Jean-Philippe Waaub

Canadian Markal: An Advanced Linear Programming System For Energy And Environmental Modelling

AbstractIn this paper, we report on an updated, improved version of the MARKAL energy model, developed in the late 197O’s under the aegis of member countries of the International Energy Agency. MARKAL is an integrated multi-period linear-programming model of energy systems, characterized by the representation of individual devices and energy carriers at every stage of the extraction, transformation, distribution, and consumption of energy forms. The model is driven by useful demands for goods and services in the economic subsectors.There exists a standard version of MARKAL, and other versions resulting from modifications and additions by individual countries. The Canadian MARKAL model is significantly different from the standard as well as from other versions of MARKAL. It was developed in several stages over the period 1984 to 1989, each stage being motivated by specific applications that could not easily be implemented with the previous model versions. Although some of the features of the Canadian versi...

Environmental site evaluation of waste management facilities embedded into EUGENE model: A multicriteria approach

Abstract EUGENE is a sophisticated mixed integer linear programming model developed to help regional decision makers on long-term planning for solid waste management activities. The model removes almost every limitations encountered in other waste management models and contains a large quantity of variables and constraints. The method used to embed waste management environmental parameters in the EUGENE model consists in building global impact index (GII) for all site/facility combinations. First, an environmental and spatial evaluation of waste management facilities over sites is based on qualitative and quantitative criteria measuring biophysical and social impacts. Spatial analysis is carried out by geographical information system routines. Then, a multicriteria analysis ranks all site/facility combinations, according to their global performance based on all criteria. The net flow, computed by the PROMETHEE multicriteria outranking method, is considered as a GII to be embedded into EUGENE. The model objective function is thus modified to minimize total system cost and GII. Some practical results obtained for the City of Montreal are discussed.

Equity in international greenhouse gases abatement scenarios: A multicriteria approach

Abstract The climate change problem involves long-term global efforts through sustainable development. The international burden sharing of greenhouse gases (GHG) abatement constitutes a controversial debate. Equity is an important issue to be considered in the mitigation policies to insure the participation of as many developing countries as possible. The main purpose of this research is to allocate equitable international GHG emission entitlements using several criteria. There are many equity definitions and some are conflicting. A dynamical multicriterion method is proposed to compare various alternatives and to find a compromise solution. If the decision-making process can take into account interests and preoccupations of every country, significant progress could be made to achieve a world consensus. Several burden sharing schemes are proposed. Then, modeling abatement scenarios using the TIMES world energy model will allow us to determine the cost-effectiveness opportunities.

A decision aid tool for equity issues analysis in emission permit allocations

Abstract In the long term, the Kyoto Protocol will be insufficient to stabilize the greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere; quantified commitments will also be essential for major developing countries (and the US). International cooperation mechanisms, such as permit trading systems, can help achieve global economic efficiency. However, the initial allocation of emission permits raises many debates on equity. The main objective is to propose a decision aid tool for decision makers, which is capable of providing relevant information on various equitable permit allocation schemes and burden sharing. A dynamic multicriteria model is proposed to share the global quantity of permits among 15 regions, taking into account multiple definitions of equity and regional interests. The World-MARKAL energy model is used to compute the gross reduction cost (before permit exchanges) for each region. Afterward, it is possible to calculate their net reduction costs (after permit exchanges) according to different allocation schemes. A realistic simulation of the tool provides examples of results, i.e. ranges of permit allocations and net costs for each region. Finally, some recommendations are proposed to policy makers to design a decision process adapted to the global context of negotiations.

The World-Markal Model and Its Application to Cost-Effectiveness, Permit Sharing, and Cost-Benefit Analyses

In this article, we present the new multiregional global MARKAL-TIMES1 model and on several recent applications to global energy-environment issues. The development of the model was motivated by the need to analyze international energy and environmental issues such as climate change, using a detailed, technology rich modeling framework. We then present three different types of application. First, the model is applied to conduct the cost-effectiveness analysis of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission abatement, whereby constraints on CO2 emissions are added to the base case formulation. The model then computes the cost-efficient response of the energy system to these emission targets. Second, we address the issue of “who pays”’ for emission reductions (whereas the cost-effictiveness analysis addressed the “who acts” issue). More precisely, we use the model to devise and evaluate certain allocation rules for attributing initial emission rights to regions in a cap-and-trade system. Third, we use World MARKAL in a cost-benefit mode, i.e. we augment the model with damage costs resulting from climate change, and run the integrated model without any pre-set targets on emissions or concentration. We then analyse cooperative and non-cooperative decisions by regions when confronted to the threat of damages. This last application makes systematic use of game theoretic concepts.

Factors associated with preventive behaviors regarding Lyme disease in Canada and Switzerland: a comparative study

BackgroundLyme disease (LD) is a vector-borne disease that is endemic in many temperate countries, including Switzerland, and is currently emerging in Canada. This study compares the importance of knowledge, exposure and risk perception for the adoption of individual preventive measures, within and between two different populations, one that has been living in a LD endemic region for several decades, the Neuchâtel canton in Switzerland, and another where the disease is currently emerging, the Montérégie region in the province of Québec, Canada.MethodsA web-based survey was carried out in both study regions (814 respondents) in 2012. Comparative analysis of the levels of adoption of individual preventive measures was performed and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to test and compare how knowledge, exposure and risk perception were associated with the adoption of selected measures in both regions and globally.ResultsIn Montérégie, the proportion of reported adoption of five of the most commonly recommended preventive measures varied from 6% for ‘applying acaricides on one’s property’ to 49% for ‘wearing protective clothing’, and in Neuchâtel, proportions ranged from 6% (acaricides) to 77% for ‘checking for ticks (tick check)’. Differences were found within gender, age groups and exposure status in both regions. The perceived efficacy of a given measure was the strongest factor associated with the adoption of three specific preventive behaviors for both regions: tick check, protective clothing and tick repellent. Risk perception and a high level of knowledge about LD were also significantly associated with some of these specific behaviors, but varied by region.ConclusionsThese results strongly suggest that social and contextual factors such as the epidemiological status of a region are important considerations to take into account when designing effective prevention campaigns for Lyme disease. It furthermore underlines the importance for public health authorities to better understand and monitor these factors in targeted populations in order to be able to implement preventive programs that are well adapted to a population and the epidemiological contexts therein.

Modelling energy use in the mineral processing industries of Ontario with MARKAL-Ontario☆

We report on the development of a linear process model of energy supplies and uses in the province of Ontario (Canada). The minerals industries producing metals account for a large part of industrial energy use in Ontario. Therefore, the emphasis in this model is on the iron and steel, copper, nickel, and zinc industries, which are described in some detail. On the other hand, by using the model, we keep a global perspective and embed these industries in a general energy model of the whole province. Two scenarios are run and analyzed to demonstrate the model capabilities.

From Lyme disease emergence to endemicity: a cross sectional comparative study of risk perceptions in different populations

BackgroundLyme disease (LD) is a tick-borne emerging disease in Canada that has been endemic in many temperate countries for decades. Currently, one of the main approaches for LD prevention is the promotion of individual-level preventive behaviors against ticks. Health behaviors are influenced by individual and social factors, one important of which is risk perception. This study aims to describe and compare risk perception of LD, within and between general populations and experts living in two different regions: the Neuchâtel canton in Switzerland, where LD is endemic, and the Montérégie region in Québec (Canada), where LD is emerging.MethodA web-based survey was conducted in both study regions (814 respondents) in 2012, and a questionnaire was administered to 16 experts. Comparative analyses of knowledge, risk exposure and different components of LD risk perception were performed. Multivariate analyses were used to calculate a global risk perception score and to identify determinants of risk perception in both regions.ResultsIn Montérégie, only 15% of the survey respondents had a good level of knowledge of LD compared to Neuchâtel where 51% of survey respondents had good levels of knowledge. In Montérégie, 24% of respondents perceived themselves as being at high or very high risk of contracting LD vs 54% in Neuchâtel; however, a higher percentage of respondents from this region believed that personal protection was simple to carry out (73% vs 58% in Montérégie). Based on the population surveys, almost all of the identified determinants of risk perception were different between both populations except for gender. A good level of knowledge, living in the risk zone and knowing someone who has had LD increased risk perception, while a high level of education and being 18–34 years of age decreased this perception. The majority of the studied components of risk perception were different between populations and their regional experts.ConclusionThis study suggests that risk perception of LD differs between populations and regional experts living in different epidemiological situations. Monitoring of knowledge and risk perception in local populations may help to better target LD communication efforts in accordance with population specific attributes thereby enhancing prevention efficacy.

PROMETHEE-GDSS revisited: applications so far and new developments

The PROMETHEE method, developed by Brans (1982) and Brans and Mareschal (1994) has been extended to be used in the group decision context (as described in Macharis et al., 1998). PROMETHEE has thus been embedded in GDSS and has been widely used in various decision contexts. The aim of the paper is to analyse how PROMETHEE-GDSS has been applied and which further developments can enhance its applicability. The analysis is structured along a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis and on the basis of this analysis recommendations are given.

Cross-National Policy Transfer to Developing Countries: Prologue

Application of principles, methods and techniques of structured policy analysis, regular impact assessments and clearly defined planning frameworks (names vary from policy area to policy area) is relatively common in what are known as Western countries, especially North America, Australia, New Zealand, and Northern Europe. Although political forces come into play in any policy process, the above mentioned countries have adopted the adage that power-play between political and socioeconomic actors should at least be mitigated by aspects of rationality and democracy (Flyvbjerg, 1998). The former is characterized by a serious attempt to solve problems by analytical means, the latter by imbuing interaction processes leading to such problem-solving with a participatory practice. In other words, relevant political and socioeconomic actors should collaborate to systematically make sense of problems and agree on the formulation of policy measures to eliminate these problems. AngloSaxon and North-European administrative cultures have been shown to represent values which go a long way in making such structured problem-solving possible, at least in theory. They have embraced linear or monochronic time-conceptions, have a universalistic outlook of rule application, tend to separate societal roles from Martin de Jong is associate professor of policy, organisation and management at the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands. He publishes and lectures mainly on subjects of cross-national policy transfer, cross-cultural management and transport infrastructure policy. He is also responsible for the international master programme Engineering and Policy Analysis, for which he has helped to set up a Chinese counterpart with the same name.