Jelle Assink

A 500-kiloton airburst over Chelyabinsk and an enhanced hazard from small impactors

Most large (over a kilometre in diameter) near-Earth asteroids are now known, but recognition that airbursts (or fireballs resulting from nuclear-weapon-sized detonations of meteoroids in the atmosphere) have the potential to do greater damage than previously thought has shifted an increasing portion of the residual impact risk (the risk of impact from an unknown object) to smaller objects. Above the threshold size of impactor at which the atmosphere absorbs sufficient energy to prevent a ground impact, most of the damage is thought to be caused by the airburst shock wave, but owing to lack of observations this is uncertain. Here we report an analysis of the damage from the airburst of an asteroid about 19 metres (17 to 20 metres) in diameter southeast of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on 15 February 2013, estimated to have an energy equivalent of approximately 500 (±100) kilotons of trinitrotoluene (TNT, where 1 kiloton of TNT = 4.185×1012 joules). We show that a widely referenced technique of estimating airburst damage does not reproduce the observations, and that the mathematical relations based on the effects of nuclear weapons—almost always used with this technique—overestimate blast damage. This suggests that earlier damage estimates near the threshold impactor size are too high. We performed a global survey of airbursts of a kiloton or more (including Chelyabinsk), and find that the number of impactors with diameters of tens of metres may be an order of magnitude higher than estimates based on other techniques. This suggests a non-equilibrium (if the population were in a long-term collisional steady state the size-frequency distribution would either follow a single power law or there must be a size-dependent bias in other surveys) in the near-Earth asteroid population for objects 10 to 50 metres in diameter, and shifts more of the residual impact risk to these sizes.

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System (IFS) cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASAs Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) re-analyses and the free running climate Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral domains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15-20 days. At shorter time-scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project (ARISE) that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

Infrasound Scattering from Atmospheric Anisotropic Inhomogeneities

A model of anisotropic fluctuations forming in wind velocity and air temperature in a stably stratified atmosphere is described. The formation mechanism of these fluctuations is associated with the cascade transport of energy from sources of atmospheric gravity waves to wave disturbances with shorter vertical scales (than the scales of the initial disturbances generated by the sources) and, at the same time, with longer horizontal scales. This model is used to take into account the effects of infrasonic-wave scattering from anisotropic inhomogeneities of the effective sound speed in the atmosphere. Experimental data on the stratospheric, mesospheric, and thermospheric arrivals of signals (generated by explosion sources such as surface explosions and volcanoes) in the zones of acoustic shadow are interpreted on the basis of the results of calculations of the scattered infrasonic field in the context of the parabolic equation. The signals calculated with consideration for the fine structure of wind velocity and air temperature are compared with the signals observed in a shadow zone. The possibility to acoustically sound this structure at heights of both the middle and upper atmospheres is discussed.

Bidirectional infrasonic ducts associated with sudden stratospheric warming events

In January 2011, the state of the polar vortex in the midlatitudes changed significantly due to a minor sudden stratospheric warming event. As a result, a bidirectional duct for infrasound propagation developed in the middle atmosphere that persisted for 2 weeks. The ducts were due to two zonal wind jets, one between 30 and 50 km and the other around 70 km altitude. In this paper, using microbarom source modeling, a previously unidentified source region in the eastern Mediterranean is identified, besides the more well known microbarom source regions in the Atlantic Ocean. Infrasound data are then presented in which the above mentioned bidirectional duct is observed in microbarom signals recorded at the International Monitoring System station I48TN in Tunisia, from the Mediterranean region to the east and from the Atlantic Ocean to the west. While the frequency bands of the two sources overlap, the Mediterranean signal is coherent up to about 0.6 Hz. This observation is consistent with the microbarom source modeling; the discrepancy in the frequency band is related to differences in the ocean wave spectra for the two basins considered. This work demonstrates the sensitivity of infrasound to stratospheric dynamics and illustrates that the classic paradigm of a unidirectional stratospheric duct for infrasound propagation can be broken during a sudden stratospheric warming event.

Evaluation of wind and temperature profiles from ECMWF analysis on two hemispheres using volcanic infrasound

In this paper, we evaluate vertical wind and temperature profiles that are produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric analysis. The evaluation is carried out on both hemispheres: we make use of stratospheric infrasound arrivals from Mount Etna (37°N) and Mount Yasur (22°S). The near-continuous, high activity of both volcanoes permits the study of stratospheric propagation along well-defined paths with a time resolution ranging from hours to multiple years. Infrasound observables are compared to theoretical estimates obtained from acoustic propagation modeling using the ECMWF analysis. While a first-order agreement is found for both hemispheres, we report on significant discrepancies around some of the equinox periods and other intervals during which the atmosphere is in a state of transition and dynamical oscillations of the atmosphere dominate over the general circulation. We present an inversion study in which we make use of measured trace velocity estimates to estimate first-order effective sound speed model updates in a Bayesian framework. Deviations from the a priori models around the stratopause up to 10% (≈ 30 m s−1) are estimated. Such updates are in line with the results from comparisons between ECMWF analysis and observations from lidar and microwave Doppler spectroradiometer facilities that were colocated during the course of the 2012–2013 Atmospheric dynamics Research and InfraStructure in Europe (ARISE) measurement campaign.

The stratospheric arrival pair in infrasound propagation.

The ideal case of a deep and well-formed stratospheric duct for long range infrasound propagation in the absence of tropospheric ducting is considered. A canonical form, that of a pair of arrivals, for ground returns of impulsive signals in a stratospheric duct is determined. The canonical form is derived from the geometrical acoustics approximation, and is validated and extended through full wave modeling. The full caustic structure of the field of ray paths is found and used to determine phase relations between the contributions to the wavetrain from different propagation paths. Finally, comparison with data collected from the 2005 fuel gas depot explosion in Buncefield, England is made. The correspondence between the theoretical results and the observations is shown to be quite good.

Study of the wind velocity‐layered structure in the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere by using infrasound probing of the atmosphere

The wind velocity structure in the upper stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere (MLT) is studied with the recently developed method of infrasound probing of the atmosphere. The method is based on the effect of infrasound scattering from highly anisotropic wind velocity and temperature inhomogeneities in the middle and upper atmosphere. The scattered infrasound field propagates in the acoustic shadow zones, where it is detected by microbarometers. The vertical profiles of the wind velocity fluctuations in the upper stratosphere (30–52 km) and MLT (90–140 km) are retrieved from the waveforms and travel times of the infrasound signals generated by explosive sources such as volcanoes and surface explosions. The fine-scale wind-layered structure in these layers was poorly observed until present time by other remote sensing methods, including radars and satellites. It is found that the MLT atmospheric layer (90–102 km) can contain extremely high vertical gradients of the wind velocity, up to 10 m/s per 100 m. The effect of a fine-scale wind velocity structure on the waveforms of infrasound signals is studied. The vertical wave number spectra of the retrieved wind velocity fluctuations are obtained for the upper stratosphere. Despite the difference in the locations of the explosive sources all the obtained spectra show the existence of high vertical wave number spectral tail with a −3 power law decay. The obtained spectral characteristics of the wind fluctuations are necessary for improvement of gravity wave drag parameterizations for numerical weather forecast.

Evanescent wave coupling in a geophysical system: Airborne acoustic signals from the Mw 8.1 Macquarie Ridge earthquake

Atmospheric low-frequency sound, i.e., infrasound, from underwater events has not been considered thus far, due to the high impedance contrast of the water-air interface making it almost fully reflective. Here we report for the first time on atmospheric infrasound from a large underwater earthquake (Mw 8.1) near the Macquarie Ridge, which was recorded at 1325 km from the epicenter. Seismic waves coupled to hydroacoustic waves at the ocean floor, after which the energy entered the Sound Fixing and Ranging channel and was detected on a hydrophone array. The energy was diffracted by a seamount and an oceanic ridge, which acted as a secondary source, into the water column followed by coupling into the atmosphere. The latter results from evanescent wave coupling and the attendant anomalous transparency of the sea surface for very low frequency acoustic waves.

Modal expansions for infrasound propagation and their implications for ground-to-ground propagation

The use of expansions in vertical eigenmodes for long range infrasound propagation modeling in the effective sound speed approximation is investigated. The question of convergence of such expansions is related to the maximum elevation angles that are required. Including atmospheric attenuation leads to a non-self-adjoint vertical eigenvalue problem. The use of leading order perturbation theory for the modal attenuation is compared to the results of numerical solutions to the non-self-adjoint eigenvalue problem and conditions under which the perturbative result is expected to be valid are obtained. Modal expansions are obtained in the frequency domain; broadband signals must be modeled through Fourier reconstruction. Such broadband signal reconstruction is investigated and the relation between bandwidth, wavetrain duration, and frequency sampling is discussed.

Toward an Improved Representation of Middle Atmospheric Dynamics Thanks to the ARISE Project

This paper reviews recent progress toward understanding the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in the framework of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe (ARISE) initiative. The middle atmosphere, integrating the stratosphere and mesosphere, is a crucial region which influences tropospheric weather and climate. Enhancing the understanding of middle atmosphere dynamics requires improved measurement of the propagation and breaking of planetary and gravity waves originating in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Inter-comparison studies have shown large discrepancies between observations and models, especially during unresolved disturbances such as sudden stratospheric warmings for which model accuracy is poorer due to a lack of observational constraints. Correctly predicting the variability of the middle atmosphere can lead to improvements in tropospheric weather forecasts on timescales of weeks to season. The ARISE project integrates different station networks providing observations from ground to the lower thermosphere, including the infrasound system developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification, the Lidar Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change, complementary meteor radars, wind radiometers, ionospheric sounders and satellites. This paper presents several examples which show how multi-instrument observations can provide a better description of the vertical dynamics structure of the middle atmosphere, especially during large disturbances such as gravity waves activity and stratospheric warming events. The paper then demonstrates the interest of ARISE data in data assimilation for weather forecasting and re-analyzes the determination of dynamics evolution with climate change and the monitoring of atmospheric extreme events which have an atmospheric signature, such as thunderstorms or volcanic eruptions.