Jerry W. Knox

Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia

Climate change is a serious threat to crop productivity in regions that are already food insecure. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of eight major crops in Africa and South Asia using a systematic review and meta-analysis of data in 52 original publications from an initial screen of 1144 studies. Here we show that the projected mean change in yield of all crops is 8% by the 2050s in both regions. Across Africa, mean yield changes of 17% (wheat), 5% (maize), 15% (sorghum) and 10% (millet) and across South Asia of 16% (maize) and 11% (sorghum) were estimated. No mean change in yield was detected for rice. The limited number of studies identified for cassava, sugarcane and yams precluded any opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis for these crops. Variation about the projected mean yield change for all crops was smaller in studies that used an ensemble of >3 climate (GCM) models. Conversely, complex simulation studies that used biophysical crop models showed the greatest variation in mean yield changes. Evidence of crop yield impact in Africa and South Asia is robust for wheat, maize, sorghum and millet, and either inconclusive, absent or contradictory for rice, cassava and sugarcane.

Climate change and water in the UK - past changes and future prospects

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make.

Mapping the total volumetric irrigation water requirements in England and Wales

Abstract The net volumetric (m 3 ) irrigation water requirements for the main crop categories currently irrigated in England and Wales have been calculated and mapped within a geographic information system (GIS). The procedure developed by Knox et al. (1996, Agric. Water Manage., 31: 1–15) for maincrop potatoes ( Solanum tuberosum ) was extended to cater for the other crops currently irrigated. The annual irrigation needs (mm) for the eight major irrigated crop categories, grown on three contrasting soil types at 11 representative weather stations, were determined using a daily water balance irrigation scheduling model. The results were correlated with existing national datasets of climate, current land use, soils and irrigation practice, to generate volumetric (m 3 ) irrigation water requirement maps at 2 km resolution. The total net volumetric irrigation water requirements for a UK ‘design’ dry year (defined as the requirement with a 20% probability of exceedance) are estimated to be 140 × 10 6 m 3 for the eight main crop categories currently irrigated and the 1994 cropping pattern. Previous theoretical dry year demand estimates, using scheduling models and large agroclimatic areas, were 109 × 10 6 m 3 and 222 × 10 6 m 3 . The irrigation demand for other crops grown in the open would typically add another 4%. The procedure has been validated nationally, by comparing the calculated dry year demand for 1990 against government irrigation survey returns for 1990, for each crop category, and regionally against National Rivers Authority (NRA) abstraction records for 1990, for each NRA Region. The estimates obtained agree well with the reported distribution between crops and between regions. The most recent actual ‘dry’ year for which comparative data are available is 1990. It is estimated that the dry year requirements for the 1990 land use would have been 148 × 10 6 m 3 . Although farmer demand, actual abstractions and crop requirements are not necessarily the same, irrigation survey returns to the Government indicated that 134 × 10 6 m 3 were actually applied, and the NRA estimated from meter returns that 138 × 10 6 m 3 were abstracted. It is noted, however, that some abstraction restrictions were in force, the scope of the data is slightly different and all figures contain inaccuracies. Potential applications for improving irrigation demand management and water conservation at regional and catchment levels are discussed with reference to two contrasting regions.

Microbiological Water Quality Requirements for Salad Irrigation in the United Kingdom

The growth in United Kingdom salad production is dependent on irrigation to maintain product quality. There are concerns that irrigation with poor-quality water could pose a disease risk. This article examines the key issues in the emerging debate on the microbiological quality of water used for salad irrigation in the United Kingdom. The links between irrigation water quality and foodborne disease, and the current international guidance on irrigation water quality, are firstly reviewed. The findings indicate that a number of recent food-poisoning outbreaks have been linked to the consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables and that unhygienic product handling is implicated as the principal source of contamination. There is also credible evidence that salads contaminated in the field, including by irrigation water, can pose a small disease risk at the point of sale. Although irrigation water-quality standards exist in various forms internationally, there is no nationally agreed on standard used in the United Kingdom. This paper then describes the results of a survey conducted in 2003 of United Kingdom irrigation practices that might influence the microbiological quality of salads. The survey showed that surface water is the principal irrigation water source, that overhead irrigation predominates, that the gap between the last irrigation and harvest may be < 24 h in many cases, and that current water-quality monitoring practices are generally very limited in scope. This paper concludes with a discussion of the issues emerging from the review and survey, including the need for improved water-quality monitoring, and the problems associated with establishing water-quality standards that could be either too strict or too lax.

Climate change and land suitability for potato production in England and Wales: impacts and adaptation

The viability of commercial potato production is influenced by spatial and temporal variability in soils and agroclimate, and the availability of water resources where supplementary irrigation is required. Soil characteristics and agroclimatic conditions greatly influence the cultivar choice, agronomic husbandry practices and the economics of production. Using the latest (UKCP09) scenarios of climate change for the UK, the present paper describes a methodology using pedo-climatic functions and a geographical information system (GIS) to model and map current and future land suitability for potato production in England and Wales. The outputs identify regions where rainfed production is likely to become limiting and where future irrigated production would be constrained due to shortages in water availability. The results suggest that by the 2050s, the area of land that is currently well or moderately suited for rainfed production would decline by 88 and 74%, respectively, under the ‘most likely’ climate projections for the low emissions scenario and by 95 and 86%, respectively, for the high emissions scenario, owing to increased likelihood of dry conditions. In many areas, rainfed production would become increasingly risky. However, with supplementary irrigation, c . 0·85 of the total arable land in central and eastern England would remain suitable for production, although most of this is in catchments where water resources are already over-licensed and/or over-abstracted; the expansion of irrigated cropping is thus likely to be constrained by water availability. The increase in the volume of water required due to the switch from rainfed- to irrigated-potato cropping is likely to be much greater than the incremental increase in water demand solely on irrigated potatoes. The implications of climate change on the potato industry, the adaptation options and responses available, and the uncertainty associated with the land suitability projections, are discussed.

THE WATER RELATIONS AND IRRIGATION REQUIREMENTS OF SUGAR CANE ( SACCHARUM OFFICINARUM ): A REVIEW

SUMMARY The results of research on the water relations and irrigation needs of sugar cane are collated and summarized in an attempt to link fundamental studies on crop physiology to irrigation practices. Background information on the centres of production of sugar cane is followed by reviews of (1) crop development, including roots; (2) plant water relations; (3) crop water requirements; (4) water productivity; (5) irrigation systems and (6) irrigation scheduling. The majority of the recent research published in the international literature has been conducted in Australia and southern Africa. Leaf/stem extension is a more sensitive indicator of the onset of water stress than stomatal conductance or photosynthesis. Possible mechanisms by which cultivars differ in their responses to drought have been described. Roots extend in depth at rates of 5–18 mm d −1 reaching maximum depths of > 4mi nca. 300 d providing there are no physical restrictions. The Penman-Monteith equation and the USWB Class A pan both give good estimates of reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo). The corresponding values for the crop coefficient (Kc) are 0.4 (initial stage), 1.25 (peak season) and 0.75 (drying off phase). On an annual basis, the total water-use (ETc) is in the range 1100–1800 mm, with peak daily rates of 6–15 mm d −1 . There is a linear relationship between cane/sucrose yields and actual evapotranspiration (ETc) over the season, with slopes of about 100 (cane) and 13 (sugar) kg (ha mm)−1 (but variable). Water stress during tillering need not result in a loss in yield because of compensatory growth on re-watering. Water can be withheld prior to harvest for periods of time up to the equivalent of twice the depth of available water in the root zone. As alternatives to traditional furrow irrigation, drag-line sprinklers and centre pivots have several advantages, such as allowing the application of small quantities of water at frequent intervals. Drip irrigation should only be contemplated when there are well-organized management systems in place. Methods for scheduling irrigation are summarized and the reasons for their limited uptake considered. In conclusion, the ‘drivers for change’, including the need for improved environmental protection, influencing technology choice if irrigated sugar cane production is to be sustainable are summarized.

Water and energy footprint of irrigated agriculture in the Mediterranean region

Irrigated agriculture constitutes the largest consumer of freshwater in the Mediterranean region and provides a major source of income and employment for rural livelihoods. However, increasing droughts and water scarcity have highlighted concerns regarding the environmental sustainability of agriculture in the region. An integrated assessment combining a gridded water balance model with a geodatabase and GIS has been developed and used to assess the water demand and energy footprint of irrigated production in the region. Modelled outputs were linked with crop yield and water resources data to estimate water (m3 kg−1) and energy (CO2 kg−1) productivity and identify vulnerable areas or ‘hotspots’. For a selected key crops in the region, irrigation accounts for 61 km3 yr−1 of water abstraction and 1.78 Gt CO2 emissions yr−1, with most emissions from sunflower (73 kg CO2/t) and cotton (60 kg CO2/t) production. Wheat is a major strategic crop in the region and was estimated to have a water productivity of 1000 t Mm−3 and emissions of 31 kg CO2/t. Irrigation modernization would save around 8 km3 of water but would correspondingly increase CO2 emissions by around +135%. Shifting from rain-fed to irrigated production would increase irrigation demand to 166 km3 yr−1 (+137%) whilst CO2 emissions would rise by +270%. The study has major policy implications for understanding the water–energy–food nexus in the region and the trade-offs between strategies to save water, reduce CO2 emissions and/or intensify food production.

Priority research questions for the UK food system

The rise of food security up international political, societal and academic agendas has led to increasing interest in novel means of improving primary food production and reducing waste. There are however, also many ‘post-farm gate’ activities that are critical to food security, including processing, packaging, distributing, retailing, cooking and consuming. These activities all affect a range of important food security elements, notably availability, affordability and other aspects of access, nutrition and safety. Addressing the challenge of universal food security, in the context of a number of other policy goals (e.g. social, economic and environmental sustainability), is of keen interest to a range of UK stakeholders but requires an up-to-date evidence base and continuous innovation. An exercise was therefore conducted, under the auspices of the UK Global Food Security Programme, to identify priority research questions with a focus on the UK food system (though the outcomes may be broadly applicable to other developed nations). Emphasis was placed on incorporating a wide range of perspectives (‘world views’) from different stakeholder groups: policy, private sector, non-governmental organisations, advocacy groups and academia. A total of 456 individuals submitted 820 questions from which 100 were selected by a process of online voting and a three-stage workshop voting exercise. These 100 final questions were sorted into 10 themes and the ‘top’ question for each theme identified by a further voting exercise. This step also allowed four different stakeholder groups to select the top 7–8 questions from their perspectives. Results of these voting exercises are presented. It is clear from the wide range of questions prioritised in this exercise that the different stakeholder groups identified specific research needs on a range of post-farm gate activities and food security outcomes. Evidence needs related to food affordability, nutrition and food safety (all key elements of food security) featured highly in the exercise. While there were some questions relating to climate impacts on production, other important topics for food security (e.g. trade, transport, preference and cultural needs) were not viewed as strongly by the participants.

Identifying future risks to UK agricultural crop production: putting climate change in context.

Internationally, agriculture is widely regarded as one of the sectors at most risk from a changing climate. This is due to the impact of increased temperatures, reduced rainfall and increased frequency of extreme events, not only in the tropics but also in temperate environments. In the UK, growers also face a range of ‘non-climate’ risks, which, it is often argued, present a potentially greater and more immediate threat to sustainable food production than climate change. This paper highlights the climate and non-climate impacts on crop production, the adaptation options and the institutional and regulatory barriers to their uptake by farmers. It concludes that there are likely to be both positive impacts (for example, yield gains) and negative impacts (for example, increased water stress). Either way, there will be a need for new investments in adaptive management and technology, including new collaborations between the public and private sectors, to enable UK agriculture to respond to the potential effects of climate change.

Mapping the spatial distribution of volumetric irrigation water requirements for maincrop potatoes in England and Wales

Abstract A procedure has been developed for mapping the spatial distribution of irrigation water requirements for maincrop potatoes in England and Wales using a geographic information system (GIS). The maps take into account crop, climate and soil factors, together with current land use and the proportion of the crop irrigated in each county. The annual irrigation needs (mm) were determined for maincrop potatoes on three contrasting soil types at 11 representative weather stations, using an irrigation scheduling computer model. The results were correlated to available national datasets on soils, climate, current land use, and irrigation practice within a GIs model to generate irrigation need (mm) and volumetric (m 3 ) water requirement maps at 5 km resolution. The total net volumetric irrigation water requirements for England and Wales in a ‘design’ dry year such as 1990 (fifth driest in 20) are estimated to be 61 × 10 6 m 3 for all maincrop potatoes currently irrigated. This compares with previous estimates of 40 × 10 6 m 3 and government agricultural census returns suggesting 51 × 10 6 m 3 were actually applied in 1990, when some restrictions were in force. By overlaying boundaries, the volumetric requirements could be assessed for selected river catchments, aquifers or administrative areas. The effects of changes in land use and irrigation practices could also be modelled to predict future irrigation water requirements. Potential applications of this methodology for water resource management are discussed.