Jia Xing

Projections of SO2, NOx and carbonaceous aerosols emissions in Asia

Estimates of Asian emissions of air pollutants and carbonaceous aerosols and their mid-term projections have been changing significantly in the last years. The remote sensing community has shown that increase in NOx in Central East Asia is much stronger than any of the emission inventories or projections indicated so far. A number of studies reviewing older estimates appeared. Here, we review the key contributions and compare them to the most recent results of the GAINS model application for Asia and to the SRES projections used in the IPPC work. The recent projections indicate that the growth of emissions of SO2 in Asia should slow down significantly towards 2010 or even stabilize at the current level. For NOx, however, further growth is projected although it will be most likely slower that in the last decade, owing to introduction of measures in transport. Emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon and organic carbon) are expected to decline after 2010, largely due to reduced use of biofuels in residential sector and efficiency improvements. The estimates of these emissions are burdened with significantly larger uncertainties than SO2 and NOx; even for the year 2000 the differences in estimates between studies are up to a factor of 2.

Soil Acidification in China: Is Controlling SO2 Emissions Enough?

Facing challenges of increased energy consumption and related regional air pollution, China has been aggressively implementing flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and phasing out small inefficient units in the power sector in order to achieve the national goal of 10% reduction in sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) emissions from 2005 to 2010. In this paper, the effect of these measures on soil acidification is explored. An integrated methodology is used, combining emission inventory data, emission forecasts, air quality modeling, and ecological sensitivities indicated by critical load. National emissions of SO(2), oxides of nitrogen (NO(X)), particulate matter (PM), and ammonia (NH(3)) in 2005 were estimated to be 30.7, 19.6, 31.3, and 16.6 Mt, respectively. Implementation of existing policy will lead to reductions in SO(2) and PM emissions, while those of NO(X) and NH(3) will continue to rise, even under tentatively proposed control measures. In 2005, the critical load for soil acidification caused by sulfur (S) deposition was exceeded in 28% of the countrys territory, mainly in eastern and south-central China. The area in exceedance will decrease to 26% and 20% in 2010 and 2020, respectively, given implementation of current plans for emission reductions. However, the exceedance of the critical load for nitrogen (N, combining effects of eutrophication and acidification) will double from 2005 to 2020 due to increased NO(X) and NH(3) emissions. Combining the acidification effects of S and N, the benefits of SO(2) reductions during 2005-2010 will almost be negated by increased N emissions. Therefore abatement of N emissions (NO(X) and NH(3)) and deposition will be a major challenge to China, requiring policy development and technology investments. To mitigate acidification in the future, China needs a multipollutant control strategy that integrates measures to reduce S, N, and PM.

Impact assessment of ammonia emissions on inorganic aerosols in East China using response surface modeling technique.

Ammonia (NH(3)) is one important precursor of inorganic fine particles; however, knowledge of the impacts of NH(3) emissions on aerosol formation in China is very limited. In this study, we have developed Chinas NH(3) emission inventory for 2005 and applied the Response Surface Modeling (RSM) technique upon a widely used regional air quality model, the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). The purpose was to analyze the impacts of NH(3) emissions on fine particles for January, April, July, and October over east China, especially those most developed regions including the North China Plain (NCP), Yangtze River delta (YRD), and the Pearl River delta (PRD). The results indicate that NH(3) emissions contribute to 8-11% of PM(2.5) concentrations in these three regions, comparable with the contributions of SO(2) (9-11%) and NO(x) (5-11%) emissions. However, NH(3), SO(2), and NO(x) emissions present significant nonlinear impacts; the PM(2.5) responses to their emissions increase when more control efforts are taken mainly because of the transition between NH(3)-rich and NH(3)-poor conditions. Nitrate aerosol (NO(3)(-)) concentration is more sensitive to NO(x) emissions in NCP and YRD because of the abundant NH(3) emissions in the two regions, but it is equally or even more sensitive to NH(3) emissions in the PRD. In high NO(3)(-) pollution areas such as NCP and YRD, NH(3) is sufficiently abundant to neutralize extra nitric acid produced by an additional 25% of NO(x) emissions. The 90% increase of NH(3) emissions during 1990-2005 resulted in about 50-60% increases of NO(3)(-) and SO(4)(2-) aerosol concentrations. If no control measures are taken for NH(3) emissions, NO(3)(-) will be further enhanced in the future. Control of NH(3) emissions in winter, spring, and fall will benefit PM(2.5) reduction for most regions. However, to improve regional air quality and avoid exacerbating the acidity of aerosols, a more effective pathway is to adopt a multipollutant strategy to control NH(3) emissions in parallel with current SO(2) and NO(x) controls in China.

Ozone Trends Across the United States over a Period of Decreasing NOx and VOC Emissions

In this work, we evaluate ambient ozone trends at urban, suburban, and rural monitoring sites across the United States over a period of decreasing NOx and VOC emissions (1998-2013). We find that decreasing ozone trends generally occur in the summer, in less urbanized areas, and at the upper end of the ozone distribution. Conversely, increasing ozone trends generally occur in the winter, in more urbanized areas, and at the lower end of the ozone distribution. The 95(th) percentile ozone concentrations decreased at urban, suburban, and rural monitors by 1-2 ppb/yr in the summer and 0.5-1 ppb/yr in the winter. In the summer, there are both increasing and decreasing trends in fifth percentile ozone concentrations of less than 0.5 ppb/yr at urban and suburban monitors, while fifth percentile ozone concentrations at rural monitors decreased by up to 1 ppb/yr. In the winter, fifth percentile ozone concentrations generally increased by 0.1-1 ppb/yr. These results demonstrate the large scale success of U.S. control strategies targeted at decreasing peak ozone concentrations. In addition, they indicate that as anthropogenic NOx emissions have decreased, the ozone distribution has been compressed, leading to less spatial and temporal variability.

Effectiveness of national air pollution control policies on the air quality in metropolitan areas of China

Understanding the effectiveness of national air pollution controls is important for control policy design to improve the future air quality in China. This study evaluated the effectiveness of major national control policies implemented recently in China through a modeling analysis. The sulfur dioxide (SO2) control policy during the 11th Five Year Plan period (2006-2010) had succeeded in reducing the national SO2 emission in 2010 by 14% from its 2005 level, which correspondingly reduced ambient SO2 and sulfate (SO4(2-)) concentrations by 13%-15% and 8%-10% respectively over east China. The nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) control policy during the 12th Five Year Plan period (2011-2015) targets the reduction of the national NO(x) emission in 2015 by 10% on the basis of 2010. The simulation results suggest that such a reduction in NO(x) emission will reduce the ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrate (NO3(-)), 1-hr maxima ozone (O3) concentrations and total nitrogen deposition by 8%, 3%-14%, 2% and 2%-4%, respectively over east China. The application of new emission standards for power plants will further reduce the NO2, NO3(-), 1-hr maxima O(3 concentrations and total nitrogen deposition by 2%-4%, 1%-6%, 0-2% and 1%-2%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the inter-provincial impacts of emission reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta, which indicated the need to implement joint regional air pollution control.

Importance of tropospheric ClNO2 chemistry across the Northern Hemisphere

Laboratory and field experiments have revealed that uptake of dinitrogen pentoxide (N2O5) on aerosols containing chloride produces nitryl chloride (ClNO2) and nitric acid. We incorporate heterogeneous ClNO2 formation into the hemispheric Community Multiscale Air Quality model. This heterogeneous chemistry substantially enhances ClNO2 levels in several areas of the Northern Hemisphere and alters the composition of airborne reactive nitrogen, comprising more than 15% of monthly mean values in some areas. Model results suggest that this heterogeneous chemistry reduces monthly mean total nitrate by up to 25% and enhances monthly mean daily maximum 8 h ozone by up to 7.0 ppbv. The pathway also enhances hydroxyl radical by more than 20% in some locations which in turn increases sulfate and other secondary pollutants. The largest ClNO2 concentrations and impacts occur over China and Western Europe, two areas in which few relevant field measurements have been made.

Particulate matter pollution over China and the effects of control policies

China is one of the regions with highest PM2.5 concentration in the world. In this study, we review the spatio-temporal distribution of PM2.5 mass concentration and components in China and the effect of control measures on PM2.5 concentrations. Annual averaged PM2.5 concentrations in Central-Eastern China reached over 100μgm-3, in some regions even over 150μgm-3. In 2013, only 4.1% of the cities attained the annual average standard of 35μgm-3. Aitken mode particles tend to dominate the total particle number concentration. Depending on the location and time of the year, new particle formation (NPF) has been observed to take place between about 10 and 60% of the days. In most locations, NPF was less frequent at high PM mass loadings. The secondary inorganic particles (i.e., sulfate, nitrate and ammonium) ranked the highest fraction among the PM2.5 species, followed by organic matters (OM), crustal species and element carbon (EC), which accounted for 6-50%, 15-51%, 5-41% and 2-12% of PM2.5, respectively. In response to serious particulate matter pollution, China has taken aggressive steps to improve air quality in the last decade. As a result, the national emissions of primary PM2.5, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) have been decreasing since 2005, 2006, and 2011, respectively. The emission control policies implemented in the last decade could result in noticeable reduction in PM2.5 concentrations, contributing to the decreasing PM2.5 trends observed in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. However, the control policies issued before 2010 are insufficient to improve PM2.5 air quality notably in future. An optimal mix of energy-saving and end-of-pipe control measures should be implemented, more ambitious control policies for NMVOC and NH3 should be enforced, and special control measures in winter should be applied. 40-70% emissions should be cut off to attain PM2.5 standard.

Historical Trends in PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality during 1990-2010 across the Northern Hemisphere.

Background: Air quality across the northern hemisphere over the past two decades has witnessed dramatic changes, with continuous improvement in developed countries in North America and Europe, but a contrasting sharp deterioration in developing regions of Asia. Objective: This study investigates the historical trend in the long-term exposure to PM2.5 and PM2.5-related premature mortality (PM2.5-mortality) and its response to changes in emission that occurred during 1990–2010 across the northern hemisphere. Implications for future trends in human exposure to air pollution in both developed and developing regions of the world are discussed. Methods: We employed the integrated exposure–response model developed by Health Effects Institute to estimate the PM2.5-mortality. The 1990–2010 annual average PM2.5 concentrations were obtained from the simulations using the WRF-CMAQ model. Emission mitigation efficiencies of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3), and primary PM are estimated from the PM2.5-mortality responses to the emission variations. Results: Estimated PM2.5-mortalities in East Asia and South Asia increased by 21% and 85% respectively, from 866,000 and 578,000 in 1990, to 1,048,000 and 1,068,000 in 2010. PM2.5-mortalities in developed regions (i.e., Europe and high-income North America) decreased substantially by 67% and 58% respectively. Conclusions: Over the past two decades, correlations between population and PM2.5 have become weaker in Europe and North America due to air pollution controls but stronger in East Asia due to deteriorating air quality. Mitigation of primary PM appears to be the most efficient way for increasing health benefits (i.e., providing the largest mortality reduction per unit emissions). However, reductions in emissions of NH3 are needed to maximize the effectiveness of NOx emission controls. Citation: Wang J, Xing J, Mathur R, Pleim JE, Wang S, Hogrefe C, Gan CM, Wong DC, Hao J. 2017. Historical trends in PM2.5-related premature mortality during 1990–2010 across the northern hemisphere. Environ Health Perspect 125:400–408; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP298

Will PM control undermine China's efforts to reduce soil acidification?

Chinas strategies to control acidifying pollutants and particulate matter (PM) may be in conflict for soil acidification abatement. Acidifying pollutant emissions are estimated for 2005 and 2020 with anticipated control policies. PM emissions including base cations (BCs) are evaluated with two scenarios, a base case applying existing policy to 2020, and a control case including anticipated tightened measures. Depositions of sulfur (S), nitrogen (N) and BCs are simulated and their acidification risks are evaluated with critical load (CL). In 2005, the area exceeding CL covered 15.6% of mainland China, with total exceedance of 2.2 Mt S. These values decrease in the base scenario 2020, implying partial recovery from acidification. Under more realistic PM control, the respective estimates are 17.9% and 2.4 Mt S, indicating increased acidification risks due to abatement of acid-neutralizing BCs. Chinas anthropogenic PM abatement will have potentially stronger chemical implications for acidification than developed countries.

Multiple effects and uncertainties of emission control policies in China: Implications for public health, soil acidification, and global temperature

Policies to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China may have conflicting impacts on public health, soil acidification, and climate. Two scenarios for 2020, a base case without anticipated control measures and a more realistic case including such controls, are evaluated to quantify the effects of the policies on emissions and resulting environmental outcomes. Large benefits to public health can be expected from the controls, attributed mainly to reduced emissions of primary PM and gaseous PM precursors, and thus lower ambient concentrations of PM2.5. Approximately 4% of all-cause mortality in the country can be avoided (95% confidence interval: 1-7%), particularly in eastern and north-central China, regions with large population densities and high levels of PM2.5. Surface ozone levels, however, are estimated to increase in parts of those regions, despite NOX reductions. This implies VOC-limited conditions. Even with significant reduction of SO2 and NOX emissions, the controls will not significantly mitigate risks of soil acidification, judged by the exceedance levels of critical load (CL). This is due to the decrease in primary PM emissions, with the consequent reduction in deposition of alkaline base cations. Compared to 2005, even larger CL exceedances are found for both scenarios in 2020, implying that PM control may negate any recovery from soil acidification due to SO2 reductions. Noting large uncertainties, current polices to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China will not reduce climate warming, since controlling SO2 emissions also reduces reflective secondary aerosols. Black carbon emission is an important source of uncertainty concerning the effects of Chinese control policies on global temperature change. Given these conflicts, greater consideration should be paid to reconciling varied environmental objectives, and emission control strategies should target not only criteria pollutants but also species such as VOCs and CO2.