Jianping Xue

A Probabilistic Arsenic Exposure Assessment for Children who Contact CCA-Treated Playsets and Decks, Part 1: Model Methodology, Variability Results, and Model Evaluation

Concerns have been raised regarding the safety of young children who may contact arsenic residues while playing on and around chromated copper arsenate (CCA)-treated wood playsets and decks. Although CCA registrants voluntarily canceled the production of treated wood for residential use in 2003, the potential for exposure from existing structures and surrounding soil still poses concerns. The EPAs Office of Research and Development developed and applied the probabilistic Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation model for wood preservatives (SHEDS-Wood) to estimate childrens absorbed dose of arsenic from CCA. Skin contact with, and nondietary ingestion of, arsenic in soil and wood residues were considered for the population of children in the United States who frequently contact CCA-treated wood playsets and decks. Model analyses were conducted to assess the range in population estimates and the impact of potential mitigation strategies such as the use of sealants and hand washing after play events. The results show predicted central values for lifetime annual average daily dose values for arsenic ranging from 10(-6) to 10(-5) mg/kg/day, with predicted 95th percentiles on the order of 10(-5) mg/kg/day. There were several orders of magnitude between lower and upper percentiles. Residue ingestion via hand-to-mouth contact was determined to be the most significant exposure route for most scenarios. Results of several alternative scenarios were similar to baseline results, except for the scenario with greatly reduced residue concentrations through hypothetical wood sealant applications; in this scenario, exposures were lower, and the soil ingestion route dominated. SHEDS-Wood estimates are typically consistent with, or within the range of, other CCA exposure models.

A Probabilistic Arsenic Exposure Assessment for Children Who Contact Chromated Copper Arsenate (CCA)‐Treated Playsets and Decks, Part 2: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses

A probabilistic model (SHEDS-Wood) was developed to examine childrens exposure and dose to chromated copper arsenate (CCA)-treated wood, as described in Part 1 of this two-part article. This Part 2 article discusses sensitivity and uncertainty analyses conducted to assess the key model inputs and areas of needed research for childrens exposure to CCA-treated playsets and decks. The following types of analyses were conducted: (1) sensitivity analyses using a percentile scaling approach and multiple stepwise regression; and (2) uncertainty analyses using the bootstrap and two-stage Monte Carlo techniques. The five most important variables, based on both sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, were: wood surface residue-to-skin transfer efficiency; wood surface residue levels; fraction of hand surface area mouthed per mouthing event; average fraction of nonresidential outdoor time a child plays on/around CCA-treated public playsets; and frequency of hand washing. In general, there was a factor of 8 for the 5th and 95th percentiles and a factor of 4 for the 50th percentile in the uncertainty of predicted population dose estimates due to parameter uncertainty. Data were available for most of the key model inputs identified with sensitivity and uncertainty analyses; however, there were few or no data for some key inputs. To evaluate and improve the accuracy of model results, future measurement studies should obtain longitudinal time-activity diary information on children, spatial and temporal measurements of residue and soil concentrations on or near CCA-treated playsets and decks, and key exposure factors. Future studies should also address other sources of uncertainty in addition to parameter uncertainty, such as scenario and model uncertainty.

Modeled estimates of soil and dust ingestion rates for children.

Daily soil/dust ingestion rates typically used in exposure and risk assessments are based on tracer element studies, which have a number of limitations and do not separate contributions from soil and dust. This article presents an alternate approach of modeling soil and dust ingestion via hand and object mouthing of children, using EPAs SHEDS model. Results for children 3 to <6 years old show that mean and 95th percentile total ingestion of soil and dust values are 68 and 224 mg/day, respectively; mean from soil ingestion, hand-to-mouth dust ingestion, and object-to-mouth dust ingestion are 41 mg/day, 20 mg/day, and 7 mg/day, respectively. In general, hand-to-mouth soil ingestion was the most important pathway, followed by hand-to-mouth dust ingestion, then object-to-mouth dust ingestion. The variability results are most sensitive to inputs on surface loadings, soil-skin adherence, hand mouthing frequency, and hand washing frequency. The predicted total soil and dust ingestion fits a lognormal distribution with geometric mean = 35.7 and geometric standard deviation = 3.3. There are two uncertainty distributions, one below the 20th percentile and the other above. Modeled uncertainties ranged within a factor of 3-30. Mean modeled estimates for soil and dust ingestion are consistent with past information but lower than the central values recommended in the 2008 EPA Child-Specific Exposure Factors Handbook. This new modeling approach, which predicts soil and dust ingestion by pathway, source type, population group, geographic location, and other factors, offers a better characterization of exposures relevant to health risk assessments as compared to using a single value.

Biologically based modeling of multimedia, multipathway, multiroute population exposures to arsenic

This article presents an integrated, biologically based, source-to-dose assessment framework for modeling multimedia/multipathway/multiroute exposures to arsenic. Case studies demonstrating this framework are presented for three US counties (Hunderton County, NJ; Pima County, AZ; and Franklin County, OH), representing substantially different conditions of exposure. The approach taken utilizes the Modeling ENvironment for TOtal Risk studies (MENTOR) in an implementation that incorporates and extends the approach pioneered by Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS), in conjunction with a number of available databases, including NATA, NHEXAS, CSFII, and CHAD, and extends modeling techniques that have been developed in recent years. Model results indicate that, in most cases, the food intake pathway is the dominant contributor to total exposure and dose to arsenic. Model predictions are evaluated qualitatively by comparing distributions of predicted total arsenic amounts in urine with those derived using biomarker measurements from the NHEXAS — Region V study: the population distributions of urinary total arsenic levels calculated through MENTOR and from the NHEXAS measurements are in general qualitative agreement. Observed differences are due to various factors, such as interindividual variation in arsenic metabolism in humans, that are not fully accounted for in the current model implementation but can be incorporated in the future, in the open framework of MENTOR. The present study demonstrates that integrated source-to-dose modeling for arsenic can not only provide estimates of the relative contributions of multipathway exposure routes to the total exposure estimates, but can also estimate internal target tissue doses for speciated organic and inorganic arsenic, which can eventually be used to improve evaluation of health risks associated with exposures to arsenic from multiple sources, routes, and pathways.

A meta-analysis of children's object-to-mouth frequency data for estimating non-dietary ingestion exposure.

To improve estimates of non-dietary ingestion in probabilistic exposure modeling, a meta-analysis of childrens object-to-mouth frequency was conducted using data from seven available studies representing 438 participants and ∼1500 h of behavior observation. The analysis represents the first comprehensive effort to fit object-to-mouth frequency variability and uncertainty distributions by indoor/outdoor location and by age groups recommended by the US Environmental Protection Agency for assessing childhood exposures. Weibull distributions best fit the observed data from studies with no statistical differences, and are presented by study, age group, and location. As age increases, both indoor and outdoor object-to-mouth frequencies decrease. Object-to-mouth frequency is significantly greater indoors (2–32 contacts/h) than outdoors (average 1–9 contacts/h). This paper compares results to a similar hand-to-mouth frequency meta-analysis. Children who tend to mouth hands indoors also tend to mouth hands outdoors; children who tend to mouth objects indoors tend to mouth objects outdoors. However, children who tend to mouth objects do not necessarily have a tendency to mouth hands. Unlike for hand-to-mouth frequency, a statistical difference was found among the various studies for object-to-mouth frequency. This could be due to different definitions for object mouthing across the studies considered. The analysis highlights the need for additional object-to-mouth data (indoors and especially outdoors) for various age groups using standardized collection and analysis.

Methodologies for estimating cumulative human exposures to current-use pyrethroid pesticides

We estimated cumulative residential pesticide exposures for a group of nine young children (4–6 years) using three different methodologies developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency and compared the results with estimates derived from measured urinary metabolite concentrations. The Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for Residential Exposure Assessment are intended to provide a screening-level assessment to estimate exposure for regulatory purposes. Nonetheless, dermal exposure estimates were typically lower from the SOP (1–1300 nmol/day) than from SHEDS (5–19,000 nmol/day) or any of the four different approaches for estimating dermal exposure using the Draft Protocol for Measuring Childrens Non-Occupational Exposure to Pesticides by all Relevant Pathways (Draft Protocol) (5–11,000 nmol/day). Indirect ingestion exposure estimates ranged from 0.02 to 21.5 nmol/day for the SOP, 0.5 to 188 nmol/day for SHEDS, and 0 to 3.38 nmol/day for the Draft Protocol. Estimates of total absorbed dose ranged from 3 to 37 nmol/day for the SOPs, 0.5 to 100 nmol/day for SHEDS, and 1 to 216 nmol/day for the Draft Protocol. The concentrations estimated using the Draft Protocol and SHEDS showed strong, positive relationships with the 3-phenoxybenzoic acid metabolite measured in the childrens urine samples (R2=0.90 for the Draft Protocol; R2=0.92 for SHEDS). Analysis of different approaches for estimating dermal exposure suggested that the approach assuming an even distribution of pesticide residue on the childs body was most reasonable. With all three methodologies providing reasonable estimates of exposure and dose, selection should depend on the available data and the objectives of the analysis. Further research would be useful to better understand how best to estimate dermal exposure for children and what exposure factors (e.g., activities, transfer coefficients, measurement techniques) are most relevant in making dermal exposure estimates.

Modeling Joint Exposures and Health Outcomes for Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Case of Radon and Smoking

Community-based cumulative risk assessment requires characterization of exposures to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors, with consideration of how the non-chemical stressors may influence risks from chemical stressors. Residential radon provides an interesting case example, given its large attributable risk, effect modification due to smoking, and significant variability in radon concentrations and smoking patterns. In spite of this fact, no study to date has estimated geographic and sociodemographic patterns of both radon and smoking in a manner that would allow for inclusion of radon in community-based cumulative risk assessment. In this study, we apply multi-level regression models to explain variability in radon based on housing characteristics and geological variables, and construct a regression model predicting housing characteristics using U.S. Census data. Multi-level regression models of smoking based on predictors common to the housing model allow us to link the exposures. We estimate county-average lifetime lung cancer risks from radon ranging from 0.15 to 1.8 in 100, with high-risk clusters in areas and for subpopulations with high predicted radon and smoking rates. Our findings demonstrate the viability of screening-level assessment to characterize patterns of lung cancer risk from radon, with an approach that can be generalized to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors.

EPA's SHEDS-multimedia model: Children's cumulative pyrethroid exposure estimates and evaluation against NHANES biomarker data

The U.S. EPAs SHEDS-Multimedia model was applied to enhance the understanding of childrens exposures and doses to multiple pyrethroid pesticides, including major contributing chemicals and pathways. This paper presents combined dietary and residential exposure estimates and cumulative doses for seven commonly used pyrethroids, and comparisons of model evaluation results with NHANES biomarker data for 3-PBA and DCCA metabolites. Model input distributions were fit to publicly available pesticide usage survey data, NHANES, and other studies, then SHEDS-Multimedia was applied to estimate total pyrethroid exposures and doses for 3-5 year olds for one year variability simulations. For dose estimations we used a pharmacokinetic model and two approaches for simulating dermal absorption. SHEDS-Multimedia predictions compared well to NHANES biomarker data: ratios of 3-PBA observed data to SHEDS-Multimedia modeled results were 0.88, 0.51, 0.54 and 1.02 for mean, median, 95th, and 99th percentiles, respectively; for DCCA, the ratios were 0.82, 0.53, 0.56, and 0.94. Modeled time-averaged cumulative absorbed dose of the seven pyrethroids was 3.1 nmol/day (versus 8.4 nmol/day for adults) in the general population (residential pyrethroid use and non-use homes) and 6.7 nmol/day (versus 10.5 nmol/day for adults) in the simulated residential pyrethroid use population. For the general population, contributions to modeled cumulative dose by chemical were permethrin (60%), cypermethrin (22%), and cyfluthrin (16%); for residential use homes, contributions were cypermethrin (49%), permethrin (29%), and cyfluthrin (17%). The primary exposure route for 3-5 year olds in the simulated residential use population was non-dietary ingestion exposure; whereas for the simulated general population, dietary exposure was the primary exposure route. Below the 95th percentile, the major exposure pathway was dietary for the general population; non-dietary ingestion was the major pathway starting below the 70th percentile for the residential use population. The new dermal absorption methodology considering surface loading had some impact, but did not change the order of key pathways.

Modeling tribal exposures to methyl mercury from fish consumption.

Exposure assessment and risk management considerations for tribal fish consumption are different than for the general U.S. population because of higher fish intake from subsistence fishing and/or from unique cultural practices. This research summarizes analyses of available data and methodologies for estimating tribal fish consumption exposures to methyl mercury (MeHg). Large MeHg fish tissue data sets from the Environmental Protections Agencys (EPAs) Office of Water, USGSs EMMMA program, and other data sources, were integrated, analyzed, and combined with fish intake (consumption) data for exposure analyses using EPAs SHEDS-Dietary model. Results were mapped with GIS tools to depict spatial distributions of the MeHg in fish tissues and fish consumption exposure patterns. Contribution analyses indicates the major sources for those exposures, such as type and length of fish, geographical distribution (water bodies), and dietary exposure patterns. Sensitivity analyses identify the key variables and exposure pathways. Our results show that MeHg exposure of tribal populations from fish are about 3 to 10 times higher than the US general population and that exposure poses potential health risks. The estimated risks would be reduced as much as 50%, especially for high percentiles, just by avoiding consumption of fish species with higher MeHg concentrations such as walleye and bowfin, even without changing total fish intake. These exposure assessment methods and tools can help inform decisions regarding meal sizes and frequency, types of fish and water bodies to avoid, and other factors to minimize exposures and potential health risks from contaminated fish on tribal lands.

Analyses of School Commuting Data for Exposure Modeling Purposes

Human exposure models often make the simplifying assumption that school children attend school in the same census tract where they live. This paper analyzes that assumption and provides information on the temporal and spatial distributions associated with school commuting. The data were obtained using Oak Ridge National Laboratorys LandScan USA population distribution model applied to Philadelphia, PA. It is a high-resolution model used to allocate individual school-aged children to both a home and school location, and to devise a minimum-time home-to-school commuting path (called a trace) between the two locations. LandScan relies heavily on Geographic Information System (GIS) data. With respect to school children attending school in their home census tract, the vast majority does not in Philadelphia. Our analyses found that: (1) about 32% of the students walk across two or more census tracts going to school and 40% of them walk across four or more census blocks; and (2) 60% drive across four or more census tracts going to school and 50% drive across 10 or more census blocks. We also find that: (3) using a 5-min commuting time interval — as opposed to the modeled “trace” — results in misclassifying the “actual” path taken in 90% of the census blocks, 70% of the block groups, and 50% of the tracts; (4) a 1-min time interval is needed to reasonably resolve time spent in the various census unit designations; and (5) approximately 50% of both the homes and schools of Philadelphia school children are located within 160 m of highly traveled roads, and 64% of the schools are located within 200 m. These findings are very important when modeling school childrens exposures, especially, when ascertaining the impacts of near-roadway concentrations on their total daily body burden. As many school children also travel along these streets and roadways to get to school, a majority of children in Philadelphia are in mobile source-dominated locations most of the day. We hypothesize that exposures of school children in Philadelphia to benzene and particulate matter will be much higher than if home and school locations and commuting paths at a 1-min time resolution are not explicitly modeled in an exposure assessment. Undertaking such an assessment will be the topic of a future paper.