Jean Palutikof

From barriers to limits to climate change adaptation: path dependency and the speed of change

Research on the barriers and limits to climate change adaptation identifies many factors, but describes few processes whereby adaptation is constrained or may indeed fail to avoid catastrophic losses. It often assumes that barriers are by and large distinct from limits to adaptation. We respond to recent calls for comparative studies that are able to further knowledge about the underlying drivers of barriers and limits to adaptation. We compare six cases from across Australia, including those in alpine areas, rivers, reefs, wetlands, small inland communities, and islands, with the aim of identifying common underlying drivers of barriers and limits to adaptation. We find that the path-dependent nature of the institutions that govern natural resources and public goods is a deep driver of barriers and limits to adaptation. Path-dependent institutions are resistant to change. When this resistance causes the changes necessary for adaptation to be slower than changes in climate, then it becomes a limit to adaptation.

Climate Adaptation Futures

Adaptation is the poor cousin of the climate change challenge the glamour of international debate is around global mitigation agreements, while the bottom-up activities of adaptation, carried out in community halls and local government offices, are often overlooked. Yet, as international forums fail to deliver reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the world is realising that effective adaptation will be essential across all sectors to deal with the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The need to understand how to adapt effectively, and to develop appropriate adaptation options and actions, is becoming increasingly urgent.

Key IPCC conclusions on climate change impacts and adaptations

The IPCC Fourth Assessment on Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IPCC 2007a) addressed three main issues: a) impacts of climate change which are observable now; b) future effects of climate change on different sectors and regions; and c) responses to such effects. The assessment included 12 key messages, which are summarized here.