Jeremy Atack

Did Railroads Induce or Follow Economic Growth?: Urbanization and Population Growth in the American Midwest, 1850–1860

Using a newly developed geographic information system transportation database, we study the impact of gaining access to rail transportation on changes in population density and the rate of urbanization between 1850 and 1860 in the American Midwest. Differences-in-differences and instrumental variable analysis of a balanced panel of 278 counties reveals only a small positive effect of rail access on population density but a large positive impact on urbanization as measured by the fraction of people living in incorporated areas of 2,500 or more. Our estimates imply that one-half or more of the growth in urbanization in the Midwest in the late antebellum period may be attributable to the spread of the rail network.

“Location, Location, Location!” The Price Gradient for Vacant Urban Land: New York, 1835 to 1900

We preview new archival evidence on the price of vacant land in New York City between 1835 and 1900. Before the Civil War, the price of land per square foot fell steeply with distance from New Yorks City Hall located in the central business district (CBD). After the Civil War, the distance gradient flattened and the fit of a simple regression of the log of land price per square foot on distance from the CBD declined markedly. Our most remarkable finding is that average nominal land prices at the CBD increased at an average annual rate of over 3% per year between 1835 and 1895, growing particularly rapidly around the time of the Civil War before declining as the century came to an end.

The Regional Diffusion and Adoption of the Steam Engine in American Manufacturing

In spite of the importance accorded the steam engine during nineteenth-century industrialization, little is known about its rate of diffusion and the determinants thereof in the United States. The primary purpose of this paper is to enhance our knowledge about the spread of this technology. New evidence on steam power use in 1820, 1850, and 1860, combined with published census data from 1870, permits quantitative estimates of the regional variations in timing, pace, and extent of usage before 1900. Second, we advance reasonable conjectures for the regional differences that appear. Although lack of evidence precludes a definitive delineation of causality, with simulation techniques we are able to use the limited evidence available on costs to reconcile, albeit imperfectly, the historical pattern with economic-theoretic predictions regarding the process of innovation.

Egalitarianism, Inequality, and Age: The Rural North in 1860

Little is known about the distribution of wealth in the allegedly egalitarian society of the rural North on the eve of the Civil War. This paper investigates the role of the age structure of the heads of household and a life-cycle pattern of accumulation in determining the wealth distribution within that society and among the various groups that comprised it. The results suggest a need for caution in making cross-group or inter-temporal comparisons in wealth distributions without taking account of such factors.

How Long Was the Workday in 1880

We know remarkably little about the length of the working day before the 1880s. In this paper, we summarize what is known about the trend in the length of the workday in American manufacturing industry from 1830 to 1890. We than develop estimates of the daily hours of work and form the basis for our on-going research into the performance and operation of the industrial labor market in America in the late nineteenth century. We conclude on the basis of our firm-level sample data that the average workday in American manufacturing industry in 1880 was almost exactly ten hours, placing the attainment of the ten-hour day almost a decade earlier than hitherto supposed. Despite the decline in hours to 1880, however, daily hours of work were still long enough that they would have required the use of artificial light in most factories during the winter. Our statistical analysis also reveals and documents small but statistically variations in hours between firms and industries and between regions and by location.

The measurement and trend of inequality : An amendment to a basic revision

Abstract A variety of revisions and adjustments to our standard measures of inequality have been proposed in recent years. This note corrects a serious error in that work which could reverse conclusions in instances of great inequality.

Productivity in Manufacturing and the Length of the Working Day: Evidence from the 1880 Census of Manufactures

Data from the manuscript census of manufacturing are used to estimate the effects of the length of the working day on output and wages. We find that the elasticity of output with respect to daily hours worked was positive but less than one—implying diminishing returns to increases in working hours. When the annual number of days worked is held constant, the average annual wage is found to be positively related to daily hours worked, but again the elasticity less than 1.0. At the modal value of daily hours (ten hours per day), it appears that from the standpoint of employers, the marginal benefits of a shorter working day (a lower wage bill) were approximately offset by the marginal cost (lower output).

Firm Size and Industrial Structure in the United States During the Nineteenth Century

This paper investigates the impact of the emergence of large-scale enterprises on industrial structure in America in the mid-nineteenth century and concludes that their impact was ambiguous. In cottons and irons, average scale increased dramatically, but inequality in the size distribution of plants declined and economic concentration showed no clear trend. In other industries, changes in average scale were much smaller and inequality increased, but again there was no clear trend in concentration.

Fact in fiction? The relative costs of steam and water power: a simulation approach

Over the past decade or so, simulation modeling has become commonplace in the analysis of economic problems, where it can perform a number of important roles such as supplementing otherwise inadequate data, avoiding the difficulty of formulating a mathematical model to describe the behavior of a complex system, and predicting behavior or validating the model by facilitating statistical testing (Naylor, 1966). Economic historians, including cliometricians, however, have largely ignored this development despite the clear applicability of the method to historical analysis. This paper introduces a simulation model of wide applicability and demonstrates the power of simulation methods to illuminate difficult and complex historical problems. The simulation technique is applied to the analysis of historical, risky capital investments. Specifically, we are concerned with steam power and waterpower, in an attempt to determine the extent to which the relative costs of steam power and waterpower may have determined the rate at which steam power was adopted by manufacturing industry in America during the 19th century. This is part of a larger study into technological changes during the 19th and early 20th centuries. 1

On the Use of Geographic Information Systems in Economic History: The American Transportation Revolution Revisited

Transportation improvements in the nineteenth century loom large in the historiography of the profession during the twentieth century. This article describes the ongoing construction of a historical geographic information systems (GIS) transportation database designed to provide new insights into the impact of the transportation and communications revolution in the continental United States by providing evidence on the spatial dimensions of those changes over time. It also reviews some preliminary findings and reinterpretations based upon these data.