Lucky M. Tedrow

Trends in Attitudes Toward Abortion: 1972-1976

Trends in attitudes toward abortion are examined over the 1972-1976 period. While an overall tendency of more liberal attitudes is noted, important differences over time are apparent by gender, education, occupational prestige, and religiosity.

What is applied demography

Applied demography has recently gained recognition as an emergent specialization among practicing demographers. We argue that applied demography is intrinsically distinct from basic demography because it exhibits the value-orientation and empirical characteristics of a decision-making science while the latter exhibits the value-orientation and empirical hallmarks of a basic science. Distinguishing characteristics of applied demography are based on the context in which it places precision and explanatory power relative to time and resources as well as the fact its substantive problems are largely exogenously-defined, usually by customers. The substantive problems of basic demography, on the other hand, are largely endogenously-defined, usually by academic demographers. Moreover, basic demography is primarily concerned with offering convincing explanations of demographic phenomena and tends to view time and resources as barriers to surmount in order to maximize precision and explanatory power. This context is very different from the one in which applied demography is embedded, which views explanatory power and precision in terms of doing what is necessary to support practical decision-making while minimizing time and resources. We examine this conceptualization of applied demography in terms of the methods and materials that fall within its purview and discuss some important consequences, including research agendas and training programs. We conclude by posing several important but unanswered questions about the actual and potential scope of applied demography and discuss some of the implications inherent in these questions.

Improving the Measurement of Temporal Change in Regression Models Used For County Population Estimates

The ratio-correlation method of population estimation is shown to contain an inconsistent temporal relationship between the model’s empirical structure and its actual application. A simple transformation of the model’s variables is provided that eliminates the inconsistency. Two tests of the relative accuracy of the original and transformed models show that the transformed model achieves accuracy levels equal to or higher than the original. In one test, all nine years show a higher degree of accuracy, of which four are statistically significant. Several possible reasons are given for the increased accuracy shown by the transformed model. The transformation, termed the “rate-correlation” model, is recommended as a logical starting point in the examination of coefficient stability and spatial autocorrelation as well as a method for estimating small populations.

Birth intervals and early childhood mortality in a migrating Mennonite community

Short birth intervals are associated with increased mortality in challenging settings, and the objective here was to explore the significance of birth spacing relative to the neonatal, postneonatal, and early childhood mortality for rural Mennonites from one congregation in two settings: Russia, 1825–1874, and Kansas, 1875–1924, in light of two causal mechanisms: maternal depletion and sibling competition. Vital events of families reconstructed from church records comprised a total of 930 and 1,484 births in Russia and Kansas, respectively, by 381 mothers. Bivariate analyses indicate that mortality is higher in Russia relative to Kansas for births with the shortest previous intervals for all three age categories, and for neonates born before the shortest subsequent intervals. Cox regression analyses indicated that only a few factors played a statistically significant role. Mortality risk was increased in Russia by having mothers >35 years and shorter subsequent intervals for the neonates, shorter subsequent intervals for the postneonates, and having mothers >35 years, and shorter previous and subsequent intervals for early childhood. In Kansas, mortality risk was increased by shorter subsequent intervals and being a member of a multiple birth for neonates, shorter previous and subsequent intervals and being a member of a multiple birth for postneonates, and being a member of a multiple birth, when the preceding child dies, and a shorter subsequent interval for early childhood. The increased risk in Russia associated with being born to an older mother and the increased risk in the total sample for the older age categories with the shortest previous intervals provide moderate support for the maternal depletion hypothesis. That longer subsequent intervals increase survivorship in all settings for all age categories provides limited support for the sibling competition hypothesis. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 12:50–63, 2000.

Measuring Change and Continuity in Parity Distributions

Procedures are developed to allocate the change in mean fertility to the change in specific parities or groups of parities. One procedure uses the proportion at each parity and another uses parity progression ratios. Both are based on the delta method for approximating change in a function of several variables. Drawing on an analogy to survival in a life table, the relational logit model is applied to parity progression. This method allows several parity distributions to be synthesized and to have differences summarized with two parameters. The three procedures are applied to successive cohorts of white U.S. women who completed their childbearing between 1920 and 1980.

The Demography of Families

In this chapter we outline changes in marriage, divorce, remarriage, cohabitation, and household structure that have altered the face of American families. Although marriage remains a prominent component of family life, there has been a general retreat from any monolithic family form. These changes have substantially changed the way that children experience family life. Delayed marriage, divorce, cohabitation, and out-of-wedlock childbearing mean that children (and their parents) are experiencing an increasing number of household changes. There have also been consequences for the economic profile of America’s families with increasing inequality meaning that less-privileged groups are less able to form and nurture stable unions and marriages. Indeed, family change is tightly intertwined with the evolving economic environment in which families find themselves. The changing role of women in the labor force appears to be a particularly important component of family change. Overall, changes in American family life have led to rigorous debate about their implications for the well-being of both children and adults.

Altering the life course: Military service and contact with the criminal justice system.

Using data taken from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we examine the relationship between military service and contact with the criminal justice system. Drawing on the life course concept of a turning point, we show that military service does little to affect the risk of being arrested or being convicted of crimes involving violence or destructive behavior, while at the same time significantly reducing the risk of being arrested or being convicted of non-violent crimes. We find no evidence that service in a combat zone alters these relationships. Our results demonstrate how participation in a large-scale institution can serve as a turning point, altering the life course trajectories of young persons.

Military Service and Alcohol Use in the United States

It is well known that enlistees and veterans in the United States are more likely to use alcohol than civilians. However, most of this research is potentially biased in that it often does not employ control variables (other than age) and is based on cross-sectional data. Much of this research also fails to consider the relationship between military service and alcohol use among women. Using longitudinal data taken from the 1997 National Longitudinal Study of Youth, we investigate the relationship between military service and alcohol consumption employing a fixed-effects approach. We find that military service appears to encourage young men to consume alcohol. It is also the case that the effect of military service is not limited to the time that men spend in the military given that male veterans are also more likely to consume alcohol than are comparable nonveterans. We find, however, that women who serve, both enlistees and veterans, are less likely to drink than their civilian counterparts.

Delinquent behavior, the transition to adulthood, and the likelihood of military enlistment

Using data taken from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth we examine the relationship between delinquency and enlistment in the military. We argue that delinquent behavior is positively related to enlistment because military service is an attractive alternative for delinquents to mark their transition to adulthood and their desistance from delinquent behavior. We also argue, however, that this relationship is not linear, with higher levels of delinquent behavior actually acting to reduce the likelihood of enlistment. We further suggest that the relationship between delinquency and enlistment is similar for men and women. We test and find support for our hypotheses using data taken from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.

Using cohort change ratios to estimate life expectancy in populations with negligible migration: A new approach

Census survival methods are the oldest and most widely applicable methods of estimating adult mortality, and for populations with negligible migration they can provide excellent results. The reason for this ubiquity is threefold: (1) their data requirements are minimal in that only two successive age distributions are needed; (2) the two successive age distributions are usually easily obtained from census counts; and (3) the method is straightforward in that it requires neither a great deal of judgment nor “data-fitting” techniques to implement. This ubiquity is in contrast to other methods, which require more data, as well as judgment and, often, data fitting. In this short note, the new approach we demonstrate is that life expectancy at birth can be computed by using census survival rates in combination with an identity whereby the radix of a life table is equal to 1 (l0 = 1.00). We point out that our suggested method is less involved than the existing approach. We compare estimates using our approach against other estimates, and find it works reasonably well. As well as some nuances and cautions, we discuss the benefits of using this approach to estimate life expectancy, including the ability to develop estimates of average remaining life at any age. We believe that the technique is worthy of consideration for use in estimating life expectancy in populations that experience negligible migration.