Jenny Y. Chien

Pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics and the stages of drug development: Role of modeling and simulation

Pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) modeling and simulation (M&S) are well-recognized powerful tools that enable effective implementation of the learn-and-confirm paradigm in drug development. The impact of PK/PD M&S on decision making and drug development risk management is dependent on the question being asked and on the availability and quality of data accessible at a particular stage of drug development. For instance, M&S methodologies can be used to capture uncertainty and use the expected variability in PK/PD data generated in preclinical species for projection of the plausible range of clinical dose; clinical trial simulation can be used to forecast the probability of achieving a target response in patients based on information obtained in early phases of development. Framing the right question and capturing the key assumptions are critical components of the “learn-and-confirm” paradigm in the drug development process and are essential to delivering high-value PK/PD M&S results. Selected works of PK/PD modeling and simulation from preclinical to phase III are presented as case examples in this article.

PHRMA CPCDC initiative on predictive models of human pharmacokinetics, part 5: Prediction of plasma concentration–time profiles in human by using the physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic modeling approach

The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for simulating human plasma concentration-time profiles for the unique drug dataset of blinded data that has been assembled as part of a Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America initiative. Combinations of absorption, distribution, and clearance models were tested with a PBPK approach that has been developed from published equations. An assessment of the quality of the model predictions was made on the basis of the shape of the plasma time courses and related parameters. Up to 69% of the simulations of plasma time courses made in human demonstrated a medium to high degree of accuracy for intravenous pharmacokinetics, whereas this number decreased to 23% after oral administration based on the selected criteria. The simulations resulted in a general underestimation of drug exposure (Cmax and AUC0- t ). The explanations for this underestimation are diverse. Therefore, in general it may be due to underprediction of absorption parameters and/or overprediction of distribution or oral first-pass. The implications of compound properties are demonstrated. The PBPK approach based on in vitro-input data was as accurate as the approach based on in vivo data. Overall, the scientific benefit of this modeling study was to obtain more extensive characterization of predictions of human PK from PBPK methods.

PhRMA CPCDC initiative on predictive models of human pharmacokinetics, part 3: Comparative assessement of prediction methods of human clearance

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of various allometric and in vitro-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) methodologies with and without plasma protein binding corrections for the prediction of human intravenous (i.v.) clearance (CL). The objective was also to evaluate the IVIVE prediction methods with animal data. Methodologies were selected from the literature. Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America member companies contributed blinded datasets from preclinical and clinical studies for 108 compounds, among which 19 drugs had i.v. clinical pharmacokinetics data and were used in the analysis. In vivo and in vitro preclinical data were used to predict CL by 29 different methods. For many compounds, in vivo data from only two species (generally rat and dog) were available and/or the required in vitro data were missing, which meant some methods could not be properly evaluated. In addition, 66 methods of predicting oral (p.o.) area under the curve (AUCp.o. ) were evaluated for 107 compounds using rational combinations of i.v. CL and bioavailability (F), and direct scaling of observed p.o. CL from preclinical species. Various statistical and outlier techniques were employed to assess the predictability of each method. Across methods, the maximum success rate in predicting human CL for the 19 drugs was 100%, 94%, and 78% of the compounds with predictions falling within 10-fold, threefold, and twofold error, respectively, of the observed CL. In general, in vivo methods performed slightly better than IVIVE methods (at least in terms of measures of correlation and global concordance), with the fu intercept method and two-species-based allometry (rat-dog) being the best performing methods. IVIVE methods using microsomes (incorporating both plasma and microsomal binding) and hepatocytes (not incorporating binding) resulted in 75% and 78%, respectively, of the predictions falling within twofold error. IVIVE methods using other combinations of binding assumptions were much less accurate. The results for prediction of AUCp.o. were consistent with i.v. CL. However, the greatest challenge to successful prediction of human p.o. CL is the estimate of F in human. Overall, the results of this initiative confirmed predictive performance of common methodologies used to predict human CL.

Ethanol and production of the hepatotoxic metabolite of acetaminophen in healthy adults

Recent case reports suggest that consumption of ethanol may increase the risk of liver injury induced by acetaminophen (INN, paracetamol). However, this possibility is at odds with previous clinical studies that showed that acute ethanol ingestion could protect against hepatotoxicity by inhibiting CYP‐mediated acetaminophen oxidation. We tested the hypothesis that ethanol ingestion can increase susceptibility to acetaminophen toxicity if acetaminophen ingestion occurs shortly after ethanol is cleared from the body.

STOCHASTIC PREDICTION OF CYP3A-MEDIATED INHIBITION OF MIDAZOLAM CLEARANCE BY KETOCONAZOLE

Conventional methods to forecast CYP3A-mediated drug-drug interactions have not employed stochastic approaches that integrate pharmacokinetic (PK) variability and relevant covariates to predict inhibition in terms of probability and uncertainty. Empirical approaches to predict the extent of inhibition may not account for nonlinear or non-steady-state conditions, such as first-pass effects or accumulation of inhibitor concentration with multiple dosing. A physiologically based PK model was developed to predict the inhibition of CYP3A by ketoconazole (KTZ), using midazolam (MDZ) as the substrate. The model integrated PK models of MDZ and KTZ, in vitro inhibition kinetics of KTZ, and the variability and uncertainty associated with these parameters. This model predicted the time- and dose-dependent inhibitory effect of KTZ on MDZ oral clearance. The predictive performance of the model was validated using the results of five published KTZ-MDZ studies. The model improves the accuracy of predicting the inhibitory effect of increasing KTZ dosing on MDZ PK by incorporating a saturable KTZ efflux from the site of enzyme inhibition in the liver. The results of simulations using the model supported the KTZ dose of 400 mg once daily as the optimal regimen to achieve maximum inhibition by KTZ. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the most influential variable on the prediction of inhibition was the fractional clearance of MDZ mediated by CYP3A. The model may be used prospectively to improve the quantitative prediction of CYP3A inhibition and aid the optimization of study designs for CYP3A-mediated drug-drug interaction studies in drug development.

PhRMA CPCDC initiative on predictive models of human pharmacokinetics, part 2: Comparative assessment of prediction methods of human volume of distribution

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of various empirical, semimechanistic and mechanistic methodologies with and without protein binding corrections for the prediction of human volume of distribution at steady state (Vss ). PhRMA member companies contributed a set of blinded data from preclinical and clinical studies, and 18 drugs with intravenous clinical pharmacokinetics (PK) data were available for the analysis. In vivo and in vitro preclinical data were used to predict Vss by 24 different methods. Various statistical and outlier techniques were employed to assess the predictability of each method. There was not simply one method that predicts Vss accurately for all compounds. Across methods, the maximum success rate in predicting human Vss was 100%, 94%, and 78% of the compounds with predictions falling within tenfold, threefold, and twofold error, respectively, of the observed Vss . Generally, the methods that made use of in vivo preclinical data were more predictive than those methods that relied solely on in vitro data. However, for many compounds, in vivo data from only two species (generally rat and dog) were available and/or the required in vitro data were missing, which meant some methods could not be properly evaluated. It is recommended to initially use the in vitro tissue composition-based equations to predict Vss in preclinical species and humans, putting the assumptions and compound properties into context. As in vivo data become available, these predictions should be reassessed and rationalized to indicate the level of confidence (uncertainty) in the human Vss prediction. The top three methods that perform strongly at integrating in vivo data in this way were the Øie-Tozer, the rat -dog-human proportionality equation, and the lumped-PBPK approach. Overall, the scientific benefit of this study was to obtain greater characterization of predictions of human Vss from several methods available in the literature.

Predictions of the In Vivo Clearance of Drugs from Rate of Loss Using Human Liver Microsomes for Phase I and Phase II Biotransformations

PurposeThe utility of in vitro metabolism to accurately predict the clearance of hepatically metabolized drugs was evaluated. Three major goals were: (1) to optimize substrate concentration for the accurate prediction of clearance by comparing to Km value, (2) to prove that clearance of drugs by both oxidation and glucuronidation may be predicted by this method, and (3) to determine the effects of nonspecific microsomal binding and plasma protein binding.MethodsThe apparent Km values for five compounds along with scaled intrinsic clearances and predicted hepatic clearances for eight compounds were determined using a substrate loss method. Nonspecific binding to both plasma and microsomal matrices were also examined in the clearance calculations.ResultsThe Km values were well within the 2-fold variability expected for between laboratory comparisons. Using both phase I and/or phase II glucuronidation incubation conditions, the predictions of in vivo clearance using the substrate loss method were shown to correlate with published human clearance values. Of particular interest, for highly bound drugs (>95% plasma protein bound), the addition of a plasma protein binding term increased the accuracy of the prediction of in vivo clearance.ConclusionsThe substrate loss method may be used to accurately predict hepatic clearance of drugs.

PHRMA CPCDC Initiative on Predictive Models of Human Pharmacokinetics, Part 4: Prediction of Plasma Concentration-Time Profiles in Human from In Vivo Preclinical Data by Using the Wajima Approach

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Wajima allometry (Css -MRT) approach published in the literature, which is used to predict the human plasma concentration-time profiles from a scaling of preclinical species data. A diverse and blinded dataset of 108 compounds from PhRMA member companies was used in this evaluation. The human intravenous (i.v.) and oral (p.o.) pharmacokinetics (PK) data were available for 18 and 107 drugs, respectively. Three different scenarios were adopted for prediction of human PK profiles. In the first scenario, human clearance (CL) and steady-state volume of distribution (Vss ) were predicted by unbound fraction corrected intercept method (FCIM) and Øie-Tozer (OT) approaches, respectively. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR)-based approaches (TSrat-dog ) based on compound descriptors together with rat and dog data were utilized in the second scenario. Finally, in the third scenario, CL and Vss were predicted using the FCIM and Jansson approaches, respectively. For the prediction of oral pharmacokinetics, the human bioavailability and absorption rate constant were assumed as the average of preclinical species. Various statistical techniques were used for assessing the accuracy of the simulation scenarios. The human CL and Vss were predicted within a threefold error range for about 75% of the i.v. drugs. However, the accuracy in predicting key p.o. PK parameters appeared to be lower with only 58% of simulations falling within threefold of observed parameters. The overall ability of the Css -MRT approach to predict the curve shape of the profile was in general poor and ranged between low to medium level of confidence for most of the predictions based on the selected criteria.

Evaluation of various static in vitro-in vivo extrapolation models for risk assessment of the CYP3A inhibition potential of an investigational drug

Nine static models (seven basic and two mechanistic) and their respective cutoff values used for predicting cytochrome P450 3A (CYP3A) inhibition, as recommended by the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency, were evaluated using data from 119 clinical studies with orally administered midazolam as a substrate. Positive predictive error (PPE) and negative predictive error (NPE) rates were used to assess model performance, based on a cutoff of 1.25‐fold change in midazolam area under the curve (AUC) by inhibitor. For reversible inhibition, basic models using total or unbound systemic inhibitor concentration [I] had high NPE rates (46–47%), whereas those using intestinal luminal ([I]gut) values had no NPE but a higher PPE. All basic models for time‐dependent inhibition had no NPE and reasonable PPE rates (15–18%). Mechanistic static models that incorporate all interaction mechanisms and organ specific [I] values (enterocyte and hepatic inlet) provided a higher predictive precision, a slightly increased NPE, and a reasonable PPE. Various cutoffs for predicting the likelihood of CYP3A inhibition were evaluated for mechanistic models, and a cutoff of 1.25‐fold change in midazolam AUC appears appropriate.

PhRMA CPCDC Initiative on Predictive Models of Human Pharmacokinetics, Part 1: Goals, Properties of the Phrma Dataset, and Comparison with Literature Datasets

This study is part of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) initiative on predictive models of efficacy, safety, and compound properties. The overall goal of this part was to assess the predictability of human pharmacokinetics (PK) from preclinical data and to provide comparisons of available prediction methods from the literature, as appropriate, using a representative blinded dataset of drug candidates. The key objectives were to (i) appropriately assemble and blind a diverse dataset of in vitro, preclinical in vivo, and clinical data for multiple drug candidates, (ii) evaluate the dataset with empirical and physiological methodologies from the literature used to predict human PK properties and plasma concentration-time profiles, (iii) compare the predicted properties with the observed clinical data to assess the prediction accuracy using routine statistical techniques and to evaluate prediction method(s) based on the degree of accuracy of each prediction method, and (iv) compile and summarize results for publication. Another objective was to provide a mechanistic understanding as to why one methodology provided better predictions than another, after analyzing the poor predictions. A total of 108 clinical lead compounds were collected from 12 PhRMA member companies. This dataset contains intravenous (n = 19) and oral pharmacokinetic data (n = 107) in humans as well as the corresponding preclinical in vitro, in vivo, and physicochemical data. All data were blinded to protect the anonymity of both the data and the company submitting the data. This manuscript, which is the first of a series of manuscripts, summarizes the PhRMA initiative and the 108 compound dataset. More details on the predictability of each method are reported in companion manuscripts.