Jeryl L. Mumpower

Risk evaluation and management

This book presents the cooperative efforts of political scientists, philosophers, policy analysts, and other specialists from many fields, in the social and behavioral study of issues in risk management and risk evaluation. Topics covered include the psychometric study of risk perception, risk, rationalism, and rationality, methods for comparing the risks of technologies, improving risk analysis, alternative risk management policies for state and loval governments, the management of risk, and science and analysis: roles in risk and decision making.

Fundamental obstacles to the use of scientific information in public policy making

In contrast to the prevailing view that more effective use can be made of scientific information in public policy formation, several fundamental obstacles to the effective use of science are identified and described. It is argued that any effort to bring scientific information to bear on public policy must show how these obstacles have been removed.

Expert Judgement and Expert Disagreement

As Hammond has argued, traditional explanations for disagreement among experts (incompetence, venality, and ideology) are inadequate. The character and fallibilities of the human judgement process itself lead to persistent disagreements even among competent, honest, and disinterested experts. Social Judgement Theory provides powerful methods for analysing such judgementally based disagreements when the experts’ judgement processes can be represented by additive models involving the same cues. However, the validity and usefulness of such representations depend on several conditions: (a) experts must agree on a problem definition, (b) experts must have access to the same information, and (c) experts must use the same organising principles. When these conditions are not met, methods for diagnosing and treating disagreement are poorly understood. As a start towards developing such an understanding, sources of expert disagreement are discussed and categorised.

Linking Environmental Models with Models of Human Judgment: A Symmetrical Decision Aid

Policy formation involves the interaction of two systems, the environmental system and the human cognitive system which attempts to form a judgment about it. At present, the interaction between these two systems is not under rational control. That is, although a) interactive computer models of environmental systems have been constructed and are in increasing use, and b) interactive computer models of human judgment have been constructed and have been found to be of practical use, c) links between the two until recently have not been considered. The specific aim of this article is to describe such a link for the purpose of developing an aid for planners and policy makers.

Psychometric and demographic predictors of the perceived risk of terrorist threats and the willingness to pay for terrorism risk management programs

A 2009 national telephone survey of 924 U.S. adults assessed perceptions of terrorism and homeland security issues. Respondents rated severity of effects, level of understanding, number affected, and likelihood of four terrorist threats: poisoned water supply; explosion of a small nuclear device in a major U.S. city; an airplane attack similar to 9/11; and explosion of a bomb in a building, train, subway, or highway. Respondents rated perceived risk and willingness to pay (WTP) for dealing with each threat. Demographic, attitudinal, and party affiliation data were collected. Respondents rated bomb as highest in perceived risk but gave the highest WTP ratings to nuclear device. For both perceived risk and WTP, psychometric variables were far stronger predictors than were demographic ones. OLS regression analyses using both types of variables to predict perceived risk found only two significant demographic predictors for any threat--Democrat (a negative predictor for bomb) and white male (a significant positive predictor for airline attack). In contrast, among psychometric variables, severity, number affected, and likelihood were predictors of all four threats and level of understanding was a predictor for one. For WTP, education was a negative predictor for three threats; no other demographic variables were significant predictors for any threat. Among psychometric variables, perceived risk and number affected were positive predictors of WTP for all four threats; severity and likelihood were predictors for three; level of understanding was a significant predictor for two.

Negotiation and design: Supporting resource allocation decisions through analytical mediation

The common element of all negotiations is change. Design is the key to directing and managing change, and resource allocation is the most critical component of design. Negotiations about change are, therefore, fundamentally, negotiations about design and resource allocation. Negotiations vary along a continuum, from those in which negotiators have consonant interests (share objectives) to discordant ones (disagree about appropriate objectives). The joint distribution of all possible payoffs defines the structure of the negotiation problem—the opportunities the problem affords and constraints it imposes on negotiators. The analytical mediation approach supports the activities of an impartial, neutral third party who attempts to assist the disputants to reach a mutually satisfactory agreement. It makes use of different types of techniques to support negotiations, depending on their location along the negotiation continuum. Two case studies involving analytical mediation are reported. One case study involves a budgeting exercise, in which the negotiators’ interests were essentially consonant. The second case study involves a labor-management contract problem, in which the negotiators’ interests were highly discordant.

Selecting and evaluating tools and methods for public participation

The proposition that greater levels of public participation would improve public decisions derives from two antecedent assumptions. The first is that the process would be improved by including persons with perspectives and knowledge that would otherwise be missing. The second is that support for adopted policies would be stronger, if the public had better information and more access to the process. How should the effectiveness of available public participation techniques be evaluated and what principles should guide prospective choices from among them? Extending Habermass critical theory, Renn, Webler, and Wiedemann [1] have proposed evaluating public participation methods according to whether they are fair and competent. Rohrbaugh and Quinns [2] Competing Values theory defines four perspectives - rational, empirical, consensual, and political - for evaluating effectiveness. Thomas [3], the International Association for Public Participation, and Resources for the Future, among others, have also proposed potential evaluative frameworks. Important potential constraints on public participation include cost, time, political support, and feasibility. Additional thorny issues include: deciding whether to include public participation as part of the policy making process; balancing a priori versus a posteriori standards of fairness; giving weight to existing versus future preferences; managing the tension between democratic and representative processes, and resolving issues of standing in disputes. The selection and evaluation of public participation techniques need to take into account their virtues and potential drawbacks, circumstantial constraints, and the relative importance of the various competing objectives of public participation processes.

Scientific Information, Social Values, and Policy Formation: The Application of Simulation Models and Judgment Analysis to the Denver Regional Air Pollution Problem

Attempts to bring scientific information into social policymaking are frequently characterized by a number of problems and weaknesses that lead to ineffective use of such information. The symmetrical linkage system (SLS) is suggested as a method for improving the integration of scientific information with social values in forming social policy. The central features of the SLS are a) the separate treatment of scientific issues and social value issues through the construction of quantitative models describing each, and b) the analytical integration of scientific information and social values through the linkage of these two types of models. The development of a prototypical SLS for a metropolitan air pollution problem is described.

Chapter 15 An Analysis of the Judgmental Components of Negotiation and a Proposed Judgmentally-Oriented Approach to Mediation

Publisher Summary This chapter examines negotiation from the perspective of social judgment theory (SJT) and proposes a judgmentally-based approach to mediation, illustrated by a case study. SJT research on cognitive and judgmental factors suggests a number of counter-intuitive conclusions regarding conflict, negotiation, and mediation. Negotiations take a variety of forms. One of the most common occurs when individuals are in conflict because they want different things, but must settle for the same thing. Negotiation can be conceptualized as a hierarchical, n-party judgment problem, involving three stages. The first involves independent evaluations by each party of the desirability of packages of potential settlements, considering solely those issues explicitly under negotiation. The second involves further evaluation taking into account additional factors not subject to direct negotiation. The third involves joint judgments of acceptability and agreement between negotiators. A key contribution of SJT to the study of conflict resolution is the observation that “people dispute many things besides who gets what.”

Public Concerns about LLRW Facility Siting A Comparative Study

A comparative analysis of public concerns about siting low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) disposal facilities in the United States (specifically New York State), the United Kingdom, and Hungary was performed. The analysis was based on publicly expressed responses to LLRW siting processes, plans, or decisions in each country. A typology of public concerns was developed. There was a substantial similarity in the concerns expressed in all the three countries. Fifteen of the twenty concerns were observed in all three, and another two were shared by two. However, there were differences in the relative importance of the concerns and the nature of specific arguments. The results suggest that idiosyncratic economic, social, and political factors significantly influence the importance of various concerns and proposed alternative solutions to LLRW management.