Jay Teachman

Stability Across Cohorts in Divorce Risk Factors

Over the past quarter-century, many covariates of divorce have been identified. However, the extent to which the effects of these covariates remain constant across time is not known. In this article, I examine the stability of the effects of a wide range of divorce covariates using a pooled sample of data taken from five rounds of the National Survey of Family Growth. This sample includes consistent measures of important predictors of divorce, covers marriages formed over 35 years (1950–1984), and spans substantial historical variation in the overall risk of marital dissolution. For the most part, the effects of the major sociodemographic predictors of divorce do not vary by historical period. The one exception is race. These results suggest that the effects associated with historical period have been pervasive, simultaneously altering the risk of divorce for most marriages

Logistic Regression: Description, Examples, and Comparisons.

Family studies have seen a dramatic increase in the use of statistical tools for the analysis of nominal-level variables. Such models are categorized as log-linear models often known as logit models or logistic-regression models. Despite logistic regressions growing popularity there is still confusion about the nature and proper use in family studies. The authors present a nontechnical discussion of logistic regression with illustrations and comparisons to better-known procedures such as percentaging tables and ordinary least squares regression. They contend that logistic regression can be a powerful statistical procedure when used appropriately. Nominal-level dependent variables are common in family research and logistic-regression models appropriately model the impact of predictor variables on these outcomes. With the proliferation of computer software for estimating logistic-regression models use of logistic regression is likely to increase. Though some time and attention is required to master it the advantages of logistic regression make the effort worthwhile.

Methodological Issues in the Analysis of Family Formation and Dissolution

Family.formation and dissolution is a process by which individuals make transitions between different statuses, such as married or not married. These family life-course transitions can be characterized by their number, timing, and sequence. While significant changes in these three dimensions of life-course transitions have been documented in recent decades, appropriate methodological tools for uncovering the determinants of such changes have not been generally available. This paper describes a methodological technique, proportional hazards models, which allows researchers to investigate variations in the number, timing, and sequence of life-course transitions in a multivariate framework. The technique is illustrated by an analysis of marital dissolution in a sample of white women.

Interpreting Hazard Rate Models

Hazard rate models are found with increasing frequency in the social science literature. Although such models hold considerable potential for answering difficult research questions, the substantive meaning of coefficients from hazard rate models is not always immediately obvious. In order to aid in the substantive interpretation of hazard rate models, the authors suggest that associated survival functions and related quantities be calculated. Several examples are provided where results using survival functions and discrete transition probabilities enrich the substantive conclusions reached based on hazard rate coefficients alone.

Financial Impact of Divorce on Children and Their Families.

This article reviews the evidence pertaining to the financial impact of divorce on children and their families. While there is some variance as to the degree of change, the preponderance of evidence suggests that women and children experience substantial financial declines upon divorce while divorced mens relative income remains stable or even increases. Given this decline in women and childrens economic status, the impact of public assistance programs is next considered followed by a discussion of child support and property settlements. The authors then present a discussion of roadblocks to economic recovery and recommend policies to improve the financial status of divorced mothers with children.

Military Service and Educational Attainment in the All-Volunteer Era

This article uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to examine the relationship between service in the All Volunteer Force (AVF) military and educational attainment. Through the use of fixed-effects estimators, the author generated estimates of the effect of military service on the highest grade of school completed by men that are purged of the confounding effects of constant unmeasured household-specific and person-specific variables. He also implemented another series of controls for selectivity involving potential time-varying factors by comparing active-duty veterans to reserve-duty veterans and nonveterans who at some time indicated their intentions to enter the military. The results indicate that there is considerable diversity in the effect of military service among veterans according to such variables as education prior to service, score on the Armed Forces Qualification Test, branch of service, length of service, age at entry into the military, and race. Overall, however, veterans of the AVF receive less education than their civilian counterparts, and this educational gap tends to grow over time.

Childhood Living Arrangements and the Risk of Premarital Intercourse

Using data taken from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth, this study investigates the relationship between childhood living arrangements and the risk of first premarital intercourse. Both statuses and transitions associated with the parent histories of children are considered. Black and White women are examined separately, as well as two broad birth cohorts (from 1950 to 1959 and from 1960 to 1969). The findings show that experiencing more transitions and being born out of wedlock increase the risk of first premarital intercourse, and they are consistent with two theoretical perspectives: (a) socialization, and (b) instability and change.

The Childhood Living Arrangements of Children and the Characteristics of Their Marriages

In this article, the author uses data from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth to examine the impact of childhood living arrangements on the characteristics of marriages formed by womenbetween 1970and 1989.The focus is on sociodemographic characteristics of marriage that may be taken to indicate a heightened risk of marital stress or marital disruption. With the exception of parental death,it is foundthat any time spent in an alternative family increases the likelihood that a woman forms a union with characteristics that decrease the like-lihood of a successful union (i.e., women who experience parental divorce are more likely to cohabit before marriage). The author provides several theoretical alternatives for explaining the effects of childhood living arrangements. Two alternatives, selectivity and socialization, appear to be most consistent with the data.

Race, military service, and marital timing: Evidence from the NLSY-79

I use data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Study of Youth to examine the relationship between military service and marital timing for white men and black men during the 1980s. I use information about active-duty and reserve-duty service as well as veteran status to implement strong controls for selectivity. I find that active-duty military service increases the probability of first marriage for both whites and blacks. In part, this relationship is due to positive selectivity into the military and, for whites, to greater income and economic stability. Above and beyond the effects of selectivity, income, and economic stability, the effect of active-duty military service is particularly strong for black men.

Military Service during the Vietnam Era: Were There Consequences for Subsequent Civilian Earnings?

Using longitudinal data gathered in the National Longitudinal Study of Young Men spanning the years from 1966 to 1981, I examine the relationship between military service and subsequent income earned in the civilian labor market. Through the use of fixed-effects estimators, I am able to generate estimates of the effects that are independent of unmeasured family-specific and person-specific factors that might bias the relationship. The use of longitudinal data also allows for the construction and comparison of earning trajectories for veterans and nonveterans. The results indicate that veterans have earning profiles that differ from those of nonveterans. In particular, after leaving military service, veterans who were drafted earn less than nonveterans, but this difference erodes over time because veterans have a steeper earning profile. Within less than ten years of discharge there is no statistically significant difference between the earnings of veterans and those of nonveterans.