Jeffery D. Amato

Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market and Transition Economies: Lessons After a Decade

Starting in the early 1990s, several emerging market and transition economies (EMEs) have adopted inflation targeting (IT). In this paper we discuss a number of issues that arise in this context: (a) the definition of IT, (b) the role of preconditions for IT, (c) the use of intermediate exchange rate targets, and (d) the specification of inflation targets. Our overall conclusion is that, suitably modified, IT is a useful policy strategy for EMEs.

The Credit Spread Puzzle

Why are spreads on corporate bonds much wider than would be implied by expected losses from default? Previous explanations of this puzzle have assumed that investors can diversify away the risk that actual losses in a corporate bond portfolio will exceed expected losses. However, the skewness in the distribution of corporate bond returns implies that achieving such diversification will require an extraordinarily large portfolio. We present evidence from the market for collateralised debt obligations suggesting that such large portfolios are unattainable. Hence, investors always face the risk that actual losses will exceed expectations. Credit spreads are so wide because they compensate investors for such risk.

ESTIMATION AND CONTROL OF AN OPTIMIZATION BASED MODEL WITH STICKY PRICES AND WAGES

Abstract This paper provides estimates of an optimization-based equilibrium model with sticky prices and wages. The estimated model is used to analyse the welfare properties of various interest rate rules for conducting monetary policy. An important feature of this model is that it involves a tradeoff between the variances of price and wage inflation and the output gap. This tradeoff implies that it is desirable for the monetary authority to respond to wage inflation, in addition to price inflation, output, and past interest rates, when setting the current interest rate. The issue whether wages and prices can be indexed to steady-state inflation has important implications both for the characterization of optimal interest rate rules and interest rate volatility. In particular, optimal policy in the presence of indexation induces implausibly high steady-state inflation.

The real-time predictive content of money for output ☆

Data on monetary aggregates are subject to periodic redefinitions, presumably in part to improve their link to measures of output. Money data are also revised on a regular basis. Taking these data imperfections into account, we reassess the evidence on the marginal predictive content of M1 and m2 for real and nominal output. In particular, by first using the latest version of the data that is available, and then using sequences of historical time series that would have been available to forecasters in real-time, we are able to provide a comprehensive assessment of whether money is useful for predicting output. We conclude that the generally significant marginal predictive content of M1 and m2 for output that is found using a recently revised data set is not duplicated in a real-time setting, although M2 is shown to remain useful when 1-year ahead forecasts are constructed using fitted vector autoregressive models.

Public and private information in monetary policy models

This paper examines the impact of public information in an economy where agents also have diverse private information. Since disclosures by central banks are an important source of public information, we are able to assess how the words of central bankers shape expectations, in addition to their actions. In an otherwise standard macro model, the disproportionate role of public information degrades the information value of economic outcomes, alters the welfare consequences of increased precision of public information and generates distinctive time series characteristics of some macro variables.

The Role of the Natural Rate of Interest in Monetary Policy

This paper examines the role of the natural rate of interest in the conduct of monetary policy. The natural rate figures prominently in many theories of the business cycle and of inflation fluctuations, and therefore has the potential to play a key role in monetary policy given the current mandates of many central banks. However, the presence of financial imperfections and measurement uncertainty draw into question whether estimates of the natural rate can be reliable indicators of excess demand pressures. Natural rate-based theories may, nonetheless, provide useful guidance in the formulation of desirable monetary policies.

Macro Factors in the Term Structure of Credit Spreads

We estimate arbitrage-free term structure models of US Treasury yields and spreads on BBB and Brated corporate bonds in a doubly-stochastic intensity-based framework. A novel feature of our analysis is the inclusion of macroeconomic variables – indicators of real activity, inflation and financial conditions – as well as latent factors, as drivers of term structure dynamics. Our results point to three key roles played by macro factors in the term structure of spreads: they have a significant impact on the level, and particularly the slope, of the curves; they are largely responsible for variation in the prices of systematic risk; and speculative grade spreads exhibit greater sensitivity to macro shocks than high grade spreads.

Monetary Policy in an Estimated Optimisation-Based Model with Sticky Prices and Wages

This paper serves two purposes. First, it provides estimates of an optimisation-based equilibrium model with sticky prices and wages. Second, the estimated model is used to analyse the welfare properties of various interest rate rules for conducting monetary policy. As shown by Erceg et al (1999), an important feature of this model is that it involves a trade-off between the variances of price and wage inflation and the output gap. This trade-off implies that it is desirable for the monetary authority to respond to more than inflation, output and past interest rates when setting the current interest rate. Indeed, the welfare optimal policy can be approximated with responses to both price and wage inflation and the past interest rate. By contrast, rules that call for a strong response to either detrended output or the output gap result in much lower level of welfare.

Forecast-based Monetary Policy

This article analyses the welfare consequences of delegating to the central bank the task of minimising deviations of forecasts of goal variables from their target values. The delegated objectives considered in this article are motivated by the observation that central banks oftentimes operate under objectives which do not necessarily represent societys preferences. The analysis is performed using an estimated model of optimising households and firms that generates tradeoffs between stabilising wage and price inflation and the output gap. We find that when the central banks objective is defined solely in terms of price inflation, it is welfare optimal to stabilise only those fluctuations in price inflation that are forecastable at least five quarters ahead. On the other hand, when the central banks objective involves both wage and price inflation stabilisation, the central bank should stabilise all fluctuations in these variables, not just those forecastable at some horizon.