Joan Feynman

On space weather consequences and predictions

This paper focuses on the question of what needs to be predicted and what processes need to be understood to predict and forecast space weather conditions that are hazardous to current technology. The papers aim is to see if we are working on the correct space parameters to permit prediction of those quantities that actually present hazards to current space technology. The paper is not intended to be encyclopedic. We conclude that although the sunspot number is a general proxy for many space hazards, there is surprisingly little direct need for its accurate prediction or for the prediction of solar flares as such. We also find that knowledge of Kp and other geomagnetic indices are rarely directly required. Important gaps in our knowledge exist concerning the variations of storm time electron, proton, and ion populations within the magnetosphere. Work is also required in predicting fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and in understanding the processes of CME initiation and acceleration within the corona and high energy solar particle acceleration and propagation.

The solar magnetic field and the solar wind: Existence of preferred longitudes

Direct measurements of the solar wind speed and the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field acquired over more than three solar cycles are used to search for signatures of a persistent dependence of solar wind properties on solar longitude. Two methods of analysis are used. One finds the rotation period that maximizes the amplitude of longitudinal variations of both interplanetary and near-Earth data mapped to the Sun. The other is based on power spectra of near-Earth and near-Venus data. The two methods give the same result. Preferred-longitude effects are found for a synodic solar rotation period of 27.03 ± 0.02 days. Such high precision is attained by using several hundred thousand hourly averages of the solar wind speed and magnetic field. The 27.03-day periodicity is dominant only over long periods of time; other periodicities are often more prominent for shorter intervals such as a single solar cycle or less. The 27.03-day signal is stronger and more consistent in the magnetic field than in the solar wind speed and is stronger for intervals of high and declining solar activity than for intervals of low or rising activity. On average, solar magnetic field lines in the ecliptic plane point outward on one side of the Sun and inward on the other, reversing direction approximately every 11 years while maintaining the same phase. The data are consistent with a model in which the solar magnetic dipole returns to the same longitude after each reversal.

Intermittent turbulence in solar wind from the south polar hole

The magnetic fields measured by the Ulysses spacecraft are used to study solar wind turbulence in the fast solar wind from the south polar hole. The spacecraft was at about 46 deg south latitude and 3.9 AU. For a magnetic field with a Gaussian distribution the power spectrum (second-order structure function) is sufficient to completely characterize the turbulence. However, the actual distribution is non-Gaussian so that the effects of intermittency must be taken into account. The observed spectral exponents include effects of intermittency and cannot be directly compared with the standard second-order spectral theories such as the Kolmogorov and Kraichnan theories. To permit a better comparison of the observations with the theoretical models, we study the structure characteristics of the data. We find the exponents of the second-order structure functions (power spectra) and the higher-order normalized structure functions for the components of the magnetic fields. We show that these sets of exponents can be approximately described by two basic numbers: the spectral exponent and the intermittency exponent. The intermittency exponent characterizes correlation properties of the energy cascade from large to small scales. Before comparing the observations to the theoretically expected values, a reduction must be made to the observed spectral exponent. The amount of the reduction depends on both the intermittency exponent and the model of the energy cascade assumed in the turbulence theory. We reduce the measured spectral indices according to a simple model for Alfven turbulence that is described here. We then compare our reduced spectral indices with second-order spectral theory. The reduced spectral indices for the period range of 1 min to about a half hour are remarkably constant and in good agreement with the value of 3/2. Thus our treatment is self-consistent. Our tentative conclusion is that the high-frequency turbulence appears to agree with the model of random-phased Alfven waves. This tentative conclusion must be tested by further theoretical and observational work.

Coronal mass ejections and major solar flares: The great active center of March 1989

The solar flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) events associated with the large and complex March 1989 active region are discussed. This active region gave us a chance to study the relation of CME with truly major solar flares. The work concentrates on questions of the relation of CMEs and flares to one another and to other types of activity on the Sun. As expected, some major (X-3B class) flares had associated CMEs. However, an unexpected finding is that others did not. In fact, there is strong evidence that the X4-4B flare of March 9th had no CME. This lack of a CME for such an outstanding flare event has important implications to theories of CME causation. Apparently, not all major flares cause CMEs or are caused by CMEs. The relations between CMEs and other types of solar activity are also discussed. No filament disappearances are reported for major CMEs studied here. Comparing these results with other studies, CMEs occur in association with flares and with erupting prominences, but neither are required for a CME. The relation between solar structures showing flaring without filament eruptions and structures showing filament eruptions without flares becomes important. The evolutionary relation between an active flaring sunspot region and extensive filaments without sunspots is reviewed, and the concept of an “evolving magnetic structure” (EMS) is introduced. It is suggested that all CMEs arise in EMSs and that CMEs provide a major path through which azimuthal magnetic fields escape from the Sun during the solar cycle.

The JPL proton fluence model: an update

Abstract The development of new technologies and the miniaturization of sensors bring new requirements for our ability to predict and forecast hazardous space weather conditions. Of particular importance are protons in the energy range from 10s to 100s of MeV which cause electronic part and solar cell degradation, and pose a hazard to biological systems in space and to personnel in polar orbit. Sporadic high-energy solar particle events are a main contributor to the fluences and fluxes of such protons. A statistical model, JPL 1991 (J. Geophys. Res. 98 (1991) 13,281), was developed to specify fluences for spacecraft design and is now widely used. Several major solar proton events have occurred since that model was developed and one objective of this paper is to see if changes need to be made in the model due to these recent events. Another objective is to review the methods used in JPL 1991 in the light of new understandings and to compare the JPL methods with those used in other models. We conclude that the method used in developing JPL 1991 model is valid and that the solar events occurring since then are completely consistent with the 1991 model. Since no changes are needed we suggest that the name of the model be changed to “the JPL fluence model”.

Solar proton events during solar cycles 19, 20, and 21

Solar proton events have been studied for over thirty years and a great deal of lore has grown around them. It is the purpose of this paper to test some of this lore against the actual data. Data on solar proton events now exist for the period from 1956 to 1985 during which time 140 events took place in which the event integrated fluxes for protons of energy > 30 MeV was larger than 105 particles cm-2. We have studied statistical properties of event integrated fluxes for particles with energy > 10 MeV and for particles with energy > 30 MeV. Earlier studies based on a single solar cycle had resulted in a sharp division of events into ‘ordinary’ and ‘anomalously large’ events.Two such entirely separate distributions imply two entirely separate acceleration mechanisms, one common and the other very rare. We find that the sharp division is neither required nor justified by this larger sample. Instead the event intensity forms a smooth distribution for intensities up to the largest observed implying that any second acceleration mechanism cannot be rare. We have also studied the relation of event sizes to the sunspot number and the solar cycle phase. We find a clear bimodal variation of annual integrated flux with solar cycle phase but no statistically significant tendency for the large events to avoid sunspot maximum. We show there is almost no relation between the maximum sunspot number in a solar cycle and the solar cycle integrated flux. We also find that for annual sunspot numbers greater than 35 (i.e., non-minimum solar cycle conditions) there is no relation whatsoever between the annual sunspot numbers and annual integrated flux.

Extratropical signature of the quasi-biennial oscillation

Using the assimilated data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, we show that the extratropical signature of the tropical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is seen mostly in the North Annular Mode (NAM) of atmospheric variability. To understand the extratropical manifestation of the QBO, we discuss two effects that have been suggested earlier: (1) The extratropical circulation is driven by the QBO modulation of the planetary wave flux, and (2) the extratropical circulation is driven by the QBO-induced meridional circulation. We found that the first effect is seen in wave 1 in the beginning of winter and in wave 2 in the end of winter. The QBO-induced circulation affects midlatitude regions over the entire winter. To investigate the QBO-NAM coupling, we use an equation that relates the stream function of the meridional circulation and the polar cap averaged temperature, which is a proxy for the NAM index. In addition to the annual Ω_a and the QBO frequency Ω_Q the spectrum of its solutions indicates the satellite frequencies at Ω_a ± Ω_Q.

Distributions of the interplanetary magnetic field revisited

The adequacy of the power spectrum to characterize the variations of a parameter depends on whether or not the parameter has a Gaussian distribution. We here perform very simple tests of Gaussianity on the distributions of the magnitudes of the interplanetary magnetic field, and on the distributions of the components; that is, we find the first four cumulants of the distributions (mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis) and their solar cycle variations. We find, consistent with other recent analyses, that the traditional distributions of the 1-hour averaged magnitude are not distributed normally or lognormally as has often been assumed and the 1-hour averaged z component is found to have a nonzero kurtosis. Thus the power spectrum is insufficient to completely characterize these variations and polyspectra are needed. We have isolated variations in the 1/f frequency region of the spectrum and show that the distributions of the magnitudes have nonzero skewness and kurtosis, the magnitudes are not distributed lognormally, and the distributions of the components have nonzero kurtosis. Thus higher-order spectra are again needed for a full characterization.

Long-Term Persistence of Solar Activity

The solar irradiante has been found to change by 0.1% over the recent solar cycle. A change of irradiante of about 0.5% is required to effect the Earths climate. How frequently can a variation of this size be expected?We examine the question of the persistence of non-periodic variations in solar activity. The Hürst exponent, which characterizes the persistence of a time series (Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1969), is evaluated for the series of14C data for the time interval from about 6000 BC to 1950 AD (Stuiver and Pearson, 1986). We find a constant Hürst exponent, suggesting that solar activity in the frequency range of from 100 to 3000 years includes an important continuum component in addition to the well-known periodic variations. The value we calculate,H ≈ 0.8, is significantly larger than the value of 0.5 that would correspond to variations produced by a white-noise process. This value is in good agreement with the results for the monthly sunspot data reported elsewhere, indicating that the physics that produces the continuum is a correlated random process (Ruzmaikin et al., 1992), and that it is the same type of process over a wide range of time interval lengths.We conclude that the time period over which an irradiance change of 0.5% can be expected to occur is significantly shorter than that which would be expected for variations produced by a white-noise process.The full paper has been submitted to Solar Physics. Part of the research decribed here was carried out by JPL, Caltech under a contract with NASA.

Is solar variability reflected in the Nile River

We investigate the possibility that solar variability influences North African climate by using annual records of the water level of the Nile collected in 622–1470 A.D. The time series of these records are nonstationary, in that the amplitudes and frequencies of the quasi-periodic variations are time-dependent. We apply the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique especially designed to deal with such time series. We identify two characteristic timescales in the records that may be linked to solar variability: a period of about 88 years and one exceeding 200 years. We show that these timescales are present in the number of auroras reported per decade in the Northern Hemisphere at the same time. The 11-year cycle is seen in the Niles high-water level variations, but it is damped in the low-water anomalies. We suggest a possible physical link between solar variability and the low-frequency variations of the Nile water level. This link involves the influence of solar variability on the atmospheric Northern Annual Mode and on its North Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean patterns that affect the rainfall over the sources of the Nile in eastern equatorial Africa.