Michael R. Haines

Did Railroads Induce or Follow Economic Growth?: Urbanization and Population Growth in the American Midwest, 1850–1860

Using a newly developed geographic information system transportation database, we study the impact of gaining access to rail transportation on changes in population density and the rate of urbanization between 1850 and 1860 in the American Midwest. Differences-in-differences and instrumental variable analysis of a balanced panel of 278 counties reveals only a small positive effect of rail access on population density but a large positive impact on urbanization as measured by the fraction of people living in incorporated areas of 2,500 or more. Our estimates imply that one-half or more of the growth in urbanization in the Midwest in the late antebellum period may be attributable to the spread of the rail network.

Estimated Life Tables for the United States, 1850-1900

This article presents a series of abridged life tables derived from earlier work by the author and Samuel H. Preston.... These tables provide a superior picture of the mortality situation in the United States from 1850 to 1910. In addition these tables can be of assistance in the following ways: estimating own-children fertility and census-survival migration calculating probabilities for finding certain family structures in the census and making estimates of working life. (EXCERPT)

Differential infant and child mortality in Costa Rica: 1968–1973

Abstract In this paper the authors attempt to analyse the correlates of differences in infant and child mortality in Costa Rica for the period 1968–73. One approach uses small geographical units (cantons) as the unit for multivariate analysis, employing both single and simultaneous equation models. A second multivariate approach uses individual level statistics along with a specially constructed dependent variable. Costa Rica is studied because of an interest in differential child mortality during rapid fertility decline. The period is related to the use of the Census of 1973 as a primary source of data. Among the major findings are a strong favourable effect of provision of medical services on child mortality for small geographical areas and a strong effect of ambient infant mortality (influenced by medical and public health factors) on childhood mortality in the micro-analysis. Education of women remains important at both levels of analysis. Sanitation and level of socio-economic well-being have a weake...

Socio-economic Differentials in Infant and Child Mortality during Mortality Decline: England and Wales, 1890–1911

In this paper data from the 1911 Census of the Fertility of Marriage of England and Wales are used to study patterns of mortality decline by socio-economic characteristics, principally the occupation of husband. That census reported data on number of wives, children ever born, and children dead by marriage-duration cohorts for 190 non-overlapping occupations of husband. These results, along with those on number of rooms in the dwelling of the family are used to make indirect estimates of childhood mortality using the techniques described in United Nations, Manual X. These procedures produce values of q(a), the probability of dying before reaching some exact age ‘a’. Estimates for q(2), q(3), q(5), q(10), q(15), and q(20) are derived from data on women married 0–4, 5–9, 10–14, 15–19, 20–24, and 25–29 years, respectively. These estimates can also be dated to a point in the past. These values can also be converted to a corresponding level of a Model West life table, which describes the ‘average’ mortality re...

Growing Incomes, Shrinking People—Can Economic Development Be Hazardous to Your Health?

This article examines declining adult human stature in the nineteenth century in three countries: the United States, England, and the Netherlands. While this was not unprecedented, these three relatively important nations did experience a deterioration in the biological standard of living at a time when economic development was proceeding at a goodly pace. England and the Netherlands were among the most urbanized countries in Europe at the time, while the United States was still predominantly rural and agrarian. The essay argues that a confluence of circumstances contributed to the worsening of the physical condition of these populations even while real income per capita was growing. Among the factors involved were rapid urbanization without adequate public health and sanitation; a transport revolution and related commercialization, which brought people and goods into much closer contact; the consequent integration of disease environments, both within and across nations; and a growing dependence of the working populations on wage income along with a probable growing inequality in wealth and income, exacerbating the impact of fluctuations in food prices. Technological change had an impact on these events by lowering the relative prices of industrial goods. While the term Malthusian crisis (i.e., a shortage of subsistence followed by a rise in mortality) seems inappropriate in these cases, a similar process may have been taking place. It suggests that such a crisis may not commence with an increase in mortality but rather with an adjustment of the human organism to new nutritional circumstances.

American fertility in transition: New estimates of birth rates in the United States, 1900–1910

This article presents new estimates of age-specific overall and marital fertility rates for the entire United States for the period 1900‐1910. The estimation techniques are the two-census parity increment method and the own-children method. The data sources are the 1900 census public use sample and tabulations of 1910 census fertility data published with the 1940 census. Estimates are made for the total population, whites, native-born whites, foreign-born whites, and blacks. Low age-specific marital fertility at younger ages is consistent with a view of a distinctive American fertility pattern at this time.

Social Class Differentials During Fertility Decline: England and Wales Revisited

Fertility differentials during fertility decline can shed light on the process of fertility transition. Differentials across occupational or socio-economic groups have been studied for England and Wales to examine the pace of the adoption of fertility control across groups. Occupation of husband was used to create social-class aggregates. The conclusion has been that ‘higher’ social-class or status groups led the decline, while ‘lower’ social-class or status groups lagged, although not by many years. The use of occupational aggregations to create social classes, especially the eight social classes developed by T. H. C. Stevenson for the Census of 1911, has been criticized. This paper provides a re-analysis of the 1911 Census of Marriage and Fertility of England and Wales, using alternative aggregations and other measures of socio-economic well-being. It finds that these retrospective data seem quite usable for this task, and that alternative re-aggregations from the detailed occupational data in the Censu...

The Use of the Census to Estimate Childhood Mortality: Comparisons fromthe 1900 and 1910 United States Census Public Use Samples

This paper estimates child mortality by race and nativity for the U.S. as a whole and the Death Registration Area based on the public use micro- samples of the 1900 and 1910 censuses. We compare indirect estimates to mortality rates and parameters based on published census and vital statistics data. The censuses of 1900 and 1910 both asked adult women about children ever born and children surviving which, when tabulated by age or marriage duration can be used to estimate probabilities of their children dying at various ages up to 25. Data on children ever born for 1910 were partially tabulated and published in conjunction with the 1940 federal census but the information on children surviving was never tabulated and published; nor was information from 1900. The public use micro samples of the 1900 census permit the application of these well-established indirect methods. This paper applies the basic indirect age and marriage duration methods, and a method using the backward projection of age distribution of surviving own-children of younger adult women. The results match well to life tables calculated from aggregaed census and vital statistics for the total white, native white and foreign-born white populations. The results are less definite for African-Americans but it seems that mortality was substantialy better than indicated by the widely cited Glover life tables for 1900/02, 1901/10, and 1909/11 for the original the original Death Registration Area of 1900. Overall, however, it appears that calculated life tables from published vital statistics and census popula- tions for the Death Registration Areas of 1900 and 1910 describe the remainder of the population relatively well.

Western fertility in mid-transition: fertility and nuptiality in the United States and selected nations at the turn of the century.

The demographic transition in Western nations did not take place in a uniform manner. Particular exceptions were the United States and France. New data sources and recent developments in estimation techniques have made possible estimates of age-specific overall and marital fertility rates for the United States at the turn of the century. Both the two census parity-increment method and own-children methods were applied to the public use sample of the 1900 census and to the special sample of the 1910 census taken and analyzed in conjunction with the 1940 census. New estimates of age-specific fertility were made for the periods 1900-1910 and 1905-1910 for the whole United States and for whites, native whites, foreign-born whites, and blacks. Notable was the low maritalfertility among young American women (that is, those aged 20-29). Comparisons to datafor selected European countries from this period suggest that this was uncommon, except in France. Measures offemale nuptiality also reveal that the United States had earlier and more extensive marriage, again similar to France and unlike other Western European nations. The peculiar nature of both marital fertility and nuptiality in both the United States and France at the turn of the century is likely related to the extended period over which both nations experienced fertility declines during the nineteenth century.

Can breast feeding help you in later life? Evidence from German military heights in the early 20th century.

Considerable literature exists on the benefits of breast feeding on the health and survival of infants and young children, but there is less on the effects on later life outcomes. One such measure of health and well-being that has received attention in the historical literature is terminal adult stature. Information on height is rather widely available; however, it is much more difficult to obtain data on breast feeding. One country that does have such information is Imperial Germany (1871-1919). A number of physicians and local health officials collected information on the incidence and duration of breast feeding early in the 20th century, particularly because of concern about the unusually high infant mortality rates in parts of Germany. Hallie Kintner has surveyed the published results of these studies. The information on the prevalence of breast feeding for the period 1903/10 has been inputed into a database of demographic and economic variables for the counties (Regierungsbezirke) of Germany (1850-1939). There are also published data on heights of military recruits from the Imperial German military forces in 1906. These can be linked to areas in the database and related to breast feeding practices and infant mortality both contemporaneously and approximately 20 years previous to 1906. Results indicate a significant effect of infant feeding practices on later life outcomes operating through infant health conditions, proxied by the infant mortality rate.