Jens Boysen-Hogrefe

A Bayesian approach to model-based clustering for binary panel probit models

Considering latent heterogeneity is of special importance in nonlinear models in order to gauge correctly the effect of explanatory variables on the dependent variable. A stratified model-based clustering approach is adapted for modeling latent heterogeneity in binary panel probit models. Within a Bayesian framework an estimation algorithm dealing with the inherent label switching problem is provided. Determination of the number of clusters is based on the marginal likelihood and a cross-validation approach. A simulation study is conducted to assess the ability of both approaches to determine on the correct number of clusters indicating high accuracy for the marginal likelihood criterion, with the cross-validation approach performing similarly well in most circumstances. Different concepts of marginal effects incorporating latent heterogeneity at different degrees arise within the considered model setup and are directly at hand within Bayesian estimation via MCMC methodology. An empirical illustration of the methodology developed indicates that consideration of latent heterogeneity via latent clusters provides the preferred model specification over a pooled and a random coefficient specification.

A NOTE ON BANKING AND HOUSING CRISES AND THE STRENGTH OF RECOVERIES

We investigate whether recoveries following normal recessions differ from recoveries following recessions that are associated with either banking crises or housing crises. Using a parametric panel framework that allows for a bounce-back in the level of output during the recovery, we find that normal recessions are followed by strong recoveries in advanced economies. This bounce-back is absent following recessions associated with banking crises and housing crises. Consequently, the permanent output losses of recessions associated with banking crises and housing crises are considerably larger than those of normal recessions.

Grunderwerbsteuer im Länderfinanzausgleich: Umverteilung der Zusatzlast der Besteuerung

ZusammenfassungInnerhalb weniger Jahre haben außer Bayern und Sachsen alle Länder die Sätze der Grunderwerbsteuer deutlich erhöht. Es ist plausibel, dass höhere Steuersätze durch Verhaltensreaktionen zu niedrigeren Immobilienumsätzen führen. Dafür gibt es inzwischen empirische Evidenz, auch für Deutschland. Durch die gesonderte Berücksichtigung der Grunderwerbsteuer im Länderfinanzausgleich werden negative fiskalische Effekte der Verhaltensreaktionen zum Teil ausgeglichen. Es besteht also ein Anreiz für zusätzliche Steuersatzanhebungen. Der Autor zeigt in verschiedenen Szenarien das Zusammenspiel von Verhaltensreaktionen mit den Regelungen zum Länderfinanzausgleich.AbstractApart from Bavaria and Saxony, all Federal States in Germany have considerably raised property transfer taxes in recent years. There is empirical evidence that increasing property transfer taxes leads to lower turnover on real estate markets. The corresponding negative fiscal impact is partly counterbalanced in the German fiscal equalisation scheme. This paper explicates the relationship between tax hikes and the transfer volume and calculates the responses of the fiscal equalisation scheme in various scenarios.