Kenneth J. Mukamal

Diabetes Mellitus, Fasting Glucose, and Risk of Cause-Specific Death

BACKGROUND The extent to which diabetes mellitus or hyperglycemia is related to risk of death from cancer or other nonvascular conditions is uncertain. METHODS We calculated hazard ratios for cause-specific death, according to baseline diabetes status or fasting glucose level, from individual-participant data on 123,205 deaths among 820,900 people in 97 prospective studies. RESULTS After adjustment for age, sex, smoking status, and body-mass index, hazard ratios among persons with diabetes as compared with persons without diabetes were as follows: 1.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.71 to 1.90) for death from any cause, 1.25 (95% CI, 1.19 to 1.31) for death from cancer, 2.32 (95% CI, 2.11 to 2.56) for death from vascular causes, and 1.73 (95% CI, 1.62 to 1.85) for death from other causes. Diabetes (vs. no diabetes) was moderately associated with death from cancers of the liver, pancreas, ovary, colorectum, lung, bladder, and breast. Aside from cancer and vascular disease, diabetes (vs. no diabetes) was also associated with death from renal disease, liver disease, pneumonia and other infectious diseases, mental disorders, nonhepatic digestive diseases, external causes, intentional self-harm, nervous-system disorders, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Hazard ratios were appreciably reduced after further adjustment for glycemia measures, but not after adjustment for systolic blood pressure, lipid levels, inflammation or renal markers. Fasting glucose levels exceeding 100 mg per deciliter (5.6 mmol per liter), but not levels of 70 to 100 mg per deciliter (3.9 to 5.6 mmol per liter), were associated with death. A 50-year-old with diabetes died, on average, 6 years earlier than a counterpart without diabetes, with about 40% of the difference in survival attributable to excess nonvascular deaths. CONCLUSIONS In addition to vascular disease, diabetes is associated with substantial premature death from several cancers, infectious diseases, external causes, intentional self-harm, and degenerative disorders, independent of several major risk factors. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.).

Association of alcohol consumption with selected cardiovascular disease outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective To conduct a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis of studies assessing the effect of alcohol consumption on multiple cardiovascular outcomes. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources A search of Medline (1950 through September 2009) and Embase (1980 through September 2009) supplemented by manual searches of bibliographies and conference proceedings. Inclusion criteria Prospective cohort studies on the association between alcohol consumption and overall mortality from cardiovascular disease, incidence of and mortality from coronary heart disease, and incidence of and mortality from stroke. Studies reviewed Of 4235 studies reviewed for eligibility, quality, and data extraction, 84 were included in the final analysis. Results The pooled adjusted relative risks for alcohol drinkers relative to non-drinkers in random effects models for the outcomes of interest were 0.75 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.80) for cardiovascular disease mortality (21 studies), 0.71 (0.66 to 0.77) for incident coronary heart disease (29 studies), 0.75 (0.68 to 0.81) for coronary heart disease mortality (31 studies), 0.98 (0.91 to 1.06) for incident stroke (17 studies), and 1.06 (0.91 to 1.23) for stroke mortality (10 studies). Dose-response analysis revealed that the lowest risk of coronary heart disease mortality occurred with 1–2 drinks a day, but for stroke mortality it occurred with ≤1 drink per day. Secondary analysis of mortality from all causes showed lower risk for drinkers compared with non-drinkers (relative risk 0.87 (0.83 to 0.92)). Conclusions Light to moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a reduced risk of multiple cardiovascular outcomes.

Effect of alcohol consumption on biological markers associated with risk of coronary heart disease: systematic review and meta-analysis of interventional studies

Objective To systematically review interventional studies of the effects of alcohol consumption on 21 biological markers associated with risk of coronary heart disease in adults without known cardiovascular disease. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Medline (1950 to October 2009) and Embase (1980 to October 2009) without limits. Study selection Two reviewers independently selected studies that examined adults without known cardiovascular disease and that compared fasting levels of specific biological markers associated with coronary heart disease after alcohol use with those after a period of no alcohol use (controls). 4690 articles were screened for eligibility, the full texts of 124 studies reviewed, and 63 relevant articles selected. Results Of 63 eligible studies, 44 on 13 biomarkers were meta-analysed in fixed or random effects models. Quality was assessed by sensitivity analysis of studies grouped by design. Analyses were stratified by type of beverage (wine, beer, spirits). Alcohol significantly increased levels of high density lipoprotein cholesterol (pooled mean difference 0.094 mmol/L, 95% confidence interval 0.064 to 0.123), apolipoprotein A1 (0.101 g/L, 0.073 to 0.129), and adiponectin (0.56 mg/L, 0.39 to 0.72). Alcohol showed a dose-response relation with high density lipoprotein cholesterol (test for trend P=0.013). Alcohol decreased fibrinogen levels (−0.20 g/L, −0.29 to −0.11) but did not affect triglyceride levels. Results were similar for crossover and before and after studies, and across beverage types. Conclusions Favourable changes in several cardiovascular biomarkers (higher levels of high density lipoprotein cholesterol and adiponectin and lower levels of fibrinogen) provide indirect pathophysiological support for a protective effect of moderate alcohol use on coronary heart disease.

Lifestyle Risk Factors and New-Onset Diabetes Mellitus in Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study

BACKGROUND The combined impact of lifestyle factors on incidence of diabetes mellitus later in life is not well established. The objective of this study was to determine how lifestyle factors, assessed in combination, relate to new-onset diabetes in a broad and relatively unselected population of older adults. METHODS We prospectively examined associations of lifestyle factors, measured using repeated assessments later in life, with incident diabetes mellitus during a 10-year period (1989-1998) among 4883 men and women 65 years or older (mean [SD] age at baseline, 73 [6] years) enrolled in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Low-risk lifestyle groups were defined by physical activity level (leisure-time activity and walking pace) above the median; dietary score (higher fiber intake and polyunsaturated to saturated fat ratio, lower trans-fat intake and lower mean glycemic index) in the top 2 quintiles; never smoked or former smoker more than 20 years ago or for fewer than 5 pack-years; alcohol use (predominantly light or moderate); body mass index less than 25 (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared); and waist circumference of 88 cm for women or 92 cm for men. The main outcome measure was incident diabetes defined annually by new use of insulin or oral hypoglycemic medications. We also evaluated fasting and 2-hour postchallenge glucose levels. RESULTS During 34,539 person-years, 337 new cases of drug-treated diabetes mellitus occurred (9.8 per 1000 person-years). After adjustment for age, sex, race, educational level, and annual income, each lifestyle factor was independently associated with incident diabetes. Overall, the rate of incident diabetes was 35% lower (relative risk, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.59-0.71) for each 1 additional lifestyle factor in the low-risk group. Participants whose physical activity level and dietary, smoking, and alcohol habits were all in the low-risk group had an 82% lower incidence of diabetes (relative risk, 0.18; 95% confidence interval, 0.06-0.56) compared with all other participants. When absence of adiposity (either body mass index <25 or waist circumference < or =88/92 cm for women/men) was added to the other 4 low-risk lifestyle factors, incidence of diabetes was 89% lower (relative risk, 0.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.01-0.76). Overall, 9 of 10 new cases of diabetes appeared to be attributable to these 5 lifestyle factors. Associations were slightly attenuated, but still highly significant, for incident diabetes defined by medication use or glucose level. CONCLUSION Even later in life, combined lifestyle factors are associated with a markedly lower incidence of new-onset diabetes mellitus.

Alcohol Consumption and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation in Men and Women The Copenhagen City Heart Study

Background—The relationship of the full range of alcohol consumption with risk of incident atrial fibrillation has been inconsistent in previous, mainly case-control studies. Methods and Results—In a prospective cohort study, we studied the association between self-reported alcohol use and incident atrial fibrillation among 16 415 women and men enrolled in the Copenhagen City Heart Study. We ascertained use of beer, wine, and spirits individually at up to 3 study visits with a structured questionnaire. We identified cases of atrial fibrillation by routine study ECGs and a validated nationwide registry of all hospitalizations. A total of 1071 cases occurred during follow-up. Among both women and men, alcohol consumption throughout the moderate range was not associated with risk of atrial fibrillation. However, consumption of 35 or more drinks per week among men was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.45 (95% CI 1.02 to 2.04); few women consumed this amount of alcohol. Approximately 5% of cases of atrial fibrillation among men were attributable to heavy alcohol use. Further adjustment for blood pressure and incident coronary heart disease and congestive heart failure did not attenuate the association (hazard ratio 1.63; 95% CI 1.15 to 2.31). Conclusions—Heavy alcohol consumption is associated with a higher risk of atrial fibrillation, at least among men. This relationship does not appear to be related to the adverse effects of heavy drinking on coronary heart disease or blood pressure.

Drinking Frequency, Mediating Biomarkers, and Risk of Myocardial Infarction in Women and Men

Background—The associations of drinking frequency and quantity with risk of myocardial infarction have not been studied among women, and the degree to which specific risk factors mediate the inverse association of drinking frequency with risk of myocardial infarction is uncertain. Methods and Results—We conducted nested case-control studies of 32 826 women enrolled in the Nurses Health Study followed up from 1990 to 1998 and 18 225 men enrolled in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study followed up from 1994 to 2000. A total of 249 women and 266 men with incident myocardial infarction were matched on age, smoking, and date of entry to 498 female and 532 male control participants. We determined the risk of myocardial infarction related to frequency and quantity of alcohol intake and the change in risk before and after adjustment for putative cardiovascular risk factors. Among both women and men, drinking frequency tended to be associated with lower risk of myocardial infarction, with the lowest risks among those who drank 3 to 7 days per week. Further adjustment for levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, hemoglobin A1c, and fibrinogen attenuated 75% of the association of frequent drinking with risk among women and fully attenuated the association among men. Conclusions—Alcohol intake at least 3 to 4 days per week is associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction among women and men, an association apparently attributable to the relationship of alcohol with HDL cholesterol, fibrinogen, and hemoglobin A1c. Because the effects of alcohol on HDL cholesterol, fibrinogen, and insulin sensitivity have been confirmed in randomized trials, our findings support the hypothesis that the inverse relation of alcohol use and myocardial infarction is causal.

High Anthocyanin Intake Is Associated With a Reduced Risk of Myocardial Infarction in Young and Middle-Aged Women

Background— Our current knowledge of modifiable risk factors to prevent myocardial infarction (MI) in young and middle-aged women is limited, and the impact of diet is largely unknown. Dietary flavonoids exert potential beneficial effects on endothelial function in short-term trials; however, the relationship between habitual intake and risk of MI in women is unknown. Methods and Results— We followed up 93 600 women 25 to 42 years of age from the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) II who were healthy at baseline (1989) to examine the relationship between anthocyanins and other flavonoids and the risk of MI. Intake of flavonoid subclasses was calculated from validated food-frequency questionnaires collected every 4 years using an updated and extended US Department of Agriculture database. During 18 years of follow-up, 405 cases of MI were reported. An inverse association between higher intake of anthocyanins and risk of MI was observed (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.49–0.96; P=0.03, highest versus lowest quintiles) after multivariate adjustment. The addition of intermediate conditions, including history of hypertension, did not significantly attenuate the relationship (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.50–0.97; P=0.03). Combined intake of 2 anthocyanin-rich foods, blueberries and strawberries, tended to be associated with a decreased risk of MI (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.40–1.08) in a comparison of those consuming >3 servings a week and those with lower intake. Intakes of other flavonoid subclasses were not significantly associated with MI risk. Conclusions— A high intake of anthocyanins may reduce MI risk in predominantly young women. Intervention trials are needed to further examine the health impact of increasing intakes of commonly consumed anthocyanin-rich foods.

Fibroblast growth factor-23 and death, heart failure, and cardiovascular events in community-living individuals: CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study).

OBJECTIVES This study sought to determine the association of fibroblast growth factor (FGF)-23 with death, heart failure (HF), and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population, as well as the influence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in this setting. BACKGROUND FGF-23 increases renal phosphorus excretion and inhibits vitamin D activation. In end-stage renal disease, high FGF-23 levels are associated with mortality. The association of FGF-23 with death, HF, and CVD in the general population, and the influence of CKD in this setting, are unknown. METHODS Plasma FGF-23 was measured in 3,107 community-living persons ≥ 65 years of age in 1996 and 1997, and participants were followed through 2008. HF and CVD events were adjudicated by a panel of experts. Associations of FGF-23 with each outcome were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models, and we tested whether associations differed by CKD status. RESULTS Both lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and higher urine albumin to creatinine ratios were associated with high FGF-23 at baseline. During 10.5 years (median) follow-up, there were 1,730 deaths, 697 incident HF events, and 797 incident CVD events. Although high FGF-23 concentrations were associated with each outcome in combined analyses, the associations were consistently stronger for those with CKD (p interactions all <0.006). In the CKD group (n = 1,128), the highest FGF-23 quartile had adjusted hazards ratios (HR) of 1.87 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.47 to 2.38) for all-cause death, 1.94 (95% CI: 1.32 to 2.83) for incident HF, and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.02 to 2.18) for incident CVD events compared with the lowest quartile. Corresponding HRs in those without CKD (n = 1,979) were 1.29 (95% CI: 1.05 to 1.59), 1.37 (95% CI: 0.99 to 1.89), and 1.07 (95% CI: 0.79 to 1.45). CONCLUSIONS FGF-23, a hormone involved in phosphorous and vitamin D homeostasis, is independently associated with all-cause death and incident HF in community-living older persons. These associations appear stronger in persons with CKD.

Tea Consumption and Mortality After Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background—Some studies have suggested that tea consumption may be associated with lower mortality among individuals with cardiovascular disease, but the effects of tea consumption on mortality after acute myocardial infarction are unknown. Methods and Results—As part of the Determinants of Myocardial Infarction Onset Study, we performed a prospective cohort study of 1900 patients hospitalized with a confirmed acute myocardial infarction between 1989 and 1994, with a median follow-up of 3.8 years. Trained interviewers assessed self-reported usual weekly caffeinated tea consumption during the year before infarction with a standardized questionnaire. We compared long-term mortality according to tea consumption using Cox proportional hazards regression. Of the 1900 patients, 1019 consumed no tea (nondrinkers), 615 consumed <14 cups per week (moderate tea drinkers), and 266 consumed 14 or more cups per week (heavy tea drinkers). Compared with nondrinkers, age- and sex-adjusted mortality was lower among moderate tea drinkers (hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.89) and heavy tea drinkers (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.42 to 0.86). Additional adjustment for clinical and sociodemographic characteristics did not appreciably alter this association (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.94 for moderate tea drinkers; hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.84 for heavy tea drinkers). The association of tea and mortality was similar for total and cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions—Self-reported tea consumption in the year before acute myocardial infarction is associated with lower mortality after infarction.

Prospective study of alcohol drinking patterns and coronary heart disease in women and men

Abstract Objective To determine the association between alcohol drinking patterns and risk of coronary heart disease in women and men. Design Population based cohort study. Setting Denmark, 1993-2002. Participants 28 448 women and 25 052 men aged 50-65 years, who were free of cardiovascular disease at entry to the study. Main outcome measures Incidence of coronary heart disease occurring during a median follow-up period of 5.7 years. Results 749 and 1283 coronary heart disease events occurred among women and men. Women who drank alcohol on at least one day a week had a lower risk of coronary heart disease than women who drank alcohol on less than one day a week. Little difference was found, however, between drinking frequency: one day a week (hazard ratio 0.64, 95% confidence interval 0.51 to 0.81), 2-4 days a week (0.63, 0.52 to 0.77), five or six days a week (0.79, 0.61 to 1.03), and seven days a week (0.65, 0.51 to 0.84). For men an inverse association was found between drinking frequency and risk of coronary heart disease across the entire range of drinking frequencies. The lowest risk was observed among men who drank daily (0.59, 0.48 to 0.71) compared with men who drank alcohol on less than one day a week. Conclusions Among women alcohol intake may be the primary determinant of the inverse association between drinking alcohol and risk of coronary heart disease whereas among men, drinking frequency, not alcohol intake, seems more important.