Jeronimo Zettelmeyer

The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies; Explaining the Differences

What are the relative roles of macroeconomic variables, structural policies, and initial conditions in explaining the time path of output in transition and the large observed differences in output performance across transition economics? Using a sample of 26 countries, this paper follows a general-to-specific modeling approach that allows for differential effects of policies and initial conditions on the private and state sectors and for time-dependent effects of initial conditions. While showing some fragility to model specification, the results point to the preeminence of structural reforms over both initial conditions and macroeconomic variables in explaining cross-country differences in performance and the timing of the recovery.

Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?

We estimate equilibrium dollar wages for 15 transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the former Soviet Union. Equilibrium dollar wages are interpreted as full employment wages consistent with a countrys physical and human capital endowment, and estimated by regressing actual dollar wages on productivity and human capital proxies in a short (1990-95) panel of 85 countries. The main results are: (1) equilibrium dollar wages have appreciated steadily in the Baltic countries and fast-reforming CEE transition economies, but have been flat in most CIS countries; and (2) 1996 actual dollar wages remain below estimated equilibrium dollar wages for most but not all transition countries covered.

Sovereign Debt Structure for Crisis Prevention

The debate on government debt in the context of possible reforms of the international financial architecture has thus far focused on crisis resolution. This paper seeks to broaden this debate. It asks how government debt could be structured to pursue other objectives, including crisis prevention, international risk-sharing, and facilitating the adjustment of fiscal variables to changes in domestic economic conditions. To that end, the paper considers recently developed analytical approaches to improving sovereign debt structure using existing instruments, and reviews a number of proposals--including the introduction of explicit seniority and GDP-linked instruments--in the sovereign context.

Monetary independence in emerging markets : does the exchange rate regime make a difference?

This paper compares the impact of shocks to U.S. interest rates and emerging market bond spreads on domestic interest rates and exchange rates across several emerging market economies with different exchange rate regimes. Consistent with conventional priors, the results indicate that interest rates in Hong Kong react much more to U.S. interest rate shocks and shocks to international risk premia than interest rates in Singapore. The results are less clearcut in the comparison of Argentina and Mexico: while interest rates (and the exchange rate) in Mexico seem to react less to U.S. interest rate shocks, they react about the same to bond spread shocks, in addition to a significant impact on the exchange rate.

The Uzbek Growth Puzzle

After the breakup of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistans output fell less than in any other former Soviet republic, and growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the countrys hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this record has surprised many observers. This paper first shows that a standard panel model of growth in transition systematically underpredicts Uzbek growth from 1992-1996, confirming the view that Uzbekistans performance constitutes a puzzle. It then attempts to resolve the puzzle by extending the model in a way that encompasses competing hypotheses of what makes Uzbekistans output path unusual. The main result is that Uzbekistans performance can be accounted for by a combination of low initial industrialization, its cotton production, and its self-sufficiency in energy.

Growth and Reforms in Latin America: A Survey of Facts and Arguments

This paper presents a number of facts about growth in Latin America, and shows how critical correlates of growth have evolved over time. In comparison with other regions, Latin America has consistently exhibited higher macroeconomic volatility, lower openness, and higher income inequality, though openness and macroeconomic stability have improved since the early 1990s. The paper then discusses three views of why reforms have not led to higher growth in Latin America: that reforms have gone too far; that reforms have not gone far enough; and that reforms have missed the point.

How Private Creditors Fared in Emerging Debt Markets, 1970-2000

We estimate ex post returns to emerging market debt by combining secondary-market prices with observed flows based on World Bank data. From 1970-2000, returns averaged 9 percent per annum, about the same as returns on a ten-year U.S. treasury bond. This reflects the combined effect of the 1980s debt crisis and much higher returns during 1989-2000. Annual returns since 1986 have been less volatile than emerging market equity returns but more volatile than returns on U.S. corporate or high-yield bonds. However, unlike returns on these bonds, emerging market debt returns do not seem significantly correlated with U.S. or world stock markets.

Early Ideas on Sovereign Bankruptcy Reorganization: A Survey

This paper surveys early intellectual antecedents of the Krueger (2001) proposal for creating bankruptcy reorganization procedures at the international level. We focus on actual proposals for new procedures made from the late 1970s up to an influential lecture by Sachs (1995), with brief reference to the formal economics literature on sovereign debt. Beginning with a paper by Oechsli (1981), several key contributions are made during this period, including the analogy with domestic bankruptcy procedures, an understanding of the inefficiencies in international lending that might justify such procedures, and specific institutional and legal suggestions that continue to play a role in the current debate.

Strengthening IMF Crisis Prevention

To better fulfill its crisis-prevention mandate, IMF surveillance needs to provide stronger incentives for countries to follow good policies and for markets to avoid boom-bust cycles in capital flows. To this end, surveillance should culminate in a summary public assessment of the quality of a countrys policies and stipulate the actions needed to address shortcomings. A countrys potential access to IMF credits should be linked to the quality of its policies in noncrisis periods in order to create stronger incentives for better policies and reduce incentives for capital to flow where it cannot be used in socially beneficial ways.

What Makes Growth Sustained

We identify structural breaks in economic growth in 140 countries and use these to define growth spells: periods of high growth preceded by an upbreak and ending either with a down break or with the end of the sample. Growth spells tend to be shorter in African and Latin American countries than elsewhere. We find that growth duration is positively related to: the degree of equality of the income distribution; democratic institutions; export orientation (with higher propensities to export manufactures, greater openness to FDI, and avoidance of exchange rate overvaluation favorable for duration); and macroeconomic stability (with even moderate instability curtailing growth duration).