects. Among other supporting evidence, we find that partisan media not only strengthen views of like-minded audiences but also when Republicans are presented with opposing frames about climate change from liberal media, they appear to reject the messages such that they are less concerned about the issue. Findings also demonstrate that the dissemination of science increases concern about climate change among Democrats but has no influence on Republicans. Finally, extreme weather does not increase concern among Democrats or Republicans. Implications for future research are discussed.

Punishing Juvenile Offenders as Adults: An Analysis of the Social and Political Determinants of Juvenile Prison Admissions across the United States

Abstract Although the punishment of juvenile offenders has increasingly become an issue of major concern to the public, few studies test the governments coercive response to offending by this particular group. This article addresses the issue by examining the variation in the willingness of courts in the United States to adjudicate juvenile offenders in the adult criminal courts and sentence them to adult correctional facilities. I use pooled time-series negative binomial regression to analyze raw counts of juveniles admitted to adult prisons from 1983 to 2001. Results consistently show that states with larger minority populations admit more juvenile offenders to prisons but that states with very large African American populations send fewer of these offenders to prison. The findings also show that differences in the ideological climate of each state are a strong predictor of the variation in adult sanctions for minors. Additional evidence shows that states where judges must run in an election to gain their seats and states where judges have shorter terms proscribe more severe sanctions for juvenile offenders by sentencing more of them to adult prisons. Overall, the results suggest that race and politics play a very strong role in the sentencing of juvenile offenders to adult prisons.

Structural Determinants of Municipal Police Force Size in Large Cities Across Canada Assessing the Applicability of Ethnic Threat Theories in the Canadian Context

Substantial theoretical and empirical attention has been directed at isolating the structural conditions that lead to shifts in the size of metropolitan police departments in the United States. These studies rely heavily on ethnic and racial threat explanations, which imply that larger police forces will be employed in jurisdictions with larger minority populations. It is entirely unclear, though, whether such accounts are applicable outside the United States. This study fills this void in the literature by assessing the extent to which ethnic threat hypotheses can explain variations in police strength using data on 40 large Canadian cities from 1996 to 2006. Results show that the size of the minority population significantly influences the size of metropolitan police departments.