Joan Mann

Predicting information technology project escalation: A neural network approach

Abstract Information system (IT) projects can often spiral out of control to become runaway systems that far exceed their original budget and scheduled due date. The majority of these escalated projects are eventually abandoned or significantly redirected without delivering intended business value. Because of the strategic importance of IT projects and the large amount of resources involved in the development of IT projects, the ability to predict project escalation tendency is critical. In this study, we compare neural network and logistic regression models in building an effective early warning system to predict project escalation. Variable selection approaches are employed to identify the most important predictor variables from those derived from the project management literature and four behavioral theories. Results show that neural networks are able to predict considerably better than the traditional statistical approach––logistic regression. In addition, project management factors are found to be more critical than behavioral factors in accounting for the success of an IT project.

A new perspective on de-individuation via computer-mediated communication

Research examining de-individuation via computer-mediated communication (CMC) suggests that group pressure is more pronounced in CMC-using groups than in groups meeting face to face, because CMC strips away non-verbal cues and makes individuals feel more similar to the others in their group. Similarly, electronic voting research suggests that group influence is more pronounced via group support systems when the opinions of others are communicated in real time. However, recent research involving complete anonymity suggests that group influence is mitigated via anonymous CMC because of a lack of awareness of others. Thus, we propose that increased group influence is facilitated when others’ opinions are communicated, and is heightened with the common identity created through the use of nominal labels. This paper reports the results of a laboratory experiment involving groups making an organization decision via a text-based chat room. The results show that a simple electronic voting interface element increased the amount of group influence on individual members, and led to decreased participation and higher dispensability.

Understanding the nature and extent of IS project escalation: results from a survey of IS audit and control professionals

Runaway IS projects continue to be reported regularly in the trade press, but surprisingly little is known about: (1) how widespread the problem actually is, and (2) the factors that cause it to occur. Many runaway IS projects appear to represent what can be described as escalating commitment to a failing course of action. A survey of Information Systems Audit and Control Association (ISACA) members was undertaken in order to understand more about the prevalence of IS project escalation and the factors that cause it. The results are startling: escalation occurs in 30-40% of IS projects, and projects that escalate are rarely completed and implemented successfully. What is more, escalation appears to be caused by a combination of project management as well as psychological, social and organizational factors.