Alice Bows-Larkin

Transitions in pathways of human development and carbon emissions

Radical emissions reductions require a new perspective on plausible outcomes of low-carbon development achievement. A narrow focus on income measures of national progress may be difficult to reconcile with deep emissions reductions, but a broader scope, measuring real development, reveals opportunities for sustainable transitions. In this paper, I highlight 20 countries achieving above 70 years of life expectancy, yet lower than 1 ton of carbon emissions per capita (?Goldemberg?s Corner?). To explore their relevance for other nations, the underlying drivers of carbon emissions are estimated, and their cross-nationaldistribution quantified using cluster analysis. Unlike previous studies, trade-corrected consumption based carbon emissions are used to account for potential carbon leakage between nations. Five clusters of countries are identified with varying patterns of drivers and highly differentiated outcomes of life expectancy and carbon emissions. Four clusters intersect within Goldembergs Corner, suggesting diverse combinations of drivers may still lead to sustainable outcomes, presenting many countries with an opportunity to follow a pathway towards low-carbon human development. By contrast, within Goldemberg?s Corner,there are no countries from the core, wealthy consuming nations. The results reaffirm a need to address economic inequalities within international agreements for climate mitigation, but acknowledge plausible and accessible examples of low-carbon human development for countries that share similar underlying drivers of carbon emissions.

Priority research questions for the UK food system

The rise of food security up international political, societal and academic agendas has led to increasing interest in novel means of improving primary food production and reducing waste. There are however, also many ‘post-farm gate’ activities that are critical to food security, including processing, packaging, distributing, retailing, cooking and consuming. These activities all affect a range of important food security elements, notably availability, affordability and other aspects of access, nutrition and safety. Addressing the challenge of universal food security, in the context of a number of other policy goals (e.g. social, economic and environmental sustainability), is of keen interest to a range of UK stakeholders but requires an up-to-date evidence base and continuous innovation. An exercise was therefore conducted, under the auspices of the UK Global Food Security Programme, to identify priority research questions with a focus on the UK food system (though the outcomes may be broadly applicable to other developed nations). Emphasis was placed on incorporating a wide range of perspectives (‘world views’) from different stakeholder groups: policy, private sector, non-governmental organisations, advocacy groups and academia. A total of 456 individuals submitted 820 questions from which 100 were selected by a process of online voting and a three-stage workshop voting exercise. These 100 final questions were sorted into 10 themes and the ‘top’ question for each theme identified by a further voting exercise. This step also allowed four different stakeholder groups to select the top 7–8 questions from their perspectives. Results of these voting exercises are presented. It is clear from the wide range of questions prioritised in this exercise that the different stakeholder groups identified specific research needs on a range of post-farm gate activities and food security outcomes. Evidence needs related to food affordability, nutrition and food safety (all key elements of food security) featured highly in the exercise. While there were some questions relating to climate impacts on production, other important topics for food security (e.g. trade, transport, preference and cultural needs) were not viewed as strongly by the participants.

All adrift: aviation, shipping, and climate change policy

All sectors face decarbonization for a 2 °C temperature increase to be avoided. Nevertheless, meaningful policy measures that address rising CO2 from international aviation and shipping remain woefully inadequate. Treated with a similar approach within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), they are often debated as if facing comparable challenges, and even influence each others’ mitigation policies. Yet their strengths and weaknesses have important distinctions. This article sheds light on these differences so that they can be built upon to improve the quality of debate and ensuing policy development. The article quantifies ‘2 °C’ pathways for these sectors, highlighting the need for mitigation measures to be urgently accelerated. It reviews recent developments, drawing attention to one example where a change in aviation mitigation policy had a direct impact on measures to cut CO2 from shipping. Finally, the article contrasts opportunities and barriers towards mitigation. The article concludes that there is a portfolio of opportunities for short- to medium-term decarbonization for shipping, but its complexity is its greatest barrier to change. In contrast, the more simply structured aviation sector is pinning too much hope on emissions trading to deliver CO2 cuts in line with 2 °C. Instead, the solution remains controversial and unpopular – avoiding 2 °C requires demand management. Policy relevance The governance arrangements around the CO2 produced by international aviation and shipping are different from other sectors because their emissions are released in international airspace and waters. Instead, through the Kyoto Protocol, the International Civil Aviation Authority (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) were charged with developing policies towards mitigating their emissions. Slow progress to date, coupled with strong connections with rapidly growing economies, has led to the CO2 from international transport growing at a higher rate than the average rate from all other sectors. This article considers this rapid growth, and the potential for future CO2 growth in the context of avoiding a 2 °C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. It explores similarities and differences between these two sectors, highlighting that a reliance on global market-based measures to deliver required CO2 cuts will likely leave both at odds with the overarching climate goal.

Importance of non-CO2 emissions in carbon management

Background: GHG budgets highlight a need for urgency, yet analyses are often CO2-focused, with less attention paid to non-CO2. Results: In this paper, scenarios are used to explore non-CO2 drivers and barriers to their mitigation, drawing out implications for CO2 management. Results suggest that even optimistic technological and consumption-related developments lead to on-going increases in global N2O, largely to improve food security within a changing climate. This contrasts with existing analysis, where lower levels of N2O by 2050 are projected. Conclusions: As avoiding ‘2ｰC’ limits the emissions budget, constraints on reducing non-CO2 add pressure to energy system decarbonization. Overlooking how a changing climate and rising consumption restricts efforts to curb non-CO2 will result in policies aiming to avoid 2ｰC falling short of the mark.

Carbon Budgets for Aviation or Gamble with our Future

Abstract Purpose/approach Despite the high profile of climate change rhetoric and the carbon intensive nature of flying, policies for controlling CO2 from aviation remain at odds with global commitments on climate change. Taking a carbon budgeting approach to compare future aviation scenarios with the scale of necessary emission reductions demonstrates the extent of this contradiction. The significant potential for ongoing aviation growth contrasts with the need to curb substantially global CO2 emissions across all sectors. For even a 50:50 chance of staying within the 2°C threshold, emission pathways imply around a 75% cut in absolute emissions by 2050 (from 1990 levels). Set against this, aviation’s CO2 emissions are expected to grow by between 170% and 480% over the same period, and they could feasibly be higher still. Originality/findings For the international community to be serious about its climate change commitments, moral and ethical concerns need to be considered alongside technical and economic issues. It is timely to question whether expansion of an industry with few technological options for decarbonisation is a reasonable way to gamble with our future.

Technologies for the high seas: meeting the climate challenge

Background: Progress toward decarbonizing shipping has been slow compared with other sectors. To explore the scope for an urgent step-change cut in CO2, this paper presents results from a participatory technology roadmapping exercise. Results: Combining existing incremental and novel technologies with slow-steaming can deliver reductions in CO2 of over 50% even in the short term for existing ships. However, roadmaps for three vessel types illustrate barriers to change including the sectors complexity, infrastructure lock-in and a need for tailored market and vessel-specific roadmaps to support decision-making. Conclusions: Through technology and engineering, the outlook for the shipping sector to significantly cut its CO2 emissions, even in the short term, is promising. Nevertheless, the scale of change requires support to demonstrate how the long-term low-carbon vision offers enough benefit to overcome necessary short-term investment.

Consumer responses to a future UK food system

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe research exploring consumer responses to potential changes in food-related practices to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Design/methodology/approach – Six focus groups explored consumer responses to measures to intended to mitigate the emissions from, and adapt to the impacts of climate change. These included: meat reduction, greater reliance on seasonal British food, meal replacement tablets, laboratory grown meat, communal eating houses, genetically modified food and food waste. Practice theory provided the lens to interpret the changes to meanings, competences and materials associated with food consumption. Findings – Changes that could be assimilated within existing competencies were viewed more positively, with lack of competence a key barrier to accommodating change. At present, climate change and sustainability do not influence purchasing decisions. Policy measures delivering multiple benefits (“win-wins”), of which environmental performance m...

Russia's cumulative carbon budgets for a global 2°C target

Abstract Russia is the fifth highest emitter of carbon dioxide, having been in the top five for at least six decades. However, thus far no in-depth study has estimated Russias cumulative emissions in the context of the global 2°C constraint. This is despite the IPCC reiterating the importance of cumulative emissions. Translating the global 2°C temperature commitment into a meaningful national context, this paper derives and evaluates 2°C-compatible carbon budgets for Russia, based on a range of apportionments. The work contributes to the debate by providing a deeper analysis of the principles of allocating carbon emissions to Russia. This analysis demonstrates how, if Russia is to make a fair contribution to global emission reductions in line with 2°C, its 2011–2100 cumulative emissions should stay within 20-26 Gt CO2, commensurate with a 37–52% probability of exceeding 2°C. If Russia continues to emit carbon dioxide at current annual levels, this budget will be “spent” by the mid-2020s. The carbon budget estimated here for Russia appears technically feasible, if extremely challenging. Despite continuing to assert itself as a fossil fuel superpower, Russia has a wealth of opportunities for full and early decarbonization, including the potential to become a net exporter of renewable energy.

Applying ImPACT: A modelling framework to explore the role of producers and consumers in reducing emissions

Background: The consumption emissions of many developed countries including the UK are significantly larger than their territorial emissions – the focus of international mitigation commitments. Methods: The paper presents the development and application of a multiregional input–output based scenario tool to explore the impact of carbon reduction measures on territorial and consumption emissions. Results: Applying the tool to estimate the effect of current UK governments mitigation plans demonstrates that coupled with expected growth in the economy and population, ceretis paribus, territorial emissions would reduce by ∼40% by 2030 and consumption emissions would increase by ∼14%. Conclusion: The analysis puts the UKs own reduction efforts in the context of its wider emissions responsibility, highlighting the significance of carbon embodied in goods imported from non-Annex B countries.

Two degrees of separation

The global climate target of 2 °C has been widely criticised as meaningless, but we ditch it at our peril, says Alice Bows-Larkin