Jerald R. Ziemke

The global structure of upper troposphere‐lower stratosphere ozone in GEOS‐5: A multiyear assimilation of EOS Aura data

Eight years of ozone measurements retrieved from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument and the Microwave Limb Sounder, both on the EOS Aura satellite, have been assimilated into the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. This study evaluates this assimilated product, highlighting its potential for science. The impact of observations on the GEOS-5 system is explored by examining the spatial distribution of the observation-minus-forecast statistics. Independent data are used for product validation. The correlation of the lower stratospheric (the tropopause to 50u2009hPa) ozone column with ozonesondes is 0.99 and the (high) bias is 0.5%, indicating the success of the assimilation in reproducing the ozone variability in that layer. The upper tropospheric (500u2009hPa to the tropopause) assimilated ozone column is about 10% lower than the ozonesonde column, but the correlation is still high (0.87). The assimilation is shown to realistically capture the sharp cross-tropopause gradient in ozone mixing ratio. Occurrence of transport-driven low ozone laminae in the assimilation system is similar to that obtained from the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) above the 400u2009K potential temperature surface, but the assimilation produces fewer laminae than seen by HIRDLS below that surface. Although the assimilation produces about 25% fewer occurrences per day during the 3u2009years of HIRDLS data, the interannual variability is captured correctly. This data-driven assimilated product is complementary to ozone fields generated from chemistry and transport models. Applications include study of the radiative forcing by ozone and tracer transport near the tropopause.

Aerosol indirect effect on tropospheric ozone via lightning

[1]xa0Tropospheric ozone (O3) is a pollutant and major greenhouse gas and its radiative forcing is still uncertain. Inadequate understanding of processes related to O3 production, in particular those natural ones such as lightning, contributes to this uncertainty. Here we demonstrate a new effect of aerosol particles on O3production by affecting lightning activity and lightning-generated NOx (LNOx). We find that lightning flash rate increases at a remarkable rate of 30 times or more per unit of aerosol optical depth. We provide observational evidence that indicates the observed increase in lightning activity is caused by the influx of aerosols from a volcano. Satellite data analyses show O3is increased as a result of aerosol-induced increase in lightning and LNOx, which is supported by modle simulations with prescribed lightning change. O3production increase from this aerosol-lightning-ozone link is concentrated in the upper troposphere, where O3 is most efficient as a greenhouse gas. In the face of anthropogenic aerosol increase our findings suggest that lightning activity, LNOx and O3, especially in the upper troposphere, have all increased substantially since preindustrial time due to the proposed aerosol-lightning-ozone link, which implies a stronger O3 historical radiative forcing. Aerosol forcing therefore has a warming component via its effect on O3 production and this component has mostly been ignored in previous studies of climate forcing related to O3and aerosols. Sensitivity simulations suggest that 4–8% increase of column tropospheric ozone, mainly in the tropics, is expected if aerosol-lighting-ozone link is parameterized, depending on the background emission scenario. We note, however, substantial uncertainties remain on the exact magnitude of aerosol effect on tropospheric O3 via lightning. The challenges for obtaining a quantitative global estimate of this effect are also discussed. Our results have significant implications for understanding past and projecting future tropospheric O3forcing as well as wildfire changes and call for integrated investigations of the coupled aerosol-cloud-chemistry system.

The effect of representing bromine from VSLS on the simulation and evolution of Antarctic ozone

We use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM), a contributor to both the 2010 and 2014 WMO Ozone Assessment Reports, to show that inclusion of 5 parts per trillion (ppt) of stratospheric bromine (Bry) from very short-lived substances (VSLS) is responsible for about a decade delay in ozone hole recovery. These results partially explain the significantly later recovery of Antarctic ozone noted in the 2014 report, as bromine from VSLS was not included in the 2010 Assessment. We show multiple lines of evidence that simulations that account for VSLS Bry are in better agreement with both total column BrO and the seasonal evolution of Antarctic ozone reported by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASAs Aura satellite. In addition, the near zero ozone levels observed in the deep Antarctic lower stratospheric polar vortex are only reproduced in a simulation that includes this Bry source from VSLS.

A total ozone-dependent ozone profile climatology based on ozonesondes and Aura MLS data

Ozone profiles measured with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and ozonesondes are used to create a new ozone climatology that can be used for satellite retrievals and radiative transfer studies. The climatology is binned according to total column ozone amount and latitude rather than with season. Because of high correlation between ozone profile shape and total ozone, the ozone profiles in this climatology capture ozone variations well, especially near the tropopause. This climatology has been constructed from nearly a million individual MLS ozone profile measurements taken between 2004 and 2013 as well as over 55,000 ozonesonde measurements from 1988 to 2011. The MLS profiles were sorted by total column ozone as measured by Ozone Monitoring Instrument in observations that were coincident with the MLS measurements. The data from the sondes were used in the troposphere and lower stratosphere and MLS in the middle and upper stratosphere. These two data sets were blended together between 13 and 17u2009km (~159–88u2009hPa). This climatology consists of average ozone profiles as a function of total ozone for six 30° latitude bands covering altitudes between 0 and 75u2009km (in Z* pressure altitude coordinates) as well as the corresponding standard deviations for each layer. There is no seasonal component. This new climatology shows some remarkable and somewhat unexpected correlations between the total column ozone and the ozone amount at some layers, particularly in the lower and middle troposphere in some latitude bands.

Recent Decline in Extratropical Lower Stratospheric Ozone Attributed to Circulation Changes

1998-2016 ozone trends in the lower stratosphere (LS) are examined using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) and related NASA products. After removing biases resulting from step-changes in the MERRA-2 ozone observations, a discernible negative trend of -1.67±0.54 Dobson units per decade (DU/decade) is found in the 10-km layer above the tropopause between 20°N and 60°N. A weaker but statistically significant trend of -1.17±0.33 DU/decade exists between 50°S and 20°S. In the Tropics, a positive trend is seen in a 5-km layer above the tropopause. Analysis of an idealized tracer in a model simulation constrained by MERRA-2 meteorological fields provides strong evidence that these trends are driven by enhanced isentropic transport between the tropical (20°S-20°N) and extratropical LS in the past two decades. This is the first time that a reanalysis dataset has been used to detect and attribute trends in lower stratospheric ozone.

A Model and Satellite-Based Analysis of the Tropospheric Ozone Distribution in Clear versus Convectively Cloudy Conditions

Satellite observations of in-cloud ozone concentrations from the OMI and MLS instruments show substantial differences from background ozone concentrations. We develop a method for comparing a free-running chemistry-climate model (CCM) to in-cloud and background ozone observations using a simple criterion based on cloud fraction to separate cloudy and clear-sky days. We demonstrate that the CCM simulates key features of the in-cloud versus background ozone differences and of the geographic distribution of in-cloud ozone. Since the agreement is not dependent on matching the meteorological conditions of a specific day, this is a promising method for diagnosing how accurately CCMs represent the relationships between ozone and clouds, including the lower ozone concentrations shown by in-cloud satellite observations. Since clouds are associated with convection as well as changes in chemistry, we diagnose the tendency of tropical ozone at 400 hPa due to chemistry, convection and turbulence, and large-scale dynamics. While convection acts to reduce ozone concentrations at 400 hPa throughout much of the tropics, it has the opposite effect over highly polluted regions of South and East Asia.

Simulation of stratospheric ozone in global forecast model using linear photochemistry parameterization

The two types of ozone, the simulation with interactive (prognostic) ozone using linear photochemistry parameterization (LPP) (INTR) and the simulation with non-interactive ozone using ozone climatology (CLIM), were used in the global forecast model. These two types of ozone were compared with ozone observations from the Aura Microwave Lim Sounder (MLS) and ozonesondes from 16-30 September 2008. The INTR is sensitive to LPP schemes while less sensitive to the time average of initial ozone data. Among three LPP schemes, CARIOLLE, COPCAT, and LINOZ, the COPCAT produces ozone profiles with least differences from MLS and ozonesondes. CLIM overestimates MLS at 200-20 hPa while INTR with COPCAT scheme underestimates MLS ozone above 5 hPa. Over the Antarctic in the lower stratosphere CLIM overestimates MLS and ozonesondes whereas INTR underestimates MLS but overestimates the ozonesonde data. Thus, COPCAT agrees better with ozonesonde data than any other LPP schemes and CLIM. Changing the ozone distribution from CLIM to INTR affects temperature profiles mainly through the modification of differential radiative fluxes. The correlations between ozone, differential radiative fluxes, and temperature are distinguished by altitude (or pressure levels). The correlations are strong or moderate between 3-1000 hPa (lower atmosphere) and weak above 3 hPa (upper atmosphere). This study demonstrates that the simulation of ozone using an appropriate LPP scheme is excellent in overcoming the drawbacks of using climatological ozone profiles that poorly agree with observations in extreme ozone hole events.