Jesse Nusbaumer

Evaluating hydrological processes in the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) using stable isotope ratios of water

Water isotope-enabled climate and earth system models are able to directly simulate paleoclimate proxy records to aid in climate reconstruction. A less used major advantage is that water isotopologues provide an independent constraint on many atmospheric and hydrologic processes, allowing the model to be developed and tuned in a more physically accurate way. This paper describes the new isotope-enabled CAM5 model, including its isotopic physics routines, and its ability to simulate the modern distribution of water isotopologues in vapor and precipitation. It is found that the model has a negative isotopic bias in precipitation. This bias is partially attributed to model overestimates of deep convection, particularly over the midlatitude oceans during winter. This was determined by examining isotope ratios both in precipitation and vapor, instead of precipitation alone. This enhanced convective activity depletes the isotopic water vapor in the lower troposphere, where the majority of poleward moisture transport occurs, resulting in the insufficient transport of water isotopologue mass poleward and landward. This analysis also demonstrates that large-scale dynamical or moisture source changes can impact isotopologue values as much as local shifts in temperature or precipitation amount. The diagnosis of limitations in the large-scale transport characteristics has major implications if one is using isotope-enabled climate models to examine paleoclimate proxy records, as well as the modern global hydroclimate.

Evaluation of modeled land‐atmosphere exchanges with a comprehensive water isotope fractionation scheme in version 4 of the Community Land Model

All physical process models and field observations are inherently imperfect, so there is a need to both (1) obtain measurements capable of constraining quantities of interest and (2) develop frameworks for assessment in which the desired processes and their uncertainties may be characterized. Incorporation of stable water isotopes into land surface schemes offers a complimentary approach to constrain hydrological processes such as evapotranspiration, and yields acute insight into the hydrological and biogeochemical behaviors of the domain. Here, a stable water isotopic scheme in the National Center for Atmospheric Researchs version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4) is presented. An overview of the isotopic methods is given. Isotopic model results are compared to available datasets on site-level and global scales for validation. Comparisons of site-level soil moisture and isotope ratios reveal that surface water does not percolate as deeply into the soil as observed in field measurements. The broad success of the new model provides confidence in its use for a range of climate and hydrological studies, while the sensitivity of simulation results to kinetic processes stands as a reminder that new theoretical development and refinement of kinetic effect parameterizations is needed to achieve further improvements.

A Mathematical Framework for Analysis of Water Tracers. Part II: Understanding Large-Scale Perturbations in the Hydrological Cycle due to CO2 Doubling

AbstractThe aerial hydrological cycle response to CO2 doubling from a Lagrangian, rather than Eulerian, perspective is evaluated using information from numerical water tracers implemented in a global climate model. While increased surface evaporation (both local and remote) increases precipitation globally, changes in transport are necessary to create a spatial pattern where precipitation decreases in the subtropics and increases substantially at the equator. Overall, changes in the convergence of remotely evaporated moisture are more important to the overall precipitation change than changes in the amount of locally evaporated moisture that precipitates in situ. It is found that CO2 doubling increases the fraction of locally evaporated moisture that is exported, enhances moisture exchange between ocean basins, and shifts moisture convergence within a given basin toward greater distances between moisture source (evaporation) and sink (precipitation) regions. These changes can be understood in terms of the...

A mathematical framework for analysis of water tracers: Part 1: Development of theory and application to the preindustrial mean state

A new matrix operator framework is developed to analyze results from climate modeling studies that employ numerical water tracers (WTs), which track the movement of water in the aerial hydrological cycle from evaporation to precipitation. Model WT output is related to the fundamental equation of hydrology, and the moisture flux divergence is subdivided into the divergence of locally evaporated moisture and the convergence of remotely evaporated moisture. The formulation also separates locally and remotely sourced precipitation. The remote contribution (also the remote moisture convergence) may be further subdivided into zonal, meridional, intrabasin, and interbasin parts. This framework is applied to the preindustrial climate as simulated by a global climate model in which water has been tagged in 10° latitude bands in each of the major ocean basins, and in which each major land mass has been tagged separately. New insights from the method reveal fundamental differences between the major ocean basins in locally sourced precipitation, remotely sourced precipitation, and their relative partitioning. Per unit area, the subtropical Atlantic is the largest global moisture source, providing precipitable water to adjacent land areas and to the eastern Pacific tropics while retaining the least for in situ precipitation. Subtropical moisture is least divergent over the Pacific, which is the smallest moisture source (per unit area) for global land areas. Basins also differ in how subtropical moisture is partitioned between tropical, midlatitude, and land regions. Part II will apply this framework to hydrological cycle perturbations due to CO2 doubling.

Reduced ENSO Variability at the LGM Revealed by an Isotope-Enabled Earth System Model

Studying the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the past can help us better understand its dynamics and improve its future projections. However, both paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations of ENSO strength at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP) have led to contradicting results. Here, we perform model simulations using the recently developed water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). For the first time, model simulated oxygen isotopes are directly compared with those from ENSO reconstructions using the Individual Foraminifera Analysis (IFA). We find that the LGM ENSO is most likely weaker comparing with the preindustrial. The iCESM suggests that total variance of the IFA records may only reflect changes in the annual cycle instead of ENSO variability as previously assumed. Furthermore, the interpretation of subsurface IFA records can be substantially complicated by the habitat depth of thermocline-dwelling foraminifera and their vertical migration with a temporally varying thermocline.

Congo Basin precipitation: Assessing seasonality, regional interactions, and sources of moisture

Precipitation in the Congo Basin was examined using a version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM) with water tagging capability. Using regionally defined water tracers, or tags, the moisture contribution from different source regions to Congo Basin precipitation was investigated. We found that the Indian Ocean and evaporation from the Congo Basin were the dominant moisture sources and that the Atlantic Ocean was a comparatively small source of moisture. In both rainy seasons the southwestern Indian Ocean contributed about 21% of the moisture, while the recycling ratio for moisture from the Congo Basin was about 25%. Near the surface, a great deal of moisture is transported from the Atlantic into the Congo Basin, but much of this moisture is recirculated back over the Atlantic in the lower troposphere. Although the southwestern Indian Ocean is a major source of Indian Ocean moisture, it is not associated with the bulk of the variability in precipitation over the Congo Basin. In wet years, more of the precipitation in the Congo Basin is derived from Indian Ocean moisture, but the spatial distribution of the dominant sources is shifted, reflecting changes in the mid-tropospheric circulation over the Indian Ocean. During wet years there is increased transport of moisture from the equatorial and eastern Indian Ocean. Our results suggests that reliably capturing the linkages between the large-scale circulation patterns over the Indian Ocean and the local circulation over the Congo Basin is critical for future projections of Congo Basin precipitation.

Greater aerial moisture transport distances with warming amplify interbasin salinity contrasts

The distance atmospheric moisture travels is fundamental to Earths hydrologic cycle, governing how much evaporation is exported versus precipitated locally. The present day tropical Atlantic is one region that exports much locally-evaporated moisture away, leading to more saline surface waters in the Atlantic compared to the Indo-Pacific at similar latitudes. Here, we use a state-of-the-art global climate model equipped with numerical water tracers to show that over half of the atmospheric freshwater exported from the Atlantic originates as evaporation in the northern Atlantic subtropics, primarily between 10N and 20N, and is transported across Central America via prevailing easterlies into the equatorial Pacific. We find enhanced moisture export from the Atlantic to Pacific with warming is due to greater distances between moisture source and sink regions, which increases moisture export from the Atlantic at the expense of local precipitation. Distance traveled increases due to longer moisture residence times, not simply Clausius-Clapeyron scaling.

Detecting shifts in tropical moisture imbalances with satellite‐derived isotope ratios in water vapor

As global temperatures rise, regional differences in evaporation (E) and precipitation (P) are likely to become more disparate, causing the drier E-dominated regions of the tropics to become drier and the wetter P-dominated regions to become wetter. Models suggest such intensification of the water cycle should already be taking place; however, quantitatively verifying these changes is complicated by inherent difficulties in measuring E and P with sufficient spatial coverage and resolution. This paper presents a new metric for tracking changes in regional moisture imbalances (e.g. E-P) by defining δDq—the isotope ratio normalized to a reference water vapor concentration of 4 mmol mol-1—and evaluates its efficacy using both remote-sensing retrievals and climate model simulations in the tropics. By normalizing the isotope ratio with respect to water vapor concentration, δDq isolates the portion of isotopic variability most closely associated with shifts between E- and P-dominated regimes. Composite differences in δDq between cold and warm phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) verify that δDq effectively tracks changes in the hydrological cycle when large-scale convective reorganization takes place. Simulated δDq also demonstrates sensitivity to shorter-term variability in E-P at most tropical locations. Since the isotopic signal of E-P in free tropospheric water vapor transfers to the isotope ratios of precipitation, multi-decadal observations of both water vapor and precipitation isotope ratios should provide key evidence of changes in regional moisture imbalances now and in the future.

Interpreting Precession‐Driven δ18O Variability in the South Asian Monsoon Region

Speleothem records from the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) region display variability in the ratio of O and O (δO) in calcium carbonate at orbital frequencies. The dominant mode of variability in many of these records reflects cycles of precession. There are several potential explanations for why SASM speleothem records show a strong precession signal, including changes in temperature, precipitation, and circulation. Here we use an Earth system model with water isotope tracers and water-tagging capability to deconstruct the precession signal found in SASM speleothem records. Our results show that cycles of precession-eccentricity produce changes in SASM intensity that correlate with local temperature, precipitation, and δO. However, neither the amount effect nor temperature differences are responsible for the majority of the SASM δO variability. Instead, changes in the relative moisture contributions from different source regions drive much of the SASM δO signal, with more nearby moisture sources during Northern Hemisphere summer at aphelion and more distant moisture sources during Northern Hemisphere summer at perihelion. Further, we find that evaporation amplifies the δO signal of soil water relative to that of precipitation, providing a better match with the SASM speleothem records. This work helps explain a significant portion of the long-term variability found in SASM speleothem records. Plain Language Summary Cave records suggest that there has been significant long-term climate variability in India related to changes in Earth’s orbit. However, these records are difficult to interpret because the signals can represent several different climate responses. Here we use a climate model that directly simulates the isotopic data captured in the cave records to better interpret their physical meaning. From these model simulations, we show that a large portion of the orbital signals found in the cave records are due to changes in the amount of water vapor coming from different sources. Changes in the amount of local evaporation compared to precipitation also have a large effect on the signals found in the cave records.

Tracking the Strength of the Walker Circulation With Stable Isotopes in Water Vapor

General circulation models (GCMs) predict that the global hydrological cycle will change in response to anthropogenic warming. However, these predictions remain uncertain, in particular for precipitation [IPCC, 2013]. Held and Soden [2006] suggest that as lower-tropospheric water vapor concentration increases in a warming climate, the atmospheric circulation and convective mass fluxes will weaken. Unfortunately, this process is difficult to constrain, as convective mass fluxes are poorly observed and incompletely simulated in GCMs. Here, we demonstrate that stable hydrogen isotope ratios in tropical atmospheric water vapor can trace changes in temperature, atmospheric circulation and convective mass flux in a warming world. We evaluate changes in temperature, the distribution of water vapor, vertical velocity (ω) and advection, and water isotopes in vapor (δD V ) in water isotopeenabled GCM experiments for modern vs. high CO 2 atmospheres to identify spatial patterns of circulation change over the tropical Pacific. We find that slowing circulation in the tropical Pacific moistens the lower troposphere and weakens convective mass flux, both of which impact the δD of water vapor in the mid-troposphere. Our findings constitute a critical demonstration of how water isotope ratios in the tropical Pacific respond to changes in radiative forcing and atmospheric warming. Moreover, as changes in δD V can be observed by satellites, our results develop new metrics for the detection of global warming impacts to the hydrological cycle and, specifically, the strength of the Walker Circulation.