Eduardo Borensztein

The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies; Explaining the Differences

What are the relative roles of macroeconomic variables, structural policies, and initial conditions in explaining the time path of output in transition and the large observed differences in output performance across transition economics? Using a sample of 26 countries, this paper follows a general-to-specific modeling approach that allows for differential effects of policies and initial conditions on the private and state sectors and for time-dependent effects of initial conditions. While showing some fragility to model specification, the results point to the preeminence of structural reforms over both initial conditions and macroeconomic variables in explaining cross-country differences in performance and the timing of the recovery.

A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds

This article explores the behavior of emerging market mutual funds using a novel database covering the holdings of individual funds over the period January 1996 to December 2000. The degree of herding among funds is statistically significant, but moderate. Herding is more widespread among open-ended funds than among closed-end funds, but not more prevalent during crises than during tranquil times. We find some evidence that funds tend to follow momentum strategies, selling past losers and buying past winners.

Financial Crisis and Credit Crunch in Korea: Evidence from Firm-Level Data

This paper analyzes the credit crunch following the recent financial crisis in Korea. Using enterprise-level data, we find that there were big differences in the magnitude of the credit contraction across different types of firms. In particular, chaebol (conglomerate)-affiliated firms appeared to have lost the preferential access to credit they enjoyed in the pre-crisis period, and credit appears to have been reallocated in favor of more efficient firms. This suggests that the credit crunch suffered by certain sectors can be attributed to the adjustment by banks and enterprises to the restructuring of the financial sector, rather than to tight monetary policy or an external credit constraint.

Sovereign Debt Structure for Crisis Prevention

The debate on government debt in the context of possible reforms of the international financial architecture has thus far focused on crisis resolution. This paper seeks to broaden this debate. It asks how government debt could be structured to pursue other objectives, including crisis prevention, international risk-sharing, and facilitating the adjustment of fiscal variables to changes in domestic economic conditions. To that end, the paper considers recently developed analytical approaches to improving sovereign debt structure using existing instruments, and reviews a number of proposals--including the introduction of explicit seniority and GDP-linked instruments--in the sovereign context.

Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems; The Role of Early Warning Systems

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption to other developing countries, and have even had repercussions on advanced economies. To predict crises, their causes must be clearly understood. Two competing strands of theories are reviewed in this paper. The first focuses on the consequences of such policies as excessive credit growth in provoking depletion of foreign exchange reserves and making a devaluation enevitable. The second emphasizes the trade-offs between internal and external balance that the policymaker faces in defending a peg.

Monetary independence in emerging markets : does the exchange rate regime make a difference?

This paper compares the impact of shocks to U.S. interest rates and emerging market bond spreads on domestic interest rates and exchange rates across several emerging market economies with different exchange rate regimes. Consistent with conventional priors, the results indicate that interest rates in Hong Kong react much more to U.S. interest rate shocks and shocks to international risk premia than interest rates in Singapore. The results are less clearcut in the comparison of Argentina and Mexico: while interest rates (and the exchange rate) in Mexico seem to react less to U.S. interest rate shocks, they react about the same to bond spread shocks, in addition to a significant impact on the exchange rate.

An Evaluation of Monetary Regime Options for Latin America

We assess monetary regime options for Latin American countries. The costs of a common currency are likely to outweigh its benefits, as those countries face diverse economic shocks, do not trade much with each other, and are affected by common international financial shocks only to the same extent as the average pair of emerging markets. Unilateral dollarization would be desirable only for those countries where there are strong links to the U.S. economy, the credibility of the monetary authorities is irreversibly lost, and there is keen demand for dollar-denominated financial assets. Finally, some countries in the region seem to be good candidates for meaningful and useful floating.

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Target in Highly Dollarized Economies

We examine the implications of high degrees of dollarization for the choice of exchange rate regime and the information content of various monetary aggregates in developing countries. We conclude that a high degree of currency substitution argues for a more fixed exchange rate regime, while asset substitution may imply that either more rigid or more flexible regimes may be appropriate. We also ask whether the most informative monetary aggregates include dollar assets. Based on an analysis of five countries, we conclude inter alia that broader aggregates that include dollar assets perform better than those that do not.

Credit Allocation and Financial Crisis in Korea

This paper analyzes some of the structural problems associated with the Korean financial sector, and investigates whether the financial system has allocated credit in an efficient way over the past three decades. Using data for 32 manufacturing sectors, we find no evidence that credit flows were directed to the relatively more profitable sectors, either before or after the financial reforms. We also find that the flow of credits did not contribute to improve the economic performance of the favored industries over time.

Savings, Investment, and Growth in Eastern Europe

Even modest investment rates may achieve satisfactory rates of growth in the reforming economies of Eastern Europe because their relative capital scarcity implies high rates of productivity for capital. The most serious obstacle to private investment is uncertainty about the reform process, which can potentially rule out all but the most profitable projects. This problem sharply increases the payoff from accelerating the structural reform process. Regarding savings, critical aspects are the changes in methods of financing resulting from economic reform, and the availability of foreign savings, both in the form of loans and foreign direct investment.