Ki-Jun Park

Synoptic Analysis on the Trend of Northward Movement of Tropical Cyclone with Maximum Intensity

Regarding the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency, TCs between 1999 and 2013 were generated more frequently in the northwest waters of the tropical- and subtropical western North Pacific than TCs between 1977 and 1998. TCs over the period from 1977-1998 showed a northward track trend generated mostly from the distant sea in east of the Philippines via the mainland of the Philippines and the South China Sea to the west toward Indochina or from the distant sea in east of the Philippines to the distance sea in east of Japan. TCS over the period from 1999-2013 showed a northward shift pattern to the mid-latitude region mostly in East Asia. Therefore, TCs over the period from 1999-2013 tended to move to much higher latitudes than TCs over the period from 1977-1998, which also resulted in the high possibility of maximum TC intensity occurred in higher latitudes during the former period than the latter period. In the difference of 500 hPa streamline between two periods, the anomalous anticyclonic circulations were strengthened in whereas the anomalous monsoon trough was placed in north of the South China Sea, which was extended to the east up to . The mid-latitude in East Asia is affected by the anomalous southeasterlies due to the above anomalous anticyclonic circulations and anomalous monsoon trough. The anomalous southeasterlies play a role in anomalous steering flows that directed TCs to the mid-latitude regions in East Asia, which made the latitudes of the maximum intensities in TCs over the period from 1999 - 2013 further to the north than those in TCs over the period from 1977-1998.

A Study of Teleconnection between the South Asian and East Asian Monsoons: Comparison of Summer Monsoon Precipitation of Nepal and South Korea

This study is carried out in order to bridge the gap to understand the relationships between South Asian and East Asian monsoon systems by comparing the summer (June-September) precipitation of Nepal and South Korea. Summer monsoon precipitation data from Nepal and South Korea during 30 years (1981-2010) are used in this research to investigate the association. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are also used to see the nature of large scale phenomena. Statistical applications are used to analyze these data. The analyzed results show that summer monsoon precipitation is higher over Nepal (1513.98 ± 159.29 mm y -1 ) than that of South Korea (907.80 ± 204.71 mm y -1 ) and the wettest period in both the countries is July. However, the coefficient of variation shows that amplitude of interannual variation of summer monsoon over South Korea (22.55%) is larger in comparison to that of Nepal (10.52%). Summer monsoon precipitation of Nepal is found to be significantly correlated to that of South Korea with a correlation coefficient of 0.52 (99% confidence level). Large-scale circulations are studied to further investigate the relationship between the two countries. wind and specific humidity at 850 hPa show a strong westerly from Arabian Sea to BOB and from BOB, wind moves towards Nepal in a northwestward direction during the positive rainfall years. In case of East Asia, strong northward displacement of wind can be observed from Pacific to South Korea and strong anticyclone over the northwestern Pacific Ocean. However, during the negative rainfall years, in the South Asian region we can find weak westerly from the Arabian Sea to BOB, wind is blowing in a southerly direction from Nepal and Bangladesh to BOB.

The Characteristics of the Frequency and Damage for Meteorological Disasters in Korea

In this study, 690 meteorological disasters that are recorded on the Disaster Yearbook from NEMA (the National Emergency Management Agency) from 1979 to 2013 have been analyzed to investigate the frequency and damage and to evaluate the influence of meteorological disasters on the Korean economy. As a result, the total damage has so far reached the 28 trillion won, and 19.7 disasters has been occurred and brought 804 billion won damages on average. 41.9 percent of meteorological disasters have been occurred in the 1980s and 19.3 percent in the 2000s, but the corresponding damage cost was opposite: 11.4 percent in the 1980s and 60.6 percent in the 2000s. This result means meteorological disasters are becoming larger. 45.5 percent of the meteorological disasters have been found in summer season which is intensively affected by heavy rains and typhoons. The Disaster Yearbook from NEMA classifies the cause of meteorological disasters into 31 cases, and most of disasters are a single phenomenon (94.9%) than a complex phenomenon (5.1%). It was confirmed that the meteorological disaster trend has been changed in that heavy rain has appeared consistently every year, and the number of typhoons has been decreased compared to the 1980s. Heavy rain took the highest portion (37.8 percent) of total disasters and followed by typhoons (8.7 percent), but the amount of damages of meteorological disasters is more related to typhoons (45.6 percent) than heavy rains (35.4 percent). Both of them accounts for 81 percent of the total damage. Therefore, it is necessary to build intensive prevention measures for two phenomena. The highest loss, approximately 0.9% of GDP, was taken place in 1987. Categorically, typhoon RUSA brought 0.68 percent of GDP loss in 2002 and heavy rains caused 0.45 percent of GDP loss in 1987. This result means that if a high impact meteorological disaster occurs, the ripple effect is enormous as socioeconomic.

The effect of temperature on the electricity demand: An empirical investigation

This paper attempts to estimate the electricity demand function in Korea with quarterly data of average temperature, GDP and electricity price over the period 2005-2013. We apply lagged dependent variable model and ordinary least square method as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the electricity demand function. The results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the electricity demand are estimated to be -0.569 and 0.631, respectively. They are statistically significant at the 1% level. Moreover, long-run income and price elasticities are estimated to be 1.589 and –1.433, respectively Both of results reveal that the demand for electricity is priceand income-elastic in the long-run. The relationship between electricity consumption and temperature is supported by many of references as a U-shaped relationship, and the base temperature of electricity demand is about 15.2°C. It is shown that power of explanation and goodness-of-fit statistics are improved in the use of the lagged dependent variable model rather than conventional model.

Possible Influence of Western North Pacific Monsoon on Tropical Cyclone Activity Around Korea

In this study, the correlation between the frequency of summer tropical cyclones (TC) affecting areas around Korea over the last 37 years and the western North Pacific monsoon index (WNPMI) was analyzed. A clear positive correlation existed between the two variables, and this high positive correlation remained unchanged even when excluding El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. To investigate the causes of the positive correlation between these two variables, ENSO years were excluded, after which the 8 years with the highest WNPMI (positive WNPMI phase) and the 8 years with the lowest WNPMI (negative WNPMI phase) were selected, and the average difference between the two phases was analyzed. In the positive WNPMI phase, TCs usually occurred in the eastern waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, and tended to pass the East China Sea on their way north toward Korea and Japan. In the negative WNPMI phase, TCs usually occurred in the western waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, and tended to pass the South China Sea on their way west toward the southeastern Chinese coast and the Indochina peninsula. Therefore, TC intensity was higher in the positive WNPMI phase, during which TCs are able to gain sufficient energy from the sea while moving a long distance to areas nearby Korea. TCs also tended to occur more often in the positive WNPMI phase. In the difference between the two phases regarding 850 and 500 hPa streamline, anomalous cyclones were reinforced in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, while anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in mid-latitude East Asian areas. Due to these two anomalous pressure systems, anomalous southeasterlies developed in areas near Korea, with these anomalous southeasterlies playing the role of anomalous steering flows making the TCs head toward areas near Korea. Also, due to the anomalous cyclones developed in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, more TCs could occur in the positive WNPMI phase.

Features of Korean Rainfall Variability by Western Pacific Teleconnection Pattern

This study analyzes the correlation between Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern index (WPI) in April during 1954-2008 and rainfall amounts in the same month. Based on the results, it is identified that there have been strong positive correlations between central China, Korea and the southwestern part of Japan in the East Asian region. Through differences between 10 positive WP years and 10 negative WP years selected from the April WPI excluding ENSO years, it is found that rainfall amounts increase in April of positive WP years due to the following characteristics. Increases in rainfall amounts are evident in the East Asian middle latitudinal region where the positive correlation between the two variables is the highest and this is because anomalous southwesterlies are strengthened in the East Asian middle latitudinal region due to the spatial pattern of a south-low-north-high anomalous pressure system centered on this region that is made by anomalous anticyclones centered on the southeastern side of the region and other anomalous anticyclones centered on the northeastern side of the region. In addition, anomalous westerlies (jet) are strengthen in the upper troposphere of the East Asian middle latitudinal region and as a result, anomalous upward flows are strengthened in this region and thus anomalous warm air temperatures are formed in the entire level of the troposphere in the region. In addition to atmospheric environments, anomalous warm sea surface temperatures are formed in the seas in the East Asian middle latitudinal region to help the rainfall amount increases in the East Asian middle latitudinal region.

Deceasing Trend of Summertime TC Frequency in Japan

This study analyzed the climate regime shift using statistical change-point analysis on the time-series tropical cyclone (TC) frequency that affected Japan in July to September. The result showed that there was a significant change in 1995 and since then, it showed a trend of rapidly decreasing frequency. To determine the reason for this, differences between 1995 to 2012 (9512) period and 1978 to 1994 (7894) period were analayzed. First, regarding TC genesis, TCs during the 9512 period showed a characteristic of genesis from the southeast quadrant of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific and TCs during the 7894 period showed their genesis from the northwest quadrant. Regarding a TC track, TCs in the 7894 period had a strong trend of moving from the far east sea of the Philippines via the East China Sea to the mid-latitude region in East Asia while TCs in the 9512 period showed a trend of moving from the Philippines toward the southern part of China westward. Thus, TC intensity in the 7894 period, which can absorb sufficient energy from the sea as they moved a long distance over the sea, was stronger than that of 9512. Large-scale environments were analyzed to determine the cause of such difference in TC activity occurred between two periods. During the 9512 period, anomalous cold and dry anticyclones were developed strongly in the East Asia continent. As a result, Korea and Japan were affected by the anomalous northerlies thereby preventing TCs in this period from moving toward the mid-latitude region in East Asia. Instead, anomalous easterlies (anomalous trade wind) were developed in the tropical western Pacific so that a high passage frequency from the Philippine to the south China region along the anomalous steering flows was revealed. The characteristics of the anomalous cold and dry anticyclone developed in the East Asia continent were also confirmed by the analysis of air temperature, relative humidity and sensible heat net flux showing that most regions in East Asia had negative values.

Relationship of South China Sea summer monsoon with ENSO

Abstract This study analyzed a correlation between South China Sea summer (June to September) monsoon (SCSSM) and the ENSO for the last 32 years (1979 to 2010). There was a correlation that the higher (lower) the SST in the Nino-3.4 region was, the weaker (stronger) the SCSSM intensity was. To identify the reason for this correlation, a difference of means between 8 El Nino years and 8 La Nina years (June to September).The analysis on the difference between two groups with respect to the 850 hPa stream flows showed that there were anomalous huge cyclones in the subtropical Pacific in the both hemispheres so that cold and dry anomalous northerlies were strengthened in the South China Sea relatively while anomalous westerlies were strengthened from the Maritime Continent to the off the coast of Chile. The analysis on the difference between two groups with respect to the 200 hPa stream flows showed that the opposite anomalous pressure system pattern to that in the 850 hPa stream flows were shown. In the subtropical Pacific of the both hemispheres, anomalous anticyclones existed so that anomalous easterlies were strengthened from the Maritime Continent to the equatorial central Pacific. Considering the anomalous atmospheric circulations in the upper and lower layers of the troposphere, upward airflows from the equatorial central and eastern Pacific were downward in the South China Sea and the Maritime Continent, which was a structure of anomalous atmospheric circulations. This means that the Walker Circulation was weakened and it was a typical structure of atmospheric circulations revealed in El Nino years.