Joachim H. Ix

Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality

IMPORTANCE The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event. OBJECTIVE To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR. RESULTS The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2) was 99% (95% CI, 95%-100%) for estimated GFR change of −57%, was 83% (95% CI, 71%-93%) for estimated GFR change of −40%, and was 64% (95% CI, 52%-77%) for estimated GFR change of −30% vs 18% (95% CI, 15%-22%) for estimated GFR change of 0%. Corresponding mortality risks were 77% (95% CI, 71%-82%), 60% (95% CI, 56%-63%), and 50% (95% CI, 47%-52%) vs 32% (95% CI, 31%-33%), showing a similar but weaker pattern. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Declines in estimated GFR smaller than a doubling of serum creatinine concentration occurred more commonly and were strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in estimated GFR (such as a 30% reduction over 2 years) as an alternative end point for CKD progression.

The Associations of Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 and Uncarboxylated Matrix Gla Protein With Mortality in Coronary Artery Disease: The Heart and Soul Study

BACKGROUND Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23), uncarboxylated matrix Gla protein (ucMGP), and fetuin-A are regulators of mineral metabolism and inhibitors of vascular calcification. Whether circulating levels of each are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events or mortality in populations without end-stage renal disease is unknown. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the associations of FGF23, ucMGP, and fetuin-A with mortality and CVD events. DESIGN Observational study. SETTING 12 outpatient clinics in the San Francisco Bay area. PATIENTS 833 outpatients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD), recruited from 11 September 2000 to 20 December 2002. MEASUREMENTS Fibroblast growth factor 23, ucMGP, and fetuin-A concentrations were measured at baseline. Participants were followed until 1 December 2008 for mortality and CVD events. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 6.0 years, 220 participants died and 182 had CVD events. Compared with participants with FGF-23 levels in the lowest tertile, those in the highest tertile had 2-fold greater risk for mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 2.15 [95% CI, 1.43 to 3.24]) and CVD events (HR, 1.83 [CI, 1.15 to 2.91]) after adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors, C-reactive protein levels, and kidney function. The highest ucMGP tertile was associated with lower mortality risk (HR, 0.48 [CI, 0.31 to 0.75]) and showed a nonsignificant trend toward lower CVD event risk by tertile analysis (HR, 0.65 [CI, 0.40 to 1.05])-an association that was significant when modeled continuously (P = 0.029). No significant association of fetuin-A with mortality (HR, 0.84 [CI, 0.55 to 1.27]) or CVD events (HR, 0.99 [CI, 0.64 to 1.55]) was observed. LIMITATION Participants had prevalent CAD. CONCLUSION In outpatients with stable CAD, higher FGF23 and lower ucMGP levels are independently associated with mortality and CVD events. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE American Heart Association.

Intensive vs Standard Blood Pressure Control and Cardiovascular Disease Outcomes in Adults Aged ≥75 Years: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE The appropriate treatment target for systolic blood pressure (SBP) in older patients with hypertension remains uncertain. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the effects of intensive (<120 mm Hg) compared with standard (<140 mm Hg) SBP targets in persons aged 75 years or older with hypertension but without diabetes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A multicenter, randomized clinical trial of patients aged 75 years or older who participated in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT). Recruitment began on October 20, 2010, and follow-up ended on August 20, 2015. INTERVENTIONS Participants were randomized to an SBP target of less than 120 mm Hg (intensive treatment group, n = 1317) or an SBP target of less than 140 mm Hg (standard treatment group, n = 1319). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary cardiovascular disease outcome was a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome not resulting in a myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, nonfatal acute decompensated heart failure, and death from cardiovascular causes. All-cause mortality was a secondary outcome. RESULTS Among 2636 participants (mean age, 79.9 years; 37.9% women), 2510 (95.2%) provided complete follow-up data. At a median follow-up of 3.14 years, there was a significantly lower rate of the primary composite outcome (102 events in the intensive treatment group vs 148 events in the standard treatment group; hazard ratio [HR], 0.66 [95% CI, 0.51-0.85]) and all-cause mortality (73 deaths vs 107 deaths, respectively; HR, 0.67 [95% CI, 0.49-0.91]). The overall rate of serious adverse events was not different between treatment groups (48.4% in the intensive treatment group vs 48.3% in the standard treatment group; HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.89-1.11]). Absolute rates of hypotension were 2.4% in the intensive treatment group vs 1.4% in the standard treatment group (HR, 1.71 [95% CI, 0.97-3.09]), 3.0% vs 2.4%, respectively, for syncope (HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 0.76-2.00]), 4.0% vs 2.7% for electrolyte abnormalities (HR, 1.51 [95% CI, 0.99-2.33]), 5.5% vs 4.0% for acute kidney injury (HR, 1.41 [95% CI, 0.98-2.04]), and 4.9% vs 5.5% for injurious falls (HR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.65-1.29]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among ambulatory adults aged 75 years or older, treating to an SBP target of less than 120 mm Hg compared with an SBP target of less than 140 mm Hg resulted in significantly lower rates of fatal and nonfatal major cardiovascular events and death from any cause. TRIAL REGISTRATION clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01206062.

Association of Cystatin C With Mortality, Cardiovascular Events, and Incident Heart Failure Among Persons With Coronary Heart Disease Data From the Heart and Soul Study

Background— Serum creatinine and related estimating equations predict cardiovascular events and mortality among persons with coronary heart disease (CHD). Cystatin C is a novel and sensitive endogenous marker of kidney function. Whether cystatin C concentrations are associated with adverse events among ambulatory persons with CHD is unknown. Methods and Results— Nine hundred ninety ambulatory persons with CHD were categorized into quartiles of serum cystatin C at inception, with ≤0.91 mg/L constituting the lowest quartile (I) and ≥1.30 mg/L constituting the highest (IV). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated time to all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events (composite of CHD death, myocardial infarction, and stroke), and incident heart failure. After a median follow-up of 37 months, 132 participants (13%) died, 101 (10%) had cardiovascular events, and 57 (7%) had incident heart failure. Compared with participants in the lowest cystatin C quartile, those in the highest quartile were at increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 3.6; 95% CI, 1.8 to 7.0), cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.0 to 3.8), and incident heart failure (hazard ratio, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.0 to 6.9) in analyses adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Cystatin C in the highest quartile predicted similar risk for these outcomes among participants with lower (≤60 mL/min per 1.73 m2) or higher estimated glomerular filtration rate and among participants with or without microalbuminuria. Conclusions— High cystatin C concentrations predict substantial increased risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and incident heart failure among ambulatory persons with CHD. This risk is not completely captured by measures of kidney function routinely used in clinical practice.

Association of Serum Phosphate with Vascular and Valvular Calcification in Moderate CKD

Within the normal range, higher serum phosphate concentrations are associated with cardiovascular events and mortality in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and in those with normal kidney function. Experimental models suggest that phosphate has a direct calcifying effect on vascular smooth muscle. We examined associations of serum phosphate concentrations with vascular and valvular calcification in 439 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis who had moderate CKD and no clinical cardiovascular disease. Serum phosphate concentrations were within the normal range (2.5 to 4.5 mg/dl) in 95% of study participants. The prevalence of calcification in the coronary arteries, descending thoracic aorta, aortic valve, and mitral valve was 67, 49, 25, and 20%, respectively, measured by electron-beam or multi-detector row computed tomography. After adjustment for demographics and estimated GFR, each 1-mg/dl increment in serum phosphate concentration was associated with a 21% (P = 0.002), 33% (P = 0.001), 25% (P = 0.16), and 62% (P = 0.007) greater prevalence of coronary artery, thoracic, aortic valve, and mitral valve calcification, respectively. Adjustment for traditional risk factors for atherosclerosis, parathyroid hormone, or 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D levels did not alter these associations. In conclusion, higher serum phosphate concentrations, although still within the normal range, are associated with a greater prevalence of vascular and valvular calcification in people with moderate CKD. It remains to be determined whether lowering phosphate concentrations will impact calcification risk in the setting of kidney disease.

Association between human fetuin-A and the metabolic syndrome: data from the Heart and Soul Study.

Background— Fetuin-A is a multifunctional hepatic secretory protein that inhibits the action of insulin in experimental animals. We evaluated the association between human serum fetuin-A and the metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a cohort of persons with coronary artery disease. Methods and Results— We defined MetS by the National Cholesterol Education Program criteria among 711 nondiabetic outpatients with coronary artery disease. The mean age was 67 years, and 82% were male. We divided participants into quartiles by serum fetuin-A concentrations. A total of 45% of participants (80 of 177) in the highest quartile of fetuin-A had MetS compared with 24% of participants (42 of 177) in the lowest quartile (odds ratio, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.7 to 4.2; P<0.001). This association persisted after adjustment for potential confounding variables, including hypertension, body mass index, and inflammatory biomarkers (adjusted odds ratio, 2.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 3.5; P=0.02). Higher fetuin-A quartiles were also strongly and independently associated with higher low-density lipoprotein, non–high-density lipoprotein (HDL), and triglyceride concentrations and lower HDL concentrations (all P<0.01). Conclusions— Higher human fetuin-A concentrations are strongly associated with MetS and an atherogenic lipid profile. Future studies should evaluate whether fetuin-A predicts coronary artery disease risk.

Calcium Density of Coronary Artery Plaque and Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Events

IMPORTANCE Coronary artery calcium (CAC), measured by computed tomography (CT), has strong predictive value for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The standard CAC score is the Agatston, which is weighted upward for greater calcium density. However, some data suggest increased plaque calcium density may be protective for CVD. OBJECTIVE To determine the independent associations of CAC volume and CAC density with incident CVD events. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Multicenter, prospective observational MESA study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), conducted at 6 US field centers of 3398 men and women from 4 race/ethnicity groups; non-Hispanic white, African American, Hispanic, and Chinese. Participants were aged 45-84 years, free of known CVD at baseline, had CAC greater than 0 on their baseline CT, and were followed up through October 2010. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and all CVD events RESULTS During a median of 7.6 years of follow-up, there were 175 CHD events and an additional 90 other CVD events for a total of 265 CVD events. With both lnCAC volume and CAC density scores in the same multivariable model, the lnCAC volume score showed an independent association with incident CHD, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.81 (95% CI, 1.47-2.23) per standard deviation (SD = 1.6) increase, absolute risk increase 6.1 per 1000 person-years, and for CVD an HR of 1.68 (95% CI, 1.42-1.98) per SD increase, absolute risk increase 7.9 per 1000 person-years. Conversely, the CAC density score showed an independent inverse association, with an HR of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.58-0.91) per SD (SD = 0.7) increase for CHD, absolute risk decrease 5.5 per 1000 person-years, and an HR of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.60-0.85) per SD increase for CVD, absolute risk decrease 8.2 per 1000 person years. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed significantly improved risk prediction with the addition of the density score to a model containing the volume score for both CHD and CVD. In the intermediate CVD risk group, the area under the curve for CVD increased from 0.53 (95% CI, 0.48-0.59) to 0.59 (95% CI, 0.54-0.64), P = .02. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE CAC volume was positively and independently associated with CHD and CVD risk. At any level of CAC volume, CAC density was inversely and significantly associated with CHD and CVD risk. The role of CAC density should be considered when evaluating current CAC scoring systems.

Fetuin-A and Incident Diabetes Mellitus in Older Persons

CONTEXT Fetuin-A is a hepatic secretory protein that binds the insulin receptor and inhibits insulin action in vitro. In prior cross-sectional studies in humans, higher fetuin-A levels were associated with insulin resistance. However, the longitudinal association of fetuin-A with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus is unknown. OBJECTIVE To determine whether fetuin-A levels are associated with incident diabetes in older persons. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Observational study among 3075 well-functioning persons aged 70 to 79 years. In this case-cohort study, we retrospectively measured fetuin-A levels in baseline serum among 406 randomly selected participants without prevalent diabetes, and all participants who developed incident diabetes mellitus during a 6-year follow-up (to August 31, 2005). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Incident diabetes mellitus. RESULTS Incident diabetes developed in 135 participants (10.1 cases/1000 person-years). Participants with fetuin-A levels within the highest tertile (> 0.97 g/L) had an increased risk of incident diabetes (13.3 cases/1000 person-years) compared with participants in the lowest tertile (< or = 0.76 g/L) (6.5 cases/1000 person-years) in models adjusted for age, sex, race, waist circumference, body weight, physical activity, blood pressure level, fasting glucose level, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration, triglyceride concentration, and C-reactive protein level (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-4.53; P = .007). The association was not affected by adipocytokine levels but was moderately attenuated by adjustment for visceral adiposity (adjusted hazard ratio of highest vs lowest tertile 1.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.98-3.05; P = .06). CONCLUSION Among well-functioning older persons, serum fetuin-A is associated with incident diabetes, independent of other markers of insulin resistance.

Fibroblast growth factor-23 and death, heart failure, and cardiovascular events in community-living individuals: CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study).

OBJECTIVES This study sought to determine the association of fibroblast growth factor (FGF)-23 with death, heart failure (HF), and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population, as well as the influence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in this setting. BACKGROUND FGF-23 increases renal phosphorus excretion and inhibits vitamin D activation. In end-stage renal disease, high FGF-23 levels are associated with mortality. The association of FGF-23 with death, HF, and CVD in the general population, and the influence of CKD in this setting, are unknown. METHODS Plasma FGF-23 was measured in 3,107 community-living persons ≥ 65 years of age in 1996 and 1997, and participants were followed through 2008. HF and CVD events were adjudicated by a panel of experts. Associations of FGF-23 with each outcome were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models, and we tested whether associations differed by CKD status. RESULTS Both lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and higher urine albumin to creatinine ratios were associated with high FGF-23 at baseline. During 10.5 years (median) follow-up, there were 1,730 deaths, 697 incident HF events, and 797 incident CVD events. Although high FGF-23 concentrations were associated with each outcome in combined analyses, the associations were consistently stronger for those with CKD (p interactions all <0.006). In the CKD group (n = 1,128), the highest FGF-23 quartile had adjusted hazards ratios (HR) of 1.87 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.47 to 2.38) for all-cause death, 1.94 (95% CI: 1.32 to 2.83) for incident HF, and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.02 to 2.18) for incident CVD events compared with the lowest quartile. Corresponding HRs in those without CKD (n = 1,979) were 1.29 (95% CI: 1.05 to 1.59), 1.37 (95% CI: 0.99 to 1.89), and 1.07 (95% CI: 0.79 to 1.45). CONCLUSIONS FGF-23, a hormone involved in phosphorous and vitamin D homeostasis, is independently associated with all-cause death and incident HF in community-living older persons. These associations appear stronger in persons with CKD.

Metabolomics Reveals Signature of Mitochondrial Dysfunction in Diabetic Kidney Disease

Diabetic kidney disease is the leading cause of ESRD, but few biomarkers of diabetic kidney disease are available. This study used gas chromatography-mass spectrometry to quantify 94 urine metabolites in screening and validation cohorts of patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) and CKD(DM+CKD), in patients with DM without CKD (DM-CKD), and in healthy controls. Compared with levels in healthy controls, 13 metabolites were significantly reduced in the DM+CKD cohorts (P≤0.001), and 12 of the 13 remained significant when compared with the DM-CKD cohort. Many of the differentially expressed metabolites were water-soluble organic anions. Notably, organic anion transporter-1 (OAT1) knockout mice expressed a similar pattern of reduced levels of urinary organic acids, and human kidney tissue from patients with diabetic nephropathy demonstrated lower gene expression of OAT1 and OAT3. Analysis of bioinformatics data indicated that 12 of the 13 differentially expressed metabolites are linked to mitochondrial metabolism and suggested global suppression of mitochondrial activity in diabetic kidney disease. Supporting this analysis, human diabetic kidney sections expressed less mitochondrial protein, urine exosomes from patients with diabetes and CKD had less mitochondrial DNA, and kidney tissues from patients with diabetic kidney disease had lower gene expression of PGC1α (a master regulator of mitochondrial biogenesis). We conclude that urine metabolomics is a reliable source for biomarkers of diabetic complications, and our data suggest that renal organic ion transport and mitochondrial function are dysregulated in diabetic kidney disease.