João D. Fontes

Simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the CHARGE-AF consortium

Background Tools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high‐risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors. Methods and Results Individual‐level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19% African Americans, 81% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment—Reykjavik study (AGES) and the Rotterdam Study (RS). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5‐year predictive model including the variables age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction and heart failure had good discrimination (C‐statistic, 0.765; 95% CI, 0.748 to 0.781). Addition of variables from the electrocardiogram did not improve the overall model discrimination (C‐statistic, 0.767; 95% CI, 0.750 to 0.783; categorical net reclassification improvement, −0.0032; 95% CI, −0.0178 to 0.0113). In the validation cohorts, discrimination was acceptable (AGES C‐statistic, 0.664; 95% CI, 0.632 to 0.697 and RS C‐statistic, 0.705; 95% CI, 0.664 to 0.747) and calibration was adequate. Conclusion A risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the United States and Europe.

Association Between Familial Atrial Fibrillation and Risk of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation

CONTEXT Although the heritability of atrial fibrillation (AF) is established, the contribution of familial AF to predicting new-onset AF remains unknown. OBJECTIVE To determine whether familial occurrence of AF is associated with new-onset AF beyond established risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS The Framingham Heart Study, a prospective community-based cohort study started in 1948. Original and Offspring Cohort participants were aged at least 30 years, were free of AF at the baseline examination, and had at least 1 parent or sibling enrolled in the study. The 4421 participants in this analysis (mean age, 54 [SD, 13] years; 54% women) were followed up through December 31, 2007. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Incremental predictive value of incorporating different features of familial AF (any familial AF, premature familial AF [onset ≤65 years old], number of affected relatives, and youngest age of onset in a relative) into a risk model for new-onset AF. RESULTS Across 11,971 examinations during the period 1968-2007, 440 participants developed AF. Familial AF occurred among 1185 participants (26.8%) and premature familial AF occurred among 351 participants (7.9%). Atrial fibrillation occurred more frequently among participants with familial AF than without familial AF (unadjusted absolute event rates of 5.8% and 3.1%, respectively). The association was not attenuated by adjustment for AF risk factors (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.74) or reported AF-related genetic variants. Among the different features of familial AF examined, premature familial AF was associated with improved discrimination beyond traditional risk factors to the greatest extent (traditional risk factors, C statistic, 0.842 [95% CI, 0.826-0.858]; premature familial AF, C statistic, 0.846 [95% CI, 0.831-0.862]; P = .004). Modest changes in integrated discrimination improvement were observed with premature familial AF (2.1%). Net reclassification improvement (assessed using 8-year risk thresholds of <5%, 5%-10%, and >10%) did not change significantly with premature familial AF (index statistic, 0.011; 95% CI, -0.021 to 0.042; P = .51), although categoryless net reclassification was improved (index statistic, 0.127; 95% CI, 0.064-0.189; P = .009). CONCLUSIONS In this cohort, familial AF was associated with an increased risk of AF that was not attenuated by adjustment for AF risk factors including genetic variants. Assessment of premature familial AF was associated with a very slight increase in predictive accuracy compared with traditional risk factors.

Outcomes of Medicare Beneficiaries Undergoing Catheter Ablation for Atrial Fibrillation

Background— Atrial fibrillation is common among older persons. Catheter ablation is increasingly used in patients for whom medical therapy has failed. Methods and Results— We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries ≥65 years of age who underwent catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation between July 1, 2007, and December 31, 2009. The main outcome measures were major complications within 30 days and mortality, heart failure, stroke, hospitalization, and repeat ablation within 1 year. A total of 15 423 patients underwent catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation. Mean age was 72 years; 41% were women; and >95% were white. For every 1000 procedures, there were 17 cases of hemopericardium requiring intervention, 8 cases of stroke, and 8 deaths within 30 days. More than 40% of patients required hospitalization within 1 year; however, atrial fibrillation or flutter was the primary discharge diagnosis in only 38.4% of cases. Eleven percent of patients underwent repeat ablation within 1 year. Renal impairment (hazard ratio, 2.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.66–2.58), age ≥80 years (hazard ratio, 3.09; 95% confidence interval, 2.32–4.11), and heart failure (hazard ratio, 2.54; 95% confidence interval, 2.07–3.13) were major risk factors for 1-year mortality. Advanced age was a major risk factor for all adverse outcomes. Conclusions— Major complications after catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation were associated with advanced age but were fairly infrequent. Few patients underwent repeat ablation. Randomized trials are needed to inform risk-benefit calculations for older persons with drug-refractory, symptomatic atrial fibrillation.

Eight genetic loci associated with variation in lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 mass and activity and coronary heart disease: meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies from five community-based studies

AIMS Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) generates proinflammatory and proatherogenic compounds in the arterial vascular wall and is a potential therapeutic target in coronary heart disease (CHD). We searched for genetic loci related to Lp-PLA2 mass or activity by a genome-wide association study as part of the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) Consortium. METHODS AND RESULTS In meta-analyses of findings from five population-based studies, comprising 13 664 subjects, variants at two loci (PLA2G7, CETP) were associated with Lp-PLA2 mass. The strongest signal was at rs1805017 in PLA2G7 [P = 2.4 × 10(-23), log Lp-PLA2 difference per allele (beta): 0.043]. Variants at six loci were associated with Lp-PLA2 activity (PLA2G7, APOC1, CELSR2, LDL, ZNF259, SCARB1), among which the strongest signals were at rs4420638, near the APOE-APOC1-APOC4-APOC2 cluster [P = 4.9 × 10(-30); log Lp-PLA2 difference per allele (beta): -0.054]. There were no significant gene-environment interactions between these eight polymorphisms associated with Lp-PLA2 mass or activity and age, sex, body mass index, or smoking status. Four of the polymorphisms (in APOC1, CELSR2, SCARB1, ZNF259), but not PLA2G7, were significantly associated with CHD in a second study. CONCLUSION Levels of Lp-PLA2 mass and activity were associated with PLA2G7, the gene coding for this protein. Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 activity was also strongly associated with genetic variants related to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels.

Symptoms and functional status of patients with atrial fibrillation: state of the art and future research opportunities

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia and is associated with increased risks of stroke, heart failure, dementia, and death.1–8 Because the number of elderly individuals will increase over the years to come, the prevalence of AF is predicted to increase dramatically.9 Symptoms are a major reason that patients with AF seek medical attention. Approximately two thirds of all emergency department visits with a primary diagnosis of AF result in hospital admissions.10 AF and its related symptoms therefore represent a major therapeutic challenge and burden to healthcare systems. The major goal of AF therapy is to reduce cardiovascular symptoms, morbidity, and mortality. Because the outcome of rate versus rhythm control therapies is similar,11,12 the degree of symptoms related to the arrhythmia is a major consideration during the selection of a treatment strategy. Given the cost and potential complications related to medications and ablation techniques used for rhythm control, an accurate evaluation of the symptoms and functional status of patients with AF is crucial. Despite the fact that AF was described in humans in 1906,13 no standardized assessment of symptoms or functional status has been accepted as the gold standard. The management of AF stands in marked contrast to heart failure, for which there is a straightforward and widely used symptom scale. Although AF and heart failure often coexist and both may cause similar symptoms, the New York Heart Association functional class was not developed for use in AF per se. The lack of a standardized approach may result in part from the complex clinical decision-making process in patients with AF. Challenges arise because symptoms related to AF are highly variable, not only between patients but also in individual patients …

B-type natriuretic peptide and C-reactive protein in the prediction of atrial fibrillation risk: the CHARGE-AF Consortium of community-based cohort studies

AIMS B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and C-reactive protein (CRP) predict atrial fibrillation (AF) risk. However, their risk stratification abilities in the broad community remain uncertain. We sought to improve risk stratification for AF using biomarker information. METHODS AND RESULTS We ascertained AF incidence in 18 556 Whites and African Americans from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC, n=10 675), Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS, n = 5043), and Framingham Heart Study (FHS, n = 2838), followed for 5 years (prediction horizon). We added BNP (ARIC/CHS: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; FHS: BNP), CRP, or both to a previously reported AF risk score, and assessed model calibration and predictive ability [C-statistic, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI)]. We replicated models in two independent European cohorts: Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik Study (AGES), n = 4467; Rotterdam Study (RS), n = 3203. B-type natriuretic peptide and CRP were significantly associated with AF incidence (n = 1186): hazard ratio per 1-SD ln-transformed biomarker 1.66 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.56-1.76], P < 0.0001 and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.11-1.25), P < 0.0001, respectively. Model calibration was sufficient (BNP, χ(2) = 17.0; CRP, χ(2) = 10.5; BNP and CRP, χ(2) = 13.1). B-type natriuretic peptide improved the C-statistic from 0.765 to 0.790, yielded an IDI of 0.027 (95% CI, 0.022-0.032), a relative IDI of 41.5%, and a continuous NRI of 0.389 (95% CI, 0.322-0.455). The predictive ability of CRP was limited (C-statistic increment 0.003). B-type natriuretic peptide consistently improved prediction in AGES and RS. CONCLUSION B-type natriuretic peptide, not CRP, substantially improved AF risk prediction beyond clinical factors in an independently replicated, heterogeneous population. B-type natriuretic peptide may serve as a benchmark to evaluate novel putative AF risk biomarkers.

Plasma Pyridoxal-5-Phosphate Is Inversely Associated with Systemic Markers of Inflammation in a Population of U.S. Adults

Low vitamin B-6 status, based on plasma concentrations of pyridoxal-5-phosphate (PLP), has been identified in inflammatory diseases, including cardiovascular disease, rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and diabetes. Our objective was to examine the association between plasma PLP and multiple markers of inflammation in a community-based cohort [n = 2229 participants (55% women, mean age 61 ± 9 y)]. We created an overall inflammation score (IS) as the sum of standardized values of 13 individual inflammatory markers. Multivariable-adjusted regression analysis was used to assess the associations between the IS and plasma PLP. Geometric mean plasma PLP concentrations were lower in the highest tertile category of IS relative to the lowest (61 vs. 80 nmol/L; P-trend < 0.0001). Similarly, the prevalence of PLP insufficiency was significantly higher for participants in the highest compared with the lowest tertiles for IS categories. These relationships persisted after accounting for vitamin B-6 intake. Also, there were significant inverse relationships between plasma PLP and 4 IS based on functionally related markers, including acute phase reactants, cytokines, adhesion molecules, and oxidative stress. In addition, secondary analyses revealed that many of the individual inflammatory markers were inversely associated with plasma PLP after adjusting for plasma C-reactive protein concentration. This study, in combination with past findings, further supports our hypothesis that inflammation is associated with a functional deficiency of vitamin B-6. We discuss 2 possible roles for PLP in the inflammatory process, including tryptophan metabolism and serine hydroxymethyltransferase activity.

Risk assessment for incident heart failure in individuals with atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a strong risk factor for heart failure (HF); HF onset in patients with AF is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Risk factors that predict HF in individuals with AF in the community are not well established.

Predicting Stroke Through Genetic Risk Functions The CHARGE Risk Score Project

Background and Purpose— Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. Methods— The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22 720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ≥55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case–control study of ischemic stroke. Results— In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: &Dgr;joint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10−6; ischemic stroke: &Dgr;joint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10−7), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (P<10−4). Conclusions— The single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.

No association between markers of inflammation and osteoarthritis of the hands and knees

Objective. Local inflammation plays a prominent role in osteoarthritis (OA). This could be reflected in the presence of elevated soluble inflammatory markers. We conducted analyses to assess the association of inflammatory markers with radiographic OA of the hands and knees in a large community-based cohort. Methods. The Framingham Offspring cohort consists of the adult children of the original cohort and their spouses. In 1998–2001 these subjects provided blood specimens that were tested for 17 markers of systemic inflammation. In 2002–2005 these subjects had radiographs of both knees and hands. Each hand and knee joint was assigned a Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) score (0–4). We used logistic regression with generalized estimating equations and adjustment for age, sex, and body mass index to examine the association between each inflammatory marker and the presence of radiographic OA (ROA = KL grade ≥ 2) in any joint. We also constructed models for hand joints and knee joints alone. Results. Radiographs and measures of inflammation were done for 1235 subjects (56% women, mean age 65 yrs). Of that group, 729 subjects (59%) had ROA in ≥ 1 hand or knee joint: 179 (14.3%) had knee OA, and 694 (56.2%) had hand OA. There were no significant associations between any marker of inflammation and ROA. Conclusion. In this large sample, in which OA was carefully assessed and multiple markers measured, we found no evidence of an association between any inflammatory marker and the presence of radiographic OA.