L. G. Evers

Chelyabinsk airburst, damage assessment, meteorite recovery, and characterization

Deep Impact? On 15 February 2013, the Russian district of Chelyabinsk, with a population of more than 1 million, suffered the impact and atmospheric explosion of a 20-meter-wide asteroid—the largest impact on Earth by an asteroid since 1908. Popova et al. (p. 1069, published online 7 November; see the Perspective by Chapman) provide a comprehensive description of this event and of the body that caused it, including detailed information on the asteroid orbit and atmospheric trajectory, damage assessment, and meteorite recovery and characterization. A detailed study of a recent asteroid impact provides an opportunity to calibrate the damage caused by these rare events. [Also see Perspective by Chapman] The asteroid impact near the Russian city of Chelyabinsk on 15 February 2013 was the largest airburst on Earth since the 1908 Tunguska event, causing a natural disaster in an area with a population exceeding one million. Because it occurred in an era with modern consumer electronics, field sensors, and laboratory techniques, unprecedented measurements were made of the impact event and the meteoroid that caused it. Here, we document the account of what happened, as understood now, using comprehensive data obtained from astronomy, planetary science, geophysics, meteorology, meteoritics, and cosmochemistry and from social science surveys. A good understanding of the Chelyabinsk incident provides an opportunity to calibrate the event, with implications for the study of near-Earth objects and developing hazard mitigation strategies for planetary protection.

A 500-kiloton airburst over Chelyabinsk and an enhanced hazard from small impactors

Most large (over a kilometre in diameter) near-Earth asteroids are now known, but recognition that airbursts (or fireballs resulting from nuclear-weapon-sized detonations of meteoroids in the atmosphere) have the potential to do greater damage than previously thought has shifted an increasing portion of the residual impact risk (the risk of impact from an unknown object) to smaller objects. Above the threshold size of impactor at which the atmosphere absorbs sufficient energy to prevent a ground impact, most of the damage is thought to be caused by the airburst shock wave, but owing to lack of observations this is uncertain. Here we report an analysis of the damage from the airburst of an asteroid about 19u2009metres (17 to 20u2009metres) in diameter southeast of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on 15 February 2013, estimated to have an energy equivalent of approximately 500u2009(±100) kilotons of trinitrotoluene (TNT, where 1 kiloton of TNT = 4.185×1012 joules). We show that a widely referenced technique of estimating airburst damage does not reproduce the observations, and that the mathematical relations based on the effects of nuclear weapons—almost always used with this technique—overestimate blast damage. This suggests that earlier damage estimates near the threshold impactor size are too high. We performed a global survey of airbursts of a kiloton or more (including Chelyabinsk), and find that the number of impactors with diameters of tens of metres may be an order of magnitude higher than estimates based on other techniques. This suggests a non-equilibrium (if the population were in a long-term collisional steady state the size-frequency distribution would either follow a single power law or there must be a size-dependent bias in other surveys) in the near-Earth asteroid population for objects 10 to 50u2009metres in diameter, and shifts more of the residual impact risk to these sizes.

Listening to sounds from an exploding meteor and oceanic waves

Low frequency sound (infrasound) measurements have been selected within the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) as a technique to detect and identify possible nuclear explosions. The Seismology Division of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) operates since 1999 an experimental infrasound array of 16 micro-barometers. Here we show the rare detection and identification of an exploding meteor above Northern Germany on November 8th, 1999 with data from the Deelen Infrasound Array (DIA). At the same time, sound was radiated from the Atlantic Ocean, South of Iceland, due to the atmospheric coupling of standing ocean waves, called microbaroms. Occurring with only 0.04 Hz difference in dominant frequency, DIA proved to be able to discriminate between the physically different sources of infrasound through its unique lay-out and instruments. The explosive power of the meteor being 1.5 kT TNT is in the range of nuclear explosions and therefore relevant to the CTBT.

The Characteristics of Infrasound, its Propagation and Some Early History

Infrasound is inaudible sound as it consists of frequencies lower than 20 Hz, i.e. the human hearing threshold. Low frequency acoustic signals were first discovered after the eruption of the Krakatoa (Indonesia) in 1883. Owing to its low frequency content, this infrasound traveled up to four times around the globe while reaching altitudes over 100 k. The ability to detect explosions with infrasound resulted in substantial scientific and societal interest during World War I and the era of atmospheric nuclear testing. This interest diminished as nuclear tests were confined to the underground under the Limited Test Ban Treaty in 1963. Recently, with the signature of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, infrasound gained renewed attention as it is being used as a verification technique. This chapter describes the physical characteristics of infrasound, in relation to other atmospheric waves. The propagation through the highly dynamic atmosphere is addressed with an introduction to the characteristics of the medium. Next, some highlights of the remarkable history of infrasound are given, and early instrumental developments are shown. This chapter aims at establishing the framework for the study of infrasound and its application to atmospheric sciences.

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System (IFS) cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASAs Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) re-analyses and the free running climate Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral domains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15-20 days. At shorter time-scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project (ARISE) that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

Infrasonic signature of the 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming

The study of infrasound is experiencing a renaissance since it was chosen as a verification technique for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. The success of the verification technique strongly depends on knowledge of upper atmospheric processes. The ability of infrasound to probe the upper atmosphere starts to be exploited, taking the field beyond its monitoring application. Processes in the stratosphere couple to the troposphere and influence our daily weather and climate. Infrasound delivers actual observations on the state of the stratosphere with a high spatial and temporal resolution. Here we show the infrasonic signature, passively obtained, of a drastic change in the stratosphere due to the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) of January 2009. With this study, we infer the enormous capacity of infrasound in acoustic remote sensing of stratospheric processes on a global scale with surface based instruments.

Long‐range acoustic observations of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption, Iceland, April–May 2010

[1]xa0The April–May 2010 summit eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, Iceland, was recorded by 14 atmospheric infrasound sensor arrays at ranges between 1,700 and 3,700 km, indicating that infrasound from modest-size eruptions can propagate for thousands of kilometers in atmospheric waveguides. Although variations in both atmospheric propagation conditions and background noise levels at the sensors generate fluctuations in signal-to-noise ratios and signal detectability, array processing techniques successfully discriminate between volcanic infrasound and ambient coherent and incoherent noise. The current global infrasound network is significantly more dense and sensitive than any previously operated network and signals from large volcanic explosions are routinely recorded. Because volcanic infrasound is generated during the explosive release of fluid into the atmosphere, it is a strong indicator that an eruption has occurred. Therefore, long-range infrasonic monitoring may aid volcanic explosion detection by complementing other monitoring technologies, especially in remote regions with sparse ground-based instrument networks.

Infrasonic forerunners: Exceptionally fast acoustic phases

[1]xa0A vapor cloud explosion occurred at an oil depot near Buncefield in the UK in 2005. Three infrasound arrays in the Netherlands detected various stratospheric phases. Some of these phases appeared with celerities, i.e., horizontal propagation velocity, in the conventional range of 0.28 to 0.31 km/s. Exceptionally fast arrivals, infrasonic forerunners, were identified with celerities of 0.31 to 0.36 km/s. These phases could be explained by head-wave-like propagation in a high velocity acoustic channel between 40 and 50 km height, where stratospheric zonal winds reached values of 120 m/s. The manifestation of infrasonic forerunners is validated by modeling with raytracing through actual atmospheric models and determining the celerity, apparent velocity and back azimuth. One phase occurred with a celerity of 0.25 km/s. Hence, we propose a new celerity range for fast stratospheric phases of 0.31 to 0.36 km/s and to lower the limit of the conventional range to 0.25 km/s.

Characterization of infrasound from lightning

[1]xa0During thunderstorm activity in the Netherlands, electromagnetic and infrasonic signals are emitted due to the process of lightning and thunder. It is shown that correlating infrasound detections with results from a electromagnetic lightning detection network is successful up to distances of 50 km from the infrasound array. Infrasound recordings clearly show blastwave characteristics which can be related to cloud-ground discharges, with a dominant frequency between 1–5 Hz. Amplitude measurements of CG discharges can partly be explained by the beam pattern of a line source with a dominant frequency of 3.9 Hz, up to a distance of 20 km. The ability to measure lightning activity with infrasound arrays has both positive and negative implications for CTBT verification purposes. As a scientific application, lightning studies can benefit from the worldwide infrasound verification system.

Bidirectional infrasonic ducts associated with sudden stratospheric warming events

In January 2011, the state of the polar vortex in the midlatitudes changed significantly due to a minor sudden stratospheric warming event. As a result, a bidirectional duct for infrasound propagation developed in the middle atmosphere that persisted for 2 weeks. The ducts were due to two zonal wind jets, one between 30 and 50 km and the other around 70 km altitude. In this paper, using microbarom source modeling, a previously unidentified source region in the eastern Mediterranean is identified, besides the more well known microbarom source regions in the Atlantic Ocean. Infrasound data are then presented in which the above mentioned bidirectional duct is observed in microbarom signals recorded at the International Monitoring System station I48TN in Tunisia, from the Mediterranean region to the east and from the Atlantic Ocean to the west. While the frequency bands of the two sources overlap, the Mediterranean signal is coherent up to about 0.6 Hz. This observation is consistent with the microbarom source modeling; the discrepancy in the frequency band is related to differences in the ocean wave spectra for the two basins considered. This work demonstrates the sensitivity of infrasound to stratospheric dynamics and illustrates that the classic paradigm of a unidirectional stratospheric duct for infrasound propagation can be broken during a sudden stratospheric warming event.