Jeoung-Yun Kim

Interdecadal variation of Korea affecting TC activity in early 1980s

By performing a statistical change-point analysis of activities of the tropical cyclones (TCs) that have affected Korea (K-TCs), it was found that there was a significant change between 1983 and 1984. During the period of 1984–2004 (P2), more TCs migrated toward the west, recurved in the southwest, and affected Korea, compared to the period of 1965–1983 (P1). These changes for P2 were related to the southwestward expansion of the subtropical western Pacific high (SWPH) and, simultaneously, elongation of its elliptical shape toward Korea. Because of these changes, the central pressure and lifetime of K-TC during P2 were deeper and longer, respectively, than figures for P1. This stronger K-TC intensity for P2 was related to the more southwestward genesis due to the southwestward expansion of the SWPH. The weaker vertical wind shear environment during P2 was more favorable for K-TC to maintain a strong intensity in the mid-latitudes of East Asia.

Synoptic Analysis on the Trend of Northward Movement of Tropical Cyclone with Maximum Intensity

Regarding the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency, TCs between 1999 and 2013 were generated more frequently in the northwest waters of the tropical- and subtropical western North Pacific than TCs between 1977 and 1998. TCs over the period from 1977-1998 showed a northward track trend generated mostly from the distant sea in east of the Philippines via the mainland of the Philippines and the South China Sea to the west toward Indochina or from the distant sea in east of the Philippines to the distance sea in east of Japan. TCS over the period from 1999-2013 showed a northward shift pattern to the mid-latitude region mostly in East Asia. Therefore, TCs over the period from 1999-2013 tended to move to much higher latitudes than TCs over the period from 1977-1998, which also resulted in the high possibility of maximum TC intensity occurred in higher latitudes during the former period than the latter period. In the difference of 500 hPa streamline between two periods, the anomalous anticyclonic circulations were strengthened in whereas the anomalous monsoon trough was placed in north of the South China Sea, which was extended to the east up to . The mid-latitude in East Asia is affected by the anomalous southeasterlies due to the above anomalous anticyclonic circulations and anomalous monsoon trough. The anomalous southeasterlies play a role in anomalous steering flows that directed TCs to the mid-latitude regions in East Asia, which made the latitudes of the maximum intensities in TCs over the period from 1999 - 2013 further to the north than those in TCs over the period from 1977-1998.

A Study of Teleconnection between the South Asian and East Asian Monsoons: Comparison of Summer Monsoon Precipitation of Nepal and South Korea

This study is carried out in order to bridge the gap to understand the relationships between South Asian and East Asian monsoon systems by comparing the summer (June-September) precipitation of Nepal and South Korea. Summer monsoon precipitation data from Nepal and South Korea during 30 years (1981-2010) are used in this research to investigate the association. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are also used to see the nature of large scale phenomena. Statistical applications are used to analyze these data. The analyzed results show that summer monsoon precipitation is higher over Nepal (1513.98 ± 159.29 mm y -1 ) than that of South Korea (907.80 ± 204.71 mm y -1 ) and the wettest period in both the countries is July. However, the coefficient of variation shows that amplitude of interannual variation of summer monsoon over South Korea (22.55%) is larger in comparison to that of Nepal (10.52%). Summer monsoon precipitation of Nepal is found to be significantly correlated to that of South Korea with a correlation coefficient of 0.52 (99% confidence level). Large-scale circulations are studied to further investigate the relationship between the two countries. wind and specific humidity at 850 hPa show a strong westerly from Arabian Sea to BOB and from BOB, wind moves towards Nepal in a northwestward direction during the positive rainfall years. In case of East Asia, strong northward displacement of wind can be observed from Pacific to South Korea and strong anticyclone over the northwestern Pacific Ocean. However, during the negative rainfall years, in the South Asian region we can find weak westerly from the Arabian Sea to BOB, wind is blowing in a southerly direction from Nepal and Bangladesh to BOB.

The Characteristics of the Frequency and Damage for Meteorological Disasters in Korea

In this study, 690 meteorological disasters that are recorded on the Disaster Yearbook from NEMA (the National Emergency Management Agency) from 1979 to 2013 have been analyzed to investigate the frequency and damage and to evaluate the influence of meteorological disasters on the Korean economy. As a result, the total damage has so far reached the 28 trillion won, and 19.7 disasters has been occurred and brought 804 billion won damages on average. 41.9 percent of meteorological disasters have been occurred in the 1980s and 19.3 percent in the 2000s, but the corresponding damage cost was opposite: 11.4 percent in the 1980s and 60.6 percent in the 2000s. This result means meteorological disasters are becoming larger. 45.5 percent of the meteorological disasters have been found in summer season which is intensively affected by heavy rains and typhoons. The Disaster Yearbook from NEMA classifies the cause of meteorological disasters into 31 cases, and most of disasters are a single phenomenon (94.9%) than a complex phenomenon (5.1%). It was confirmed that the meteorological disaster trend has been changed in that heavy rain has appeared consistently every year, and the number of typhoons has been decreased compared to the 1980s. Heavy rain took the highest portion (37.8 percent) of total disasters and followed by typhoons (8.7 percent), but the amount of damages of meteorological disasters is more related to typhoons (45.6 percent) than heavy rains (35.4 percent). Both of them accounts for 81 percent of the total damage. Therefore, it is necessary to build intensive prevention measures for two phenomena. The highest loss, approximately 0.9% of GDP, was taken place in 1987. Categorically, typhoon RUSA brought 0.68 percent of GDP loss in 2002 and heavy rains caused 0.45 percent of GDP loss in 1987. This result means that if a high impact meteorological disaster occurs, the ripple effect is enormous as socioeconomic.

Change in Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity by Western North Pacific Teleconnection Pattern

Abstract This study analyzes the characteristics of Western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) activity and large-scale environments according to the Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern in summer. In the positive WP phase, an anomalous cyclone and an anomalous anticyclone develop in the low and middle latitudes of the East Asia, respectively. As a result, southeasterlies are reinforced in the northeast area of the East Asia including Korea and Japan which facilitates the movement of TC to this area, whereas northwesterlies are reinforced in the southwest area of the East Asia including South China and Indochina Peninsula which blocks the movement of TC to this area. Due to the spatial distribution of this reinforced pressure system, TCs develop, move, and turn more to the northeast of WNP than those in the negative WP phase. Consequently, the characteristics of this TC activity in the positive WP phase are associated with the location of upper tropospheric jet further to the northeast. Meanwhile, TCs in the negative WP phase mainly move to the west from Philippines toward south China and Indochina Peninsula. Furthermore, due to the terrain effect caused by the high passage frequency of TCs in the mainland China, the intensity of TCs are weaker than those in the positive WP phase.Key words:Western Pacific teleconnection pattern, Tropical cyclone, Large-scale environments, East Asia, Upper tropospheric jet

Interdecadal variation of April mean rainfall in Korea

The statistical change-point analysis demonstrates that there is a climate regime shift in the April mean precipitation in Korea in 1981. The April mean precipitation in the years post-1981 showed a distinct decrease compared to the years pre-1981. This phenomenon was also noticed in China and Japan, excluding south China. One of the major causes for this decrease in April mean precipitation was the increased snow depth in the mid-latitude regions of continental East Asia. This resulted in a strengthened cold and dry anticyclone anomaly over continental East Asia and a relatively weakened subtropical anticyclone anomaly over the western North Pacific, thus forcing a continuation of the typical winter pressure pattern of “high-West and low-East” in East Asia in April. The strengthened northerly anomaly from this zonal pressure pattern anomaly played a significant role in restricting the northern movement of the subtropical anticyclone and preventing the inflow of warm and humid air into Korea.

Reverse relationship between drought of mid-latitudes in East Asia and Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency in summer

This study found that there is a significant negative correlation between summer drought in Korea, China and Japan and the frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) in the subtropical western North Pacific (SWNP) using effective drought index (EDI). The frequency of TCs that affect Korea is low (high) in a year of summer drought (non-drought). As a case study, in 1994 when there is extremely severe summer drought in Korea, there was high frequency of TCs while in 2003 when there was least severe summer drought, the frequency of TCs is the lowest. Changes in the anomalous secondary circulation, namely anomalous upward (downward) flow in the SWNP and anomalous downward (upward) flow in the mid-latitudes of East Asia, are one of the causes of drought (non-drought).

Possible Influence of Western North Pacific Monsoon on Tropical Cyclone Activity Around Korea

In this study, the correlation between the frequency of summer tropical cyclones (TC) affecting areas around Korea over the last 37 years and the western North Pacific monsoon index (WNPMI) was analyzed. A clear positive correlation existed between the two variables, and this high positive correlation remained unchanged even when excluding El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. To investigate the causes of the positive correlation between these two variables, ENSO years were excluded, after which the 8 years with the highest WNPMI (positive WNPMI phase) and the 8 years with the lowest WNPMI (negative WNPMI phase) were selected, and the average difference between the two phases was analyzed. In the positive WNPMI phase, TCs usually occurred in the eastern waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, and tended to pass the East China Sea on their way north toward Korea and Japan. In the negative WNPMI phase, TCs usually occurred in the western waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, and tended to pass the South China Sea on their way west toward the southeastern Chinese coast and the Indochina peninsula. Therefore, TC intensity was higher in the positive WNPMI phase, during which TCs are able to gain sufficient energy from the sea while moving a long distance to areas nearby Korea. TCs also tended to occur more often in the positive WNPMI phase. In the difference between the two phases regarding 850 and 500 hPa streamline, anomalous cyclones were reinforced in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, while anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in mid-latitude East Asian areas. Due to these two anomalous pressure systems, anomalous southeasterlies developed in areas near Korea, with these anomalous southeasterlies playing the role of anomalous steering flows making the TCs head toward areas near Korea. Also, due to the anomalous cyclones developed in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, more TCs could occur in the positive WNPMI phase.

Features of Korean Rainfall Variability by Western Pacific Teleconnection Pattern

This study analyzes the correlation between Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern index (WPI) in April during 1954-2008 and rainfall amounts in the same month. Based on the results, it is identified that there have been strong positive correlations between central China, Korea and the southwestern part of Japan in the East Asian region. Through differences between 10 positive WP years and 10 negative WP years selected from the April WPI excluding ENSO years, it is found that rainfall amounts increase in April of positive WP years due to the following characteristics. Increases in rainfall amounts are evident in the East Asian middle latitudinal region where the positive correlation between the two variables is the highest and this is because anomalous southwesterlies are strengthened in the East Asian middle latitudinal region due to the spatial pattern of a south-low-north-high anomalous pressure system centered on this region that is made by anomalous anticyclones centered on the southeastern side of the region and other anomalous anticyclones centered on the northeastern side of the region. In addition, anomalous westerlies (jet) are strengthen in the upper troposphere of the East Asian middle latitudinal region and as a result, anomalous upward flows are strengthened in this region and thus anomalous warm air temperatures are formed in the entire level of the troposphere in the region. In addition to atmospheric environments, anomalous warm sea surface temperatures are formed in the seas in the East Asian middle latitudinal region to help the rainfall amount increases in the East Asian middle latitudinal region.

Deceasing Trend of Summertime TC Frequency in Japan

This study analyzed the climate regime shift using statistical change-point analysis on the time-series tropical cyclone (TC) frequency that affected Japan in July to September. The result showed that there was a significant change in 1995 and since then, it showed a trend of rapidly decreasing frequency. To determine the reason for this, differences between 1995 to 2012 (9512) period and 1978 to 1994 (7894) period were analayzed. First, regarding TC genesis, TCs during the 9512 period showed a characteristic of genesis from the southeast quadrant of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific and TCs during the 7894 period showed their genesis from the northwest quadrant. Regarding a TC track, TCs in the 7894 period had a strong trend of moving from the far east sea of the Philippines via the East China Sea to the mid-latitude region in East Asia while TCs in the 9512 period showed a trend of moving from the Philippines toward the southern part of China westward. Thus, TC intensity in the 7894 period, which can absorb sufficient energy from the sea as they moved a long distance over the sea, was stronger than that of 9512. Large-scale environments were analyzed to determine the cause of such difference in TC activity occurred between two periods. During the 9512 period, anomalous cold and dry anticyclones were developed strongly in the East Asia continent. As a result, Korea and Japan were affected by the anomalous northerlies thereby preventing TCs in this period from moving toward the mid-latitude region in East Asia. Instead, anomalous easterlies (anomalous trade wind) were developed in the tropical western Pacific so that a high passage frequency from the Philippine to the south China region along the anomalous steering flows was revealed. The characteristics of the anomalous cold and dry anticyclone developed in the East Asia continent were also confirmed by the analysis of air temperature, relative humidity and sensible heat net flux showing that most regions in East Asia had negative values.