Jean-Luc de Kok

Modeling land-use change in a decision-support system for coastal-zone management

RaMCo is a prototype version of a decision-support system for coastal-zone management. The model is based on the findings of a multidisiciplinary research program, conducted in Southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Different management strategies can be compared on the basis of the short- and long-term consequences. Land-use change has been included in RaMCo in view of the impacts of land-based human activities on the marine environment. The key aspect of the model is a combination of the temporal dynamics of land-use change on the regional (macro-level) scale and spatial dynamics on the local (micro-level) scale. Constrained cellular automata are used to integrate both scale levels. The state changes of the cells depend on the consistency with the macro-scale model, local geographical conditions, and interaction with neighboring cells. In this paper, we discuss the underlying theoretical assumptions of the macro-scale and micro-scale models, some characteristic results for land-use change in the study area, and the validation problem.

Design and application of decision-support systems for integrated water management: lessons to be learnt

During the annual meeting of the European Geophysical Society in 2001 a special session was organized around the design and application of decision-support systems for integrated water management. There is a growing realization among policy makers and scientists that ecological, social-economic and physical aspects of water management cannot be dealt with separately. This has lead to a growing number of tools to support the decision-making process in water management dealing with the water system in an integrated way. Example applications are flood forecasting, multi-reservoir operation, urban waste-water management, and integrated river-basin management. The design, which is ideally based on intensive communication between scientists, system designers and envisaged end users, is often a tedious process. In general, it can be concluded that, in despite of the effort invested in process modeling, data collection, and the growing experience in developing integrated system models, practical application of decision-support systems still runs behind the availability of these tools.

Application of fuzzy sets and cognitive maps to incorporate social science scenarios in integrated assessment models

Decision–support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge, as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the coastal city of Ujung Pandang, Indonesia. The results indicate that both techniques are useful tools for the design of integrated models based on a combination of concepts from the natural and social sciences.

Elbe DSS: A Planning Support System for Strategic River Basin Planning

The German part of the Elbe River and its basin are characterized by multiple problems and objectives that call for strategic management based on an integrated approach. In August 2002, the region suffered a catastrophic flood with loss of lives and damage amounting to over 9 billion Euro. During the summer months, because of low flows, shipping along the river is problematic, which considerably reduces the economic transport capacity of the river. Several areas along the river act as a habitat for rare plant and animal species and have been designated as nature reserves. The output of diffuse and point sources of pollution in the river basin must be controlled in order to comply with standards of the EU Water Framework Directive (EU 2000).