Jay S. Golden

Intra-urban societal vulnerability to extreme heat: the role of heat exposure and the built environment, socioeconomics, and neighborhood stability.

Extreme heat is an important weather hazard associated with excess mortality and morbidity. We determine the relative importance of heat exposure and the built environment, socioeconomic vulnerability, and neighborhood stability for heat mortality (Philadelphia, PA, USA) or heat distress (Phoenix, AZ, USA), using an ecologic study design. We use spatial Generalized Linear and Mixed Models to account for non-independence (spatial autocorrelation) between neighboring census block groups. Failing to account for spatial autocorrelation can provide misleading statistical results. Phoenix neighborhoods with more heat exposure, Black, Hispanic, linguistically and socially isolated residents, and vacant households made more heat distress calls. Philadelphia heat mortality neighborhoods were more likely to have low housing values and a higher proportion of Black residents. Our methodology can identify important risk factors and geographic areas to target interventions.

Sustainable Product Indexing: Navigating the Challenge of Ecolabeling

There is growing scientific evidence that improving the sustainability of consumer products can lead to significant gains in global sustainability. Historically, environmental policy has been managed by bureaucracies and institutions in a mechanistic manner; this had led to many early successes. However, we believe that if policy concerning product sustainability is also managed in this way, negative unintended consequences are likely to occur. Thus, we propose a social-ecological systems approach to policy making concerning product sustainability that will lead to more rapid and meaningful progress toward improving the environmental and social impacts of consumer products.

The Built Environment Induced Urban Heat Island Effect in Rapidly Urbanizing Arid Regions – A Sustainable Urban Engineering Complexity

As recently as 1950, 30% of the world’s population lived in urban areas. By the year 2030, 60% of the world’s population will live in cities, according to the United Nations (2001) World Population Prospects Revision Report. Urbanization is quickly transitioning communities from the natural rural vegetation to man-made urban engineered infrastructure. The anthropogenic-induced change has manifested itself in microscale and mesoscale increases in temperatures in comparison to adjacent rural regions which is known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect and results in potentially adverse consequences for local and global communities. One of the great challenges facing our current generation of scientists and engineers is how to support the growth of the new and existing arid urban centers in a sustainable manner. This is even more pronounced in arid regions, which will sustain the greatest rate of urbanization. This paper is focused on understanding the interdependency of the infrastructure used to support the growth of urban regions and their environmental, social and economic consequences with an emphasis on the rapidly urbanizing arid region of Phoenix, Arizona.

Mesoscale and microscale evaluation of surface pavement impacts on the urban heat island effects

The global phenomenon of rapid urbanization is forcing the transition of native vegetation to man-made engineered surfaces resulting in the urban heat island (UHI) effect. The UHI can adversely impact the sustainability of regions by increasing the dependence of mechanical cooling which results in increased greenhouse gas emissions, consumption of water in the thermoelectric process and increased costs of living for regional residents. The UHI can also increase the incidence and severity of heat related illnesses as well as alter sensitive ecological systems. Mesoscale remote sensing was acquired and reviewed to identify the role of surface pavements on the UHI in the Phoenix region. The imagery provided coarse visual representation of the paved surfaces, including local roads, highways and parking lots pavements; they showed a noteworthy role in regards to the UHI as well as distinguishing variability of surface temperatures related to spatial patterns, pavement material type, location and surrounding landscape. Remote sensing was also used to demonstrate the usefulness of capturing and analyzing surface materials, comparing soil and vegetation indices, albedo and surface temperatures. Handheld IR thermography was also utilized in examining contributing factors and mitigation techniques to the UHI. The findings of this study indicated that both mesoscale satellite remote sensing imagery and microscale handheld IR thermography are useful tools for defining and evaluating pavement surfaces temperatures and their contribution to the UHI. However, both have limitations in their use based on the study of interest.

Modeling effects of urban heat island mitigation strategies on heat-related morbidity: a case study for Phoenix, Arizona, USA

A zero-dimensional energy balance model was previously developed to serve as a user-friendly mitigation tool for practitioners seeking to study the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Accordingly, this established model is applied here to show the relative effects of four common mitigation strategies: increasing the overall (1) emissivity, (2) percentage of vegetated area, (3) thermal conductivity, and (4) albedo of the urban environment in a series of percentage increases by 5, 10, 15, and 20% from baseline values. In addition to modeling mitigation strategies, we present how the model can be utilized to evaluate human health vulnerability from excessive heat-related events, based on heat-related emergency service data from 2002 to 2006. The 24-h average heat index is shown to have the greatest correlation to heat-related emergency calls in the Phoenix (Arizona, USA) metropolitan region. The four modeled UHI mitigation strategies, taken in combination, would lead to a 48% reduction in annual heat-related emergency service calls, where increasing the albedo is the single most effective UHI mitigation strategy.

Climate and heat-related emergencies in Chicago, Illinois (2003–2006)

Extreme heat events are responsible for more deaths in the United States than floods, hurricanes and tornados combined. Yet, highly publicized events, such as the 2003 heat wave in Europe which caused in excess of 35,000 deaths, and the Chicago heat wave of 1995 that produced over 500 deaths, draw attention away from the countless thousands who, each year, fall victim to nonfatal health emergencies and illnesses directly attributed to heat. The health impact of heat waves and excessive heat are well known. Cities worldwide are seeking to better understand heat-related illnesses with respect to the specifics of climate, social demographics and spatial distributions. This information can support better preparation for heat-related emergency situations with regards to planning for response capacity and placement of emergency resources and personnel. This study deals specifically with the relationship between climate and heat-related dispatches (HRD, emergency 911 calls) in Chicago, Illinois, between 2003 and 2006. It is part of a larger, more in-depth, study that includes urban morphology and social factors that impact heat-related emergency dispatch calls in Chicago. The highest occurrences of HRD are located in the central business district, but are generally scattered across the city. Though temperature can be a very good predictor of high HRD, heat index is a better indicator. We determined temperature and heat index thresholds for high HRD. We were also able to identify a lag in HRD as well as other situations that triggered higher (or lower) HRD than would typically be generated for the temperature and humidity levels, such as early afternoon rainfall and special events.

Development of a Zero-Dimensional Mesoscale Thermal Model for Urban Climate

Abstract A simple energy balance model is created for use in developing mitigation strategies for the urban heat island effect. The model is initially applied to the city of Phoenix, Arizona. There are six primary contributions to the overall energy balance: incident solar radiation, anthropogenic heat input, conduction heat loss, outgoing evapotranspiration, outgoing convection, and outgoing emitted radiation. Meteorological data are input to the model, which then computes an urban characteristic temperature at a calculated time step for a specified time range. The model temperature is shown to have the same periodic behavior as the experimentally measured air temperatures. Predicted temperature changes, caused by increasing the average urban albedo, agree within 0.1°C with comparable maximum surface temperature predictions from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). The present model, while maintaining valid energy-balance physi...

Marine Seismic Surveys and Ocean Noise- Time for Coordinated and Prudent Planning

Marine seismic surveys use intense (eg ≥ 230 decibel [dB] root mean square [RMS]) sound impulses to explore the ocean bottom for hydrocarbon deposits, conduct geophysical research, and establish resource claims under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The expansion of seismic surveys necessitates greater regional and international dialogue, partnerships, and planning to manage potential environmental risks. Data indicate several reasons for concern about the negative impacts of anthropogenic noise on numerous marine species, including habitat displacement, disruption of biologically important behaviors, masking of communication signals, chronic stress, and potential auditory damage. The sound impulses from seismic surveys – spanning temporal and spatial scales broader than those typically considered in environmental assessments – may have acute, cumulative, and chronic effects on marine organisms. Given the international and transboundary nature of noise from marine seismic surveys, we suggest the creation of an international regulatory instrument, potentially an annex to the existing International Convention on the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, to address the issue.

A comparative climate analysis of heat-related emergency 911 dispatches: Chicago, Illinois and Phoenix, Arizona USA 2003 to 2006.

Research into the health impacts of heat has proliferated since 2000. Temperature increases could exacerbate the increased heat already experienced by urban populations due to urbanization. Heat-related mortality studies have found that hot southern cities in North America have not experienced the summer increases in mortality found in their more northern counterparts. Heat-related morbidity studies have not assessed this possible regional difference. This comparison study uses data from emergency 911 dispatches [referred to as heat-related dispatches (HRD)] identified by responders as heat-related for two United States cities located in different regions with very different climates: Chicago, Illinois in the upper midwest and Phoenix, Arizona in the southwest. Phoenix’s climate is hot and arid. Chicago’s climate is more temperate, but can also experience days with unusually high temperatures combined with high humidity. This study examines the relationships between rising HRD and daily temperatures: maximum (Tmax); apparent (ATmax): minimum (Tmin) and two energy balance indices (PET and UTCI). Phoenix had more HRD cumulatively, over a longer warm weather season, but did not experience the large spikes in HRD that occurred in Chicago, even though it was routinely subjected to much hotter weather conditions. Statistical analyses showed the strongest relationships to daily ATmax for both cities. Phoenix’s lack of HRD spikes, similar to the summer mortality patterns for southern cities, suggests an avenue for future research to better understand the dynamics of possible physiological or behavioral adaption that seems to reduce residents’ vulnerability to heat.

Sustainability in an urbanizing planet

Sustainability science is use-inspired fundamental research that links knowledge to action such that meeting the needs of society can be balanced with sustaining the life support systems of the planet (1, 2). Nowhere is this action-oriented research needed more than in urban areas that are now home to more than half of the world’s population, generating about 80% of the world’s economy (3) as well as over 70% of global energy use and global energy-related emissions (4). Depending on the literature and perspectives taken, urbanization and cities will be either key components to the transition to sustainability or major threats to sustainability. The dichotomy in views is partly a result of the wide range in urban conditions and uneven urbanization processes around the world. Urban areas can be sites of innovation and production of knowledge and wealth, and provide widespread access to employment, education, sanitation, and modern energy, but they can also have high levels of pollution, social exclusion, environmental degradation, and cause unintended consequences outside of the urban boundaries; all of these outcomes could occur simultaneously through the same urbanization process. A number of urban transitions are underway, several of which involve: the change from a predominantly rural and lower-density population to an urban and higher-density living; the shift in economies from agrarian to manufacturing and services, finance, and technology; the increasing resource intensity of energy, materials, and water required to produce a unit of good or service; the lasting imprint and spatial configuration of built environments and their requisite infrastructures; the subtle impact on a broad spectrum of biotic interactions and the significant threats to biodiversity; the increasing complexity and reach of urban institutions and governance to enforce the rule of law and maintain civil society; and the transition from individually demarcated cities and towns to the … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: karen.seto{at}yale.edu. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1