Jeffery R. Stone

Ecological consequences of early Late Pleistocene megadroughts in tropical Africa

Extremely arid conditions in tropical Africa occurred in several discrete episodes between 135 and 90 ka, as demonstrated by lake core and seismic records from multiple basins [Scholz CA, Johnson TC, Cohen AS, King JW, Peck J, Overpeck JT, Talbot MR, Brown ET, Kalindekafe L, Amoako PYO, et al. (2007) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:16416–16421]. This resulted in extraordinarily low lake levels, even in Africas deepest lakes. On the basis of well dated paleoecological records from Lake Malawi, which reflect both local and regional conditions, we show that this aridity had severe consequences for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. During the most arid phase, there was extremely low pollen production and limited charred-particle deposition, indicating insufficient vegetation to maintain substantial fires, and the Lake Malawi watershed experienced cool, semidesert conditions (<400 mm/yr precipitation). Fossil and sedimentological data show that Lake Malawi itself, currently 706 m deep, was reduced to an ≈125 m deep saline, alkaline, well mixed lake. This episode of aridity was far more extreme than any experienced in the Afrotropics during the Last Glacial Maximum (≈35–15 ka). Aridity diminished after 95 ka, lake levels rose erratically, and salinity/alkalinity declined, reaching near-modern conditions after 60 ka. This record of lake levels and changing limnological conditions provides a framework for interpreting the evolution of the Lake Malawi fish and invertebrate species flocks. Moreover, this record, coupled with other regional records of early Late Pleistocene aridity, places new constraints on models of Afrotropical biogeographic refugia and early modern human population expansion into and out of tropical Africa.

Climate-induced changes in lake ecosystem structure inferred from coupled neo- and paleoecological approaches

Over the 20th century, surface water temperatures have increased in many lake ecosystems around the world, but long-term trends in the vertical thermal structure of lakes remain unclear, despite the strong control that thermal stratification exerts on the biological response of lakes to climate change. Here we used both neo- and paleoecological approaches to develop a fossil-based inference model for lake mixing depths and thereby refine understanding of lake thermal structure change. We focused on three common planktonic diatom taxa, the distributions of which previous research suggests might be affected by mixing depth. Comparative lake surveys and growth rate experiments revealed that these species respond to lake thermal structure when nitrogen is sufficient, with species optima ranging from shallower to deeper mixing depths. The diatom-based mixing depth model was applied to sedimentary diatom profiles extending back to 1750 AD in two lakes with moderate nitrate concentrations but differing climate settings. Thermal reconstructions were consistent with expected changes, with shallower mixing depths inferred for an alpine lake where treeline has advanced, and deeper mixing depths inferred for a boreal lake where wind strength has increased. The inference model developed here provides a new tool to expand and refine understanding of climate-induced changes in lake ecosystems.

Melting Alpine Glaciers Enrich High-Elevation Lakes with Reactive Nitrogen

Alpine glaciers have receded substantially over the last century in many regions of the world. Resulting changes in glacial runoff not only affect the hydrological cycle, but can also alter the physical (i.e., turbidity from glacial flour) and biogeochemical properties of downstream ecosystems. Here we compare nutrient concentrations, transparency gradients, algal biomass, and fossil diatom species richness in two sets of high-elevation lakes: those fed by snowpack melt alone (SF lakes) and those fed by both glacial and snowpack meltwaters (GSF lakes). We found that nitrate (NO(3)(-)) concentrations in the GSF lakes were 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than in SF lakes. Although nitrogen (N) limitation is common in alpine lakes, algal biomass was lower in highly N-enriched GSF lakes than in the N-poor SF lakes. Contrary to expectations, GSF lakes were more transparent than SF lakes to ultraviolet and equally transparent to photosynthetically active radiation. Sediment diatom assemblages had lower taxonomic richness in the GSF lakes, a feature that has persisted over the last century. Our results demonstrate that the presence of glaciers on alpine watersheds more strongly influences NO(3)(-)concentrations in high-elevation lake ecosystems than any other geomorphic or biogeographic characteristic.

Multidecadal drought and Holocene climate instability in the Rocky Mountains

Time series analysis of a diatom-inferred drought record suggests that Holocene hydroclimate of the northern Rocky Mountains has been characterized by oscillation between two mean climate states. The dominant climate state was initiated at the onset of the Holocene (ca. 11 ka); under this climate state, drought was strongly cyclic, recurring at frequencies that are similar to twentieth century multidecadal phase changes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This pattern remained consistent throughout much of the midHolocene, continuing until ca. 4.5 ka. After this time the mean climate state changed, and drought recurrence became unstable; periods of cyclic drought alternated with periods of less predictable drought. The timing of this shift in climate was coincident with widespread severe drought in the mid-continent of North America. Overall, the strongest periodicity in severe drought occurred during the mid-Holocene, when temperatures in the northern Rocky Mountains were warmer than today.

Prolonged instability prior to a regime shift.

Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia.

Implications of climate change for Daphnia in alpine lakes: predictions from long-term dynamics, spatial distribution, and a short-term experiment

Alpine lakes may be particularly useful as sentinels of climate change because they are highly sensitive to environmental conditions. To explore the potential biotic consequences of climate change in these systems, we conducted paleo- and neoecological observational studies, as well as a short-term experiment to examine Daphnia responses to changing environmental conditions in Rocky Mountain alpine lakes. Our analysis of a sediment core from Emerald Lake representing two periods from the Holocene revealed a significant positive relationship between the abundance of Daphnia remains and fossil Aulacoseira lirata, a diatom associated with deeper mixing depths. In addition, we detected a significant increase in mean Daphnia density in the long-term record (1991–2005) from Pipit Lake, a trend that correlated well with increases in mean surface temperature. In our survey of Daphnia in 10 lakes in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, Daphnia abundance was positively correlated with both dissolved organic carbon concentration and temperature. Finally, our short-term incubation experiment demonstrated significant effects of physical conditions (i.e., temperature and/or UV radiation) and water chemistry on the juvenile growth rate of Daphnia. Overall, our findings highlight the sensitivity of Daphnia to changes in mixing depth, water temperature, and dissolved organic matter, three limnological variables that are highly sensitive to changes not only in air temperature, but also to precipitation and location of the treeline in alpine catchments. Thus, we conclude that Daphnia abundance could serve as a powerful sentinel response to climate change in alpine lakes of the Rocky Mountains.

Environmental history of a closed-basin lake in the US Great Plains: Diatom response to variations in groundwater flow regimes over the last 8500 cal. yr BP

Sediment records from closed-basin lakes in the Northern Great Plains (NGP) of North America have contributed significantly to our understanding of regional paleoclimatology. A high-resolution (near decadal) fossil diatom record from Kettle Lake, ND, USA that spans the last 8500 cal. yr BP is interpreted in concert with percent abundance of aragonite in the sediment as an independent proxy of groundwater flow to the lake (and thus lake water level). Kettle Lake has been relatively fresh for the majority of the Holocene, likely because of the coarse substrata and a strong connection to the underlying aquifer. Interpretation of diatom assemblages in four groups indicative of low to high groundwater flow, based on the percent of aragonite in sediments, allow interpretations of arid periods (and probable meromictic lake conditions) that could not be detected based on diatom-based salinity reconstructions alone. At the centennial–millennial scale, the diatom record suggests humid/wet periods from 8351 to 8088, 4364 to 1406 and 872 to 620 cal. yr BP, with more arid periods intervening. During the last ~ 4500 years, decadal–centennial scale periods of drought have taken place, despite the generally wetter climate. These droughts appear to have had similar impacts on the Kettle Lake hydrology as the ‘Dust Bowl’ era droughts, but were longer in duration.

Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ecosystem

Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana, USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts.

A multiproxy record of postglacial climate variability from a shallowing, 12-m deep sub-alpine bog in the southeastern San Juan Mountains of Colorado, USA

Pollen assemblages, diatom assemblages, and sedimentology, from Cumbres Bog in the southeastern San Juan Mountains of Colorado, provide a record of climate and environmental change since the end of the last glacial maximum (LGM). Cumbres Bog is unusually deep (basal sediments extend 12 m below the surface) for its altitude (~3050 m a.s.l.) and we extracted 7 m core of continuous sediment below ~5 m of water and peat. The resulting record provides strong evidence of: a period of warming immediately after the LGM (~18–13 cal. kyr BP), a cool interval coinciding with the Younger Dryas (~12.8–11.5 cal. kyr BP), a warm stable period from 10 to 6 cal. kyr BP, and a cooler and highly variable climate interval after 6 cal. kyr BP. More specifically, pollen ratios and fossil diatoms indicate that cold periods generally match with previously identified periods of rapid climate change that occurred at 10.6, 8.7–7.9, 7.0–6.9, 5.4–5.2, 3.3–3.0, 2.3, 2.0 and 1.5 cal. kyr BP. This record also adds resolution to previous regional records and indicates that the periodicity of climate variability changed from 2000–3000 years to 700–1100 years around 6 cal. kyr BP and to <500 years after 3.5 cal. kyr BP. Overall, our record provides important, relatively high-resolution paleoclimatic information for this remote region of the southern Rockies.

The influence of basin morphometry on the regional coherence of patterns of diatom-inferred salinity in lakes of the northern Great Plains (USA)

Sedimentary diatom profiles from saline lakes are frequently used to reconstruct lakewater salinity as an indicator of drought. However, diatom-inferred salinity (DI-salinity) reconstructions from geographically proximal sites in the Great Plains (USA) have yielded disparate results. This study explores how physical changes in lake habitat resulting from drought may affect climate inferences from salinity reconstructions. Differences in relationships among drought, lake-level change, and diatom community structure over the last century were examined for three saline lakes in the northern Great Plains with dissimilar DI-salinity records. At each site, models were developed relating available planktic:benthic (P:B) habitat area to lake-level change, and models were compared with instrumental drought records and fossil diatoms to understand how drought conditions were recorded in sedimentary diatom assemblages. The degree to which DI-salinity tracked drought variation was affected by site-specific physical characteristics that influenced the relationship between lake-level change and P:B habitat zonation within each lake. Moon Lake showed the strongest correlation between drought and DI-salinity, although this relationship was weaker during wetter conditions, as highstands resulted in a larger influx of benthic diatoms. At Coldwater Lake, a dual-basin system, P:B varied depending on lake level, which apparently reduced the correlation between DI-salinity and drought. At Lake Cochrane, the simplest and freshest of the three basins, the P:B of fossil diatoms was a better proxy for drought than DI-salinity. The integration of additional ecological characteristics into interpretations of paleoclimate records, particularly for biologically-based proxies, may improve reconstructions of regional patterns of climate variation.