Lene Ryom

Trends in underlying causes of death in people with HIV from 1999 to 2011 (D:A:D): a multicohort collaboration

BACKGROUND With the advent of effective antiretroviral treatment, the life expectancy for people with HIV is now approaching that seen in the general population. Consequently, the relative importance of other traditionally non-AIDS-related morbidities has increased. We investigated trends over time in all-cause mortality and for specific causes of death in people with HIV from 1999 to 2011. METHODS Individuals from the Data collection on Adverse events of anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study were followed up from March, 1999, until death, loss to follow-up, or Feb 1, 2011, whichever occurred first. The D:A:D study is a collaboration of 11 cohort studies following HIV-1-positive individuals receiving care at 212 clinics in Europe, USA, and Australia. All fatal events were centrally validated at the D:A:D coordinating centre using coding causes of death in HIV (CoDe) methodology. We calculated relative rates using Poisson regression. FINDINGS 3909 of the 49,731 D:A:D study participants died during the 308,719 person-years of follow-up (crude incidence mortality rate, 12.7 per 1000 person-years [95% CI 12.3-13.1]). Leading underlying causes were: AIDS-related (1123 [29%] deaths), non-AIDS-defining cancers (590 [15%] deaths), liver disease (515 [13%] deaths), and cardiovascular disease (436 [11%] deaths). Rates of all-cause death per 1000 person-years decreased from 17.5 in 1999-2000 to 9.1 in 2009-11; we saw similar decreases in death rates per 1000 person-years over the same period for AIDS-related deaths (5.9 to 2.0), deaths from liver disease (2.7 to 0.9), and cardiovascular disease deaths (1.8 to 0.9). However, non-AIDS cancers increased slightly from 1.6 per 1000 person-years in 1999-2000 to 2.1 in 2009-11 (p=0.58). After adjustment for factors that changed over time, including CD4 cell count, we detected no decreases in AIDS-related death rates (relative rate for 2009-11 vs 1999-2000: 0.92 [0.70-1.22]). However, all-cause (0.72 [0.61-0.83]), liver disease (0.48 [0.32-0.74]), and cardiovascular disease (0.33 [0.20-0.53) death rates still decreased over time. The percentage of all deaths that were AIDS-related (87/256 [34%] in 1999-2000 and 141/627 [22%] in 2009-11) and liver-related (40/256 [16%] in 1999-2000 and 64/627 [10%] in 2009-11) decreased over time, whereas non-AIDS cancers increased (24/256 [9%] in 1999-2000 to 142/627 [23%] in 2009-11). INTERPRETATION Recent reductions in rates of AIDS-related deaths are linked with continued improvement in CD4 cell count. We hypothesise that the substantially reduced rates of liver disease and cardiovascular disease deaths over time could be explained by improved use of non-HIV-specific preventive interventions. Non-AIDS cancer is now the leading non-AIDS cause and without any evidence of improvement. FUNDING Oversight Committee for the Evaluation of Metabolic Complications of HAART, with representatives from academia, patient community, US Food and Drug Administration, European Medicines Agency and consortium of AbbVie, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead Sciences, ViiV Healthcare, Merck, Pfizer, F Hoffmann-La Roche, and Janssen Pharmaceuticals.

Association between antiretroviral exposure and renal impairment among HIV-positive persons with normal baseline renal function: the D:A:D study.

BACKGROUND Several antiretroviral agents (ARVs) are associated with chronic renal impairment, but the extent of such adverse events among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive persons with initially normal renal function is unknown. METHODS D:A:D study participants with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of ≥ 90 mL/min after 1 January 2004 were followed until they had a confirmed eGFR of ≤ 70 mL/min (the threshold below which we hypothesized that renal interventions may begin to occur) or ≤ 60 mL/min (a value indicative of moderately severe chronic kidney disease [CKD]) or until the last eGFR measurement during follow-up. An eGFR was considered confirmed if it was detected at 2 consecutive measurements ≥ 3 months apart. Predictors and eGFR-related ARV discontinuations were identified using Poisson regression. RESULTS Of 22 603 persons, 468 (2.1%) experienced a confirmed eGFR of ≤ 70 mL/min (incidence rate, 4.78 cases/1000 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval {CI}, 4.35-5.22]) and 131 (0.6%) experienced CKD (incidence rate, 1.33 cases/1000 person-years of follow-up [95% CI, 1.10-1.56]) during a median follow-up duration of 4.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 2.7-6.1 years). A current eGFR of 60-70 mL/min caused significantly higher rates of discontinuation of tenofovir (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 1.72 [95% CI, 1.38-2.14]) but not other ARVs compared with a current eGFR of ≥ 90 mL/min. Cumulative tenofovir use (aIRR, 1.18/year [95% CI, 1.12-1.25]) and ritonavir-boosted atazanavir use (aIRR, 1.19/year [95% CI, 1.09-1.32]) were independent predictors of a confirmed eGFR of ≤ 70 but were not significant predictors of CKD whereas ritonavir-boosted lopinavir use was a significant predictor for both end points (aIRR, 1.11/year [95% CI, 1.05-1.17] and 1.22/year [95% CI, 1.16-1.28], respectively). Associations were unaffected by censoring for concomitant ARV use but diminished after discontinuation of these ARVs. CONCLUSIONS Tenofovir, ritonavir-boosted atazanavir, and ritonavir-boosted lopinavir use were independent predictors of chronic renal impairment in HIV-positive persons without preexisting renal impairment. Increased tenofovir discontinuation rates with decreasing eGFR may have prevented further deteriorations. After discontinuation, the ARV-associated incidence rates decreased.

Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Chronic Kidney Disease in HIV Infection Using Prospective Cohort Data from the D:A:D Study

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. Methods and Findings A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with ≥3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Poisson regression was used to develop a risk score, externally validated on two independent cohorts. In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7–6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3–9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was −2 (interquartile range –4 to 2). There was a 1:393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score < 0, 33 events), rising to 1:47 and 1:6 in the medium (risk score 0–4, 103 events) and high risk groups (risk score ≥ 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166–3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159–278) and 21 (95% CI 19–23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506–1462), 88 (95% CI 69–121), and 9 (95% CI 8–10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3–12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6–8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria. Conclusions Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD.

Atazanavir is not associated with an increased risk of cardio- or cerebrovascular disease events.

Objective:To investigate whether there is any association between exposure to atazanavir (ATV), either when boosted or unboosted by ritonavir, and myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke within the D:A:D: Study. Design:Prospective cohort collaboration. Methods:Poisson regression was used to investigate the association between cumulative exposure to ATV and MI/stroke risk after adjusting for known demographic and clinical confounders, as well as cumulative and recent exposure to specific antiretroviral drugs. Follow-up started on enrolment in the study and ended at the earliest of: a new MI/stroke event, death, 6 months after last clinic visit, or 1 February 2011. Results:The incidence of MI varied from 0.28 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.26–0.30)]/100 person-years of follow-up (PYFU) in those with no exposure to ATV to 0.20 (0.12–0.32)/100 PYFU in those with more than 3 years exposure. There was no evidence of an association between cumulative exposure to ATV and MI risk, either in univariate [relative rate/year 0.96 (95% CI 0.88–1.04)] or multivariable [0.95 (0.87–1.05)] analyses. The incidence of stroke was 0.17 (0.16–0.19)/100 PYFU in those with no exposure to ATV and 0.17 (0.10–0.27)/100 PYFU in those with more than 3 years exposure. As with the MI endpoint, there was no evidence of an association with ATV exposure in either univariate [1.02 (0.98–1.05)] or multivariable [0.95 (0.87–1.05)] analyses. Conclusion:These results argue against a class-wide association between exposure to HIV protease inhibitors and the risk of cardio/cerebrovascular events.

An updated prediction model of the global risk of cardiovascular disease in HIV-positive persons, the Data-collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) Study

Background With the aging of the population living with HIV, the absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is increasing. There is a need to further facilitate the identification of persons at elevated risk in routine practice. Methods and results Prospective information was collected on 32,663 HIV-positive persons from 20 countries in Europe and Australia, who were free of CVD at entry into the Data-collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study. Cox regression models (full and reduced) were developed that predict the risk of a global CVD endpoint. The predictive performance of the D:A:D models were compared with a recent CVD prediction model from the Framingham study, which was assessed recalibrated to the D:A:D dataset. A total of 1010 CVD events occurred during 186,364.5 person-years. The full D:A:D CVD prediction model included age, gender, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, family history of CVD, diabetes, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, CD4 lymphocyte count, cumulative exposure to protease- and nucleoside reverse transcriptase-inhibitors, and current use of abacavir. A reduced model omitted antiretroviral therapies. The D:A:D models statistically significantly predicted risk more accurately than the recalibrated Framingham model (Harrell’s c-statistic of 0.791, 0.783 and 0.766 for the D:A:D full, D:A:D reduced, and Framingham models respectively; p < 0.001). The D:A:D models also more accurately predicted five-year CVD-risk for key prognostic subgroups. Conclusions An updated, easily recalibrated, global CVD-risk equation tailored to HIV-positive persons was developed using routinely collected CVD risk parameters and incorporating markers on immune function (CD4 lymphocyte count), and exposure to antiretroviral therapies. The estimated CVD risk can be used to quantify risk and to guide preventive care.

Cumulative and current exposure to potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals and development of chronic kidney disease in HIV-positive individuals with a normal baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate: a prospective international cohort study

BACKGROUND Whether or not the association between some antiretrovirals used in HIV infection and chronic kidney disease is cumulative is a controversial topic, especially in patients with initially normal renal function. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between duration of exposure to antiretrovirals and the development of chronic kidney disease in people with initially normal renal function, as measured by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). METHODS In this prospective international cohort study, HIV-positive adult participants (aged ≥16 years) from the D:A:D study (based in Europe, the USA, and Australia) with first eGFR greater than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) were followed from baseline (first eGFR measurement after Jan 1, 2004) until the occurrence of one of the following: chronic kidney disease; last eGFR measurement; Feb 1, 2014; or final visit plus 6 months (whichever occurred first). Chronic kidney disease was defined as confirmed (>3 months apart) eGFR lower than 60 mL/min per 1·73 m(2). The primary outcome was the occurrence of chronic kidney disease. Poisson regression was used to estimate the incidence rate of chronic kidney disease associated with cumulative exposure to tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, ritonavir-boosted atazanavir, ritonavir-boosted lopinavir, other ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitors, or abacavir. FINDINGS Between Jan 1, 2004, and July 26, 2013, 23,905 eligible individuals from the D:A:D study were included. Participants had a median baseline eGFR of 110 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) (IQR 100-125), a median age of 39 years (33-45), and median CD4 cell count of 441 cells per mm(3) (294-628). During a median follow-up of 7·2 years (IQR 5·1-8·9), 285 (1%) of 23,905 people developed chronic kidney disease (incidence 1·76 per 1000 person-years of follow-up [95% CI 1·56-1·97]). After adjustment, we recorded a significant increase in chronic kidney disease associated with each additional year of exposure to tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (adjusted incidence rate ratio 1·14 [95% CI 1·10-1·19], p<0·0001), ritonavir-boosted atazanavir (1·20 [1·13-1·26], p<0·0001), and ritonavir-boosted lopinavir (1·11 [1·06-1·16], p<0·0001), but not other ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitors or abacavir. INTERPRETATION In people with normal renal function, the annual incidence of chronic kidney disease increased for up to 6 years of exposure to tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, ritonavir-boosted atazanavir, or ritonavir-boosted lopinavir therapy. Although the absolute number of new cases of chronic kidney disease was modest, treatment with these antiretrovirals might result in an increasing and cumulative risk of chronic kidney disease. Patients on potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals or at high risk of chronic kidney disease should be closely monitored. FUNDING The Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy Oversight Committee.

Hepatitis B and C Co-Infection Are Independent Predictors of Progressive Kidney Disease in HIV-Positive, Antiretroviral-Treated Adults

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive individuals. Hepatitis C (HCV) co-infection has been associated with increased risk of CKD, but prior studies lack information on potential mechanisms. We evaluated the association between HCV or hepatitis B (HBV) co-infection and progressive CKD among 3,441 antiretroviral-treated clinical trial participants. Progressive CKD was defined as the composite of end-stage renal disease, renal death, or significant glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline (25% decline to eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or 25% decline with a baseline <60). Generalized Estimating Equations were used to model the odds of progressive CKD. At baseline, 13.8% and 3.3% of participants were co-infected with HCV and HBV, respectively. Median eGFR was 111, and 3.7% developed progressive CKD. After adjustment, the odds of progressive CKD were increased in participants with HCV (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.07–2.76) or HBV (OR 2.26, 95% CI 1.15–4.44). Participants with undetectable or low HCV-RNA had similar odds of progressive CKD as HCV seronegative participants, while participants with HCV-RNA >800,000 IU/ml had increased odds (OR 3.07; 95% CI 1.60–5.90). Interleukin-6, hyaluronic acid, and the FIB-4 hepatic fibrosis index were higher among participants who developed progressive CKD, but were no longer associated with progressive CKD after adjustment. Future studies should validate the relationship between HCV viremia and CKD. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00027352; NCT00004978

Essentials from the 2015 European AIDS Clinical Society (EACS) guidelines for the treatment of adult HIV-positive persons

The European AIDS Clinical Society (EACS) guidelines are intended for all clinicians involved in the care of HIV‐positive persons, and are available in print, online, and as a free App for download for iPhone and Android.

Predictors of advanced chronic kidney disease and end-stage renal disease in HIV-positive persons.

Objectives:Whilst several antiretroviral drugs have been associated with moderate chronic kidney disease (CKD), their contribution to advanced CKD and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) remain unknown. Design:D:A:D participants with at least three estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) after February 2004 were followed until the first of advanced CKD (confirmed eGFR ⩽ 30 ml/min, ≥3 months apart), ESRD (dialysis ≥3 months/ transplantation), 6 months after last visit or February 2012. Methods:Poisson regression was used to assess risk factors for advanced CKD/ESRD including exposure to potential nephrotoxic antiretroviral drugs and antiretroviral drug discontinuation rates according to latest eGFR. Results:Among 35 192 persons contributing 200 119 person years of follow-up (PYFU), 135 (0.4%) developed advanced CKD (n = 114)/ESRD (n = 21); incidence rate = 0.67 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.56–0.79]/1000 PYFU. Tenofovir (TDF) was particularly frequently discontinued as eGFR declined. After adjustment, those previously exposed but currently off TDF had similar advanced CKD/ESRD rate ratios compared with those unexposed [1.00 (95% CI, 0.66–1.51)], while those currently on TDF had reduced rates [0.23 (95% CI, 0.13–0.41)]. No consistent associations with other antiretroviral drugs were seen. Results were robust after time-lagging antiretroviral drug exposure, stratifying by baseline eGFR, and allowing for competing risks. Other predictors were diabetes, hypertension, baseline eGFR, smoking and current CD4+ cell count. The incidence rate in nonsmokers with baseline eGFR > 60 and no diabetes or hypertension was 0.16 (95% CI 0.09–0.26)/1000 PYFU. Conclusion:Neither current nor recent antiretroviral drug use predicted advanced CKD/ESRD during 6 years median follow-up in a large, heterogenenous and primarily white cohort. TDF discontinuation rates increased with decreasing eGFR, leaving a selected group still on TDF at lower advanced CKD/ESRD risk. Traditional renal risk factors and current CD4+ cell count were the strongest advanced CKD/ESRD predictors.

Antiretroviral Drug-Related Liver Mortality Among HIV-Positive Persons in the Absence of Hepatitis B or C Virus Coinfection: The Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs Study

BACKGROUND Liver diseases are the leading causes of death in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive persons since the widespread use of combination antiretroviral treatment (cART). Most of these deaths are due to hepatitis C (HCV) or B (HBV) virus coinfections. Little is known about other causes. Prolonged exposure to some antiretroviral drugs might increase hepatic mortality. METHODS All patients in the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs study without HCV or HBV coinfection were prospectively followed from date of entry until death or last follow-up. In patients with liver-related death, clinical charts were reviewed using a structured questionnaire. RESULTS We followed 22 910 participants without hepatitis virus coinfection for 114 478 person-years. There were 12 liver-related deaths (incidence, 0.10/1000 person-years); 7 due to severe alcohol use and 5 due to established ART-related toxicity. The rate of ART-related deaths in treatment-experienced persons was 0.04/1000 person-years (95% confidence interval, .01, .10). CONCLUSIONS We found a low incidence of liver-related deaths in HIV-infected persons without HCV or HBV coinfection. Liver-related mortality because of ART-related toxicity was rare.