Jeremy G. Moulton

War and Marriage: Assortative Mating and the World War II GI Bill

World War II and its subsequent GI Bill have been widely credited with playing a transformative role in American society, but there have been few quantitative analyses of these historical events’ broad social effects. We exploit between-cohort variation in the probability of military service to investigate how WWII and the GI Bill altered the structure of marriage, and find that it had important spillover effects beyond its direct effect on men’s educational attainment. Our results suggest that the additional education received by returning veterans caused them to “sort” into wives with significantly higher levels of education. This suggests an important mechanism by which socioeconomic status may be passed on to the next generation.

The Impact of Medicare Part D on Self-Employment:

We explore the relationship between access to affordable health insurance and self-employment using exogenous variation from the introduction of Medicare Part D that reduced the out-of-pocket cost of prescription drugs and improved health outcomes in a difference-in-differences model using the American Community Survey. We find that our treatment group of individuals aged 65–69 were 0.5 percentage points (or 5%) more likely to be self-employed in relation to a control group aged 60–64.

Early claiming of higher-earning husbands, the survivor benefit, and the incidence of poverty among recent widows

Social Security provides survivor benefits to lower-earning spouses of deceased workers entitled to a retirement benefit. The value of the survivor benefit depends on a number of factors including the deceased workers claim age. We use the Health and Retirement Study and a discrete time hazard model to analyze how the claim age of married men influences the likelihood that their spouse will enter poverty in widowhood. We find that delayed claiming is associated with reduction in a widows poverty risk. The magnitude of this relationship varies significantly with the claim age, Social Security dependence, and survivor benefit dependence.

The Great Depression of Income: Historical Estimates of the Longer-Run Impact of Entering the Labor Market during a Recession

Abstract In this paper, I estimate the longer-run impact of variation in labor market entry conditions, driven by the Great Depression, on income and other labor outcomes in the 1940 Census. I use a regression discontinuity research design and find that 10 years after entry, less educated men entering the labor market at the beginning of the Great Depression earned 8.6 % less than those entering just one year prior. I find that the effect is larger (14.7 %) for those born in states more negatively affected by the Great Depression and close to zero for those born in states relatively less affected. The results indicate that the Great Depression had a persistent, negative impact on less-educated entrants that is not significantly different from that experienced by unlucky entrants of modern recessions.

The spillover effect of midwife attrition from the Nigerian midwives service scheme

BackgroundThe Nigerian Midwives Service Scheme (MSS) increased use of antenatal services at rural public sector clinics. However, it is unclear if women who would not have otherwise sought care, or those who would have sought care in rural private sector clinics caused this change. Additionally, it is also unclear if the reported midwife attrition was associated with a spillover of the scheme’s effect on urban areas. We sought to answer these two questions using data from two nationally representative surveys.MethodsWe used an interrupted time series model to assess trends in the use of obstetric (i.e. antenatal and delivery) services among rural and urban respondents in the 2008 and 2013 Nigerian demographic and health surveys.ResultsWe found that the MSS led to a 5-percentage point increase in the use of antenatal services at rural public sector clinics, corroborating findings from a previous study. This change was driven by women who would not have sought care otherwise. We also found that there was a 4-percentage point increase in the use of delivery services at urban public sector clinics, and a concurrent 4-percentage point decrease in urban home deliveries. These changes are most likely explained by midwives’ attrition and exemplify a spillover of the scheme’s effect.ConclusionMidwife attrition from the Nigerian MSS was associated with a spillover of the scheme’s effect on the use of delivery services, on urban areas.

Who Benefits from Targeted Property Tax Relief? Evidence from Virginia Elections

This study examines the market impact of targeted property tax relief, which is critical for understanding who exactly benefits from a widely used local policy. Specifically, we investigate this in the context of two statewide ballot measures in Virginia that provided property tax relief or heightened expectations for future relief intended to aid disabled veterans and seniors, respectively. Using residential multiple listing service microdata from Virginia, results from a regression discontinuity analysis show that once the 2010 tax relief measures passed on Election Day, property values rose sharply in response to the sudden increase in demand for homeownership among the targeted groups. We find that senior preferred housing and properties within areas with higher proportions of seniors and veterans experienced the highest price appreciation, while areas with fewer veterans or seniors saw little impact. The findings suggest that this type of policy provides an immediate benefit to current homeowners, thereby offsetting benefits for subsequent homeowners within the targeted groups. This effect represents an unintended consequence of targeted property tax relief as a policy tool more generally, as immediate capitalization into home prices subsequently increases the cost of housing for many individuals the relief was intended to help.

Can “Some College” Help Reduce Future Earnings Inequality?

This article addresses the policy debate over “college for all” versus “college for some” in the United States and analyzes the relationship between “some college” (as a formal education attainment category) and earnings. Our evidence confirms—using data from the American Community Survey (ACS), the Panel Study on Income Dynamics (PSID), and the Survey on Income and Program Participation (SIPP)—that more (postsecondary) education, on average, is associated with higher median earnings. However, there is emerging evidence that a proportion of workers who have attained lower levels of education (i.e., “some college”) earn more than those who have attained higher levels of education (bachelors degree). We focus particular attention on the subset of Americans who fall into the U.S. Census official category entitled “some college.” This is a heterogeneous group who have alternate educational credentials but who have not acquired a formal associate or bachelors degree. Instead of an unequivocal focus on “college for all” or even “community college for all,” we argue that educators and policymakers should consider “some college” as a viable pathway to future labor market success. In sum, we conclude that some types of “some college” could lead to a reduction in earnings inequality.