Jessika E. Trancik

Transparent and catalytic carbon nanotube films

We report on the synthesis of thin, transparent, and highly catalytic carbon nanotube films. Nanotubes catalyze the reduction of triiodide, a reaction that is important for the dye-sensitized solar cell, with a charge-transfer resistance as measured by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy that decreases with increasing film thickness. Moreover, the catalytic activity can be significantly enhanced by exposing the nanotubes to ozone in order to introduce defects. Ozone-treated, defective nanotube films could serve as catalytic, transparent, and conducting electrodes for the dye-sensitized solar cell. Other possible applications include batteries, fuel cells, and electroanalytical devices.

Role of design complexity in technology improvement

We study a simple model for the evolution of the cost (or more generally the performance) of a technology or production process. The technology can be decomposed into n components, each of which interacts with a cluster of d - 1 other components. Innovation occurs through a series of trial-and-error events, each of which consists of randomly changing the cost of each component in a cluster, and accepting the changes only if the total cost of the cluster is lowered. We show that the relationship between the cost of the whole technology and the number of innovation attempts is asymptotically a power law, matching the functional form often observed for empirical data. The exponent α of the power law depends on the intrinsic difficulty of finding better components, and on what we term the design complexity: the more complex the design, the slower the rate of improvement. Letting d as defined above be the connectivity, in the special case in which the connectivity is constant, the design complexity is simply the connectivity. When the connectivity varies, bottlenecks can arise in which a few components limit progress. In this case the design complexity depends on the details of the design. The number of bottlenecks also determines whether progress is steady, or whether there are periods of stasis punctuated by occasional large changes. Our model connects the engineering properties of a design to historical studies of technology improvement.

Statistical basis for predicting technological progress.

Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumulative production. An alternative hypothesis is Moores law, which can be generalized to say that technologies improve exponentially with time. Other alternatives were proposed by Goddard, Sinclair et al., and Nordhaus. These hypotheses have not previously been rigorously tested. Using a new database on the cost and production of 62 different technologies, which is the most expansive of its kind, we test the ability of six different postulated laws to predict future costs. Our approach involves hindcasting and developing a statistical model to rank the performance of the postulated laws. Wrights law produces the best forecasts, but Moores law is not far behind. We discover a previously unobserved regularity that production tends to increase exponentially. A combination of an exponential decrease in cost and an exponential increase in production would make Moores law and Wrights law indistinguishable, as originally pointed out by Sahal. We show for the first time that these regularities are observed in data to such a degree that the performance of these two laws is nearly the same. Our results show that technological progress is forecastable, with the square root of the logarithmic error growing linearly with the forecasting horizon at a typical rate of 2.5% per year. These results have implications for theories of technological change, and assessments of candidate technologies and policies for climate change mitigation.

Historical Costs of Coal-Fired Electricity and Implications for the Future

We study the cost of coal-fired electricity in the United States between 1882 and 2006 by decomposing it in terms of the price of coal, transportation cost, energy density, thermal efficiency, plant construction cost, interest rate, capacity factor, and operations and maintenance cost. The dominant determinants of cost have been the price of coal and plant construction cost. The price of coal appears to fluctuate more or less randomly while the construction cost follows long-term trends, decreasing from 1902 to 1970, increasing from 1970 to 1990, and leveling off since then. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of using long time series and comparing electricity generation technologies using decomposed total costs, rather than costs of single components like capital. By taking this approach we find that the history of coal-fired electricity suggests there is a fluctuating floor to its future costs, which is determined by coal prices. Even if construction costs resumed a decreasing trend, the cost of coal-based electricity would drop for a while but eventually be determined by the price of coal, which fluctuates while showing no long-term trend.

Determinants of the Pace of Global Innovation in Energy Technologies

Understanding the factors driving innovation in energy technologies is of critical importance to mitigating climate change and addressing other energy-related global challenges. Low levels of innovation, measured in terms of energy patent filings, were noted in the 1980s and 90s as an issue of concern and were attributed to limited investment in public and private research and development (R&D). Here we build a comprehensive global database of energy patents covering the period 1970–2009, which is unique in its temporal and geographical scope. Analysis of the data reveals a recent, marked departure from historical trends. A sharp increase in rates of patenting has occurred over the last decade, particularly in renewable technologies, despite continued low levels of R&D funding. To solve the puzzle of fast innovation despite modest R&D increases, we develop a model that explains the nonlinear response observed in the empirical data of technological innovation to various types of investment. The model reveals a regular relationship between patents, R&D funding, and growing markets across technologies, and accurately predicts patenting rates at different stages of technological maturity and market development. We show quantitatively how growing markets have formed a vital complement to public R&D in driving innovative activity. These two forms of investment have each leveraged the effect of the other in driving patenting trends over long periods of time.

Scale and innovation in the energy sector: a focus on photovoltaics and nuclear fission

Energy technologies have a tendency to become locked in. Mature technologies are favoured due to their accumulated experience and low costs, preventing the entry of new competitors into the market. Public policies support technological evolution in the energy sector through research, development, demonstration and market transformation initiatives. These programmes can reduce CO2 emissions. Their scope, however, is limited by costs and therefore efficiency is critical. Based on a study of photovoltaics and nuclear fission, I show that the scale of an energy technology influences its responsiveness to policy interventions. Rapid innovation can be more effectively supported with limited funds for small scale technologies than for those restricted to the size of a large power plant. An energy infrastructure consisting of small scale technologies may more readily adapt to strict emissions regulations.

SYNTHESIS AND MAGNETIC PROPERTIES OF NI-AL2O3 THIN FILMS

Ni–Al2O3 nanocomposite thin films have been produced on sapphire, silicon, and silica substrates by a combination of sol-gel processing and partial reduction reactions. Transmission electron microscopy shows Ni particles, ∼20 nm in diameter, embedded in slightly larger diameter alumina grains. X-ray diffraction lattice parameter measurements suggest that the Ni is in a state of nonhydrostatic strain. Magneto-optical Kerr effect measurements indicate that the Ni particles in the films on the silicon and silica substrates support perpendicular magnetization. The saturation Kerr rotation increases linearly with film thickness to values above pure Ni and independent of reflectivity, indicating that the material is behaving as a Faraday rotator. The enhanced magnetic properties of the composite films are related to the nonhydrostatic strain developed in the Ni particles during fabrication. It is argued that the strains originate from the coefficient of thermal expansion mismatch between the film and substrate,...

Metal production requirements for rapid photovoltaics deployment

If global photovoltaics (PV) deployment grows rapidly, the required input materials need to be supplied at an increasing rate. In this paper, we quantify the effect of PV deployment levels on the scale of metals production. For example, we find that if cadmium telluride {copper indium gallium diselenide} PV accounts for more than 3% {10%} of electricity generation by 2030, the required growth rates for the production of indium and tellurium would exceed historically-observed production growth rates for a large set of metals. In contrast, even if crystalline silicon PV supplies all electricity in 2030, the required silicon production growth rate would fall within the historical range. More generally, this paper highlights possible constraints to the rate of scaling up metals production for some PV technologies, and outlines an approach to assessing projected metals growth requirements against an ensemble of past growth rates from across the metals production sector. The framework developed in this paper may be useful for evaluating the scalability of a wide range of materials and devices, to inform technology development in the laboratory, as well as public and private research investment.

Technology Choice and the Cost Reduction Potential of Photovoltaics

We use a combination of system component analyses and individual experience curves for crystalline silicon (x-Si) modules, thin-film (TF) modules, and the balance of system (BOS) components, to compare future growth scenarios for photovoltaics (PV). The growth rates of TF and x-Si technologies are varied, while overall PV growth is held constant at 30%. For each of these scenarios, we estimate the total investment required for PV to reach a break-even point with fossil fuel based generation; and we investigate the intrinsic/lowest achievable costs from an analysis of potential materials, processing, and efficiency improvements. Our results show that a high growth rate (50 to 70% per year) of new technologies with low intrinsic costs could decrease the total investment required to reach break-even by up to 70 billion USD, as compared to a scenario where x-Si continues to dominate the market. Furthermore, the system component analysis indicates that existing TF modules can reach the low cost levels assumed in the experience curve model. These results suggest that the future growth of photovoltaics (PV) is dependent on which PV technologies grow most rapidly. New, low intrinsic cost technologies that are successfully able to enter the market could dramatically increase the potential for PV to become a globally significant energy conversion technology within the next two decades

A simple method for orienting silk and other flexible fibres in transmission electron microscopy specimens

When microstructures are characterized by transmission electron microscopy (TEM), the interpretation of results is facilitated if the material can be sectioned in defined orientations. In the case of fibres, it is especially useful if transverse and longitudinal sections can be obtained reliably. Here we describe a procedure for orienting spider silk and other flexible fibres for TEM investigation. Prior to embedding in epoxy resin, the silk is wound around a notched support made from polyester film. No glue is required. After the silk and its supporting film have been embedded and the resin has been cured the film can be peeled away to reveal nearly perfectly orientated silk threads. Both transverse and longitudinal sections can then be cut with a microtome. The method can be extended to obtain sections at any intermediate orientation.