Jeff Peters

GOES‐derived fog and low cloud indices for coastal north and central California ecological analyses

Fog and low cloud cover (FLCC) strongly influences the water, energy, and nutrient flux of coastal ecosystems. Easy-to-use FLCC data are needed to quantify the impacts of FLCC on ecosystem dynamics especially during hot and dry Mediterranean climate summers. Monthly, annual, and decadal FLCC digital maps (indices) were derived for June–September 1999–2009 for coastal California, latitude 34.50°N (south of Monterey Bay) to latitude 41.95°N (north of Crescent City) from 26,000 hourly night and day Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) images. Monthly average FLCC ranges from <2 to 18 hours per day (h/d). Average FLCC over the ocean increases from north (9 h/d) to south (14 h/d), whereas on land, FLCC is highest where land juts into the prevailing NW winds and is lowest in the lee of major capes. FLCC advects farthest inland through low-lying NW ocean-facing valleys. At night, average total hours of FLCC are higher more frequently on land than over the ocean. The interannual FLCC coefficient of variation shows long-term geographic stability that is strongly associated with landform position. FLCC hours per day mapped contours, derived from decadal average FLCC, delineate the commonly used term “fog belt” into FLCC zones with increased locational precision. FLCC indices are available for download from the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative Climate Commons website (http://climate.calcommons.org/datasets/ summertime-fog). FLCC indices can improve analyses of biogeographic and bioclimatic species distribution models; understanding meteorological mechanisms driving FLCC patterns; solar energy feasibility studies; investigations of ecohydrology, evapotranspiration, and agricultural irrigation demand; and viticulture ripening models.

Changes in population evacuation potential for tsunami hazards in Seward, Alaska, since the 1964 Good Friday earthquake

AbstractPedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunami hazards typically focuses on current land-cover conditions and population distributions. To examine how post-disaster redevelopment may influence the evacuation potential of at-risk populations to future threats, we modeled pedestrian travel times to safety in Seward, Alaska, based on conditions before the 1964 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster and on modern conditions. Anisotropic, path distance modeling is conducted to estimate travel times to safety during the 1964 event and in modern Seward, and results are merged with various population data, including the location and number of residents, employees, public venues, and dependent care facilities. Results suggest that modeled travel time estimates conform well to the fatality patterns of the 1964 event and that evacuation travel times have increased in modern Seward due to the relocation and expansion of port and harbor facilities after the disaster. The majority of individuals threatened by tsunamis today in Seward are employee, customer, and tourist populations, rather than residents in their homes. Modern evacuation travel times to safety for the majority of the region are less than wave arrival times for future tectonic tsunamis but greater than arrival times for landslide-related tsunamis. Evacuation travel times will likely be higher in the winter time, when the presence of snow may constrain evacuations to roads.

Intra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California

Tsunami-evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically based on maximum evacuation zones for a single scenario or a composite of sources; however, this approach may over-evacuate a community and overly disrupt the local economy and strain emergency-service resources. To minimize the potential for future over-evacuations, multiple evacuation zones based on arrival time and inundation extent are being developed for California coastal communities. We use the coastal city of Alameda, California (USA), as a case study to explore population and evacuation implications associated with multiple tsunami-evacuation zones. We use geospatial analyses to estimate the number and type of people in each tsunami-evacuation zone and anisotropic pedestrian evacuation models to estimate pedestrian travel time out of each zone. Results demonstrate that there are tens of thousands of individuals in tsunami-evacuation zones on the two main islands of Alameda, but they will likely have sufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival. Quality of life could be impacted by the high number of government offices, schools, day-care centers, and medical offices in certain evacuation zones and by potentially high population density at one identified safe area after an evacuation. Multi-jurisdictional evacuation planning may be warranted, given that many at-risk individuals may need to evacuate to neighboring jurisdictions. The use of maximum evacuation zones for local tsunami sources may be warranted given the limited amount of available time to confidently recommend smaller zones which would result in fewer evacuees; however, this approach may also result in over-evacuation and the incorrect perception that successful evacuations are unlikely.