Jocelyn M. Weiss

Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategies

BACKGROUND Questions persist concerning the comparative effectiveness of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG). The American College of Cardiology Foundation (ACCF) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) collaborated to compare the rates of long-term survival after PCI and CABG. METHODS We linked the ACCF National Cardiovascular Data Registry and the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database to claims data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services for the years 2004 through 2008. Outcomes were compared with the use of propensity scores and inverse-probability-weighting adjustment to reduce treatment-selection bias. RESULTS Among patients 65 years of age or older who had two-vessel or three-vessel coronary artery disease without acute myocardial infarction, 86,244 underwent CABG and 103,549 underwent PCI. The median follow-up period was 2.67 years. At 1 year, there was no significant difference in adjusted mortality between the groups (6.24% in the CABG group as compared with 6.55% in the PCI group; risk ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90 to 1.00). At 4 years, there was lower mortality with CABG than with PCI (16.4% vs. 20.8%; risk ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.82). Similar results were noted in multiple subgroups and with the use of several different analytic methods. Residual confounding was assessed by means of a sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS In this observational study, we found that, among older patients with multivessel coronary disease that did not require emergency treatment, there was a long-term survival advantage among patients who underwent CABG as compared with patients who underwent PCI. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.).

Predictors of long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting surgery: results from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (the ASCERT study).

Background— Most survival prediction models for coronary artery bypass grafting surgery are limited to in-hospital or 30-day end points. We estimate a long-term survival model using data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Methods and Results— The final study cohort included 348 341 isolated coronary artery bypass grafting patients aged ≥65 years, discharged between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2007, from 917 Society of Thoracic Surgeons–participating hospitals, randomly divided into training (n=174 506) and validation (n=173 835) samples. Through linkage with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services claims data, we ascertained vital status from date of surgery through December 31, 2008 (1- to 6-year follow-up). Because the proportional hazards assumption was violated, we fit 4 Cox regression models conditional on being alive at the beginning of the following intervals: 0 to 30 days, 31 to 180 days, 181 days to 2 years, and >2 years. Kaplan-Meier–estimated mortality was 3.2% at 30 days, 6.4% at 180 days, 8.1% at 1 year, and 23.3% at 3 years of follow-up. Harrells C statistic for predicting overall survival time was 0.732. Some risk factors (eg, emergency status, shock, reoperation) were strong predictors of short-term outcome but, for early survivors, became nonsignificant within 2 years. The adverse impact of some other risk factors (eg, dialysis-dependent renal failure, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus) continued to increase. Conclusions— Using clinical registry data and longitudinal claims data, we developed a long-term survival prediction model for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. This provides valuable information for shared decision making, comparative effectiveness research, quality improvement, and provider profiling.Background— Most survival prediction models for coronary artery bypass grafting surgery are limited to in-hospital or 30-day end points. We estimate a long-term survival model using data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Methods and Results— The final study cohort included 348 341 isolated coronary artery bypass grafting patients aged ≥65 years, discharged between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2007, from 917 Society of Thoracic Surgeons–participating hospitals, randomly divided into training (n=174 506) and validation (n=173 835) samples. Through linkage with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services claims data, we ascertained vital status from date of surgery through December 31, 2008 (1- to 6-year follow-up). Because the proportional hazards assumption was violated, we fit 4 Cox regression models conditional on being alive at the beginning of the following intervals: 0 to 30 days, 31 to 180 days, 181 days to 2 years, and >2 years. Kaplan-Meier–estimated mortality was 3.2% at 30 days, 6.4% at 180 days, 8.1% at 1 year, and 23.3% at 3 years of follow-up. Harrells C statistic for predicting overall survival time was 0.732. Some risk factors (eg, emergency status, shock, reoperation) were strong predictors of short-term outcome but, for early survivors, became nonsignificant within 2 years. The adverse impact of some other risk factors (eg, dialysis-dependent renal failure, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus) continued to increase. Conclusions— Using clinical registry data and longitudinal claims data, we developed a long-term survival prediction model for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. This provides valuable information for shared decision making, comparative effectiveness research, quality improvement, and provider profiling. # CLINICAL PERSPECTIVE {#article-title-39}

A comparison of multimodal perioperative analgesia to epidural pain management after gastric bypass surgery.

We compared pain intensity, analgesic consumption, patient satisfaction, and length of stay in 114 patients undergoing gastric bypass surgery under general anesthesia. Patients were randomized to incisional local anesthetic infiltration plus postoperative patient-controlled analgesia (Group A), epidural anesthesia and analgesia (Group B), or postoperative patient-controlled analgesia (Group C). All received perioperative nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs. Age, sex, body mass index, length of stay, and patient satisfaction were equivalent in all groups. Pain at time 0 and 36 h was the smallest in Group B, greater in Group A, and greatest in Group C. Pain scores in a subset of Group A were lower at all times than in Groups B and C, but this difference was significant only at 0, 12, and 36 h. In responders, infiltration analgesia as part of a multimodal regimen offers a simple, safe, and inexpensive alternative to epidural pain control.

Prediction of Long-Term Mortality After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Older Adults Results From the National Cardiovascular Data Registry

Background— The purpose of this study was to develop a long-term model to predict mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention in both patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and those with more stable coronary disease. Methods and Results— The American College of Cardiology Foundation CathPCI Registry data were linked to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services 100% denominator file by probabilistic matching. Preprocedure demographic and clinical variables from the CathPCI Registry were used to predict the probability of death over 3 years as recorded in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services database. Between 2004 and 2007, 343 466 patients (66%) of 518 195 patients aged ≥65 years undergoing first percutaneous coronary intervention in the CathPCI Registry were successfully linked to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data. This study population was randomly divided into 60% derivation and 40% validation cohorts. Median follow-up was 15 months, with mortality of 3.0% at 30 days and 8.7%, 13.4%, and 18.7% at 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Twenty-four characteristics related to demographics, clinical comorbidity, prior history of disease, and indices of disease severity and acuity were identified as being associated with mortality. The C indices in the validation cohorts for patients with and without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were 0.79 and 0.78. The model calibrated well across a wide range of predicted probabilities. Conclusions— On the basis of the large and nationally representative CathPCI Registry, we have developed a model that has excellent discrimination, calibration, and validation to predict survival up to 3 years after percutaneous coronary intervention.

Response to Letter Regarding Article, “Predictors of Long-Term Survival After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Surgery: Results From the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (the ASCERT Study)”

We thank Dr Poullis for his careful review of our article,1 and we are pleased to respond to the issues he has raised. First, our study was confined to patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. However, as in most real-world populations of patients who undergo this procedure, some of those in our study did have mild coexisting valve disease that was not felt to require concomitant repair or replacement. There were even a very few patients with more severe valve disease who, for what were likely to have been unusual circumstances, only had coronary artery bypass grafting. The increased hazard ratios associated with coexisting moderate to severe valvular insufficiency and with progressive aortic stenosis convey an important message that would not have been apparent had we excluded all such patients from our study. The presence of uncorrected, significant coexisting valve disease is associated with an increased risk of long-term …

Predictors of Long-Term Survival After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting SurgeryCLINICAL PERSPECTIVE: Results From the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (The ASCERT Study)

Background— Most survival prediction models for coronary artery bypass grafting surgery are limited to in-hospital or 30-day end points. We estimate a long-term survival model using data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Methods and Results— The final study cohort included 348 341 isolated coronary artery bypass grafting patients aged ≥65 years, discharged between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2007, from 917 Society of Thoracic Surgeons–participating hospitals, randomly divided into training (n=174 506) and validation (n=173 835) samples. Through linkage with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services claims data, we ascertained vital status from date of surgery through December 31, 2008 (1- to 6-year follow-up). Because the proportional hazards assumption was violated, we fit 4 Cox regression models conditional on being alive at the beginning of the following intervals: 0 to 30 days, 31 to 180 days, 181 days to 2 years, and >2 years. Kaplan-Meier–estimated mortality was 3.2% at 30 days, 6.4% at 180 days, 8.1% at 1 year, and 23.3% at 3 years of follow-up. Harrells C statistic for predicting overall survival time was 0.732. Some risk factors (eg, emergency status, shock, reoperation) were strong predictors of short-term outcome but, for early survivors, became nonsignificant within 2 years. The adverse impact of some other risk factors (eg, dialysis-dependent renal failure, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus) continued to increase. Conclusions— Using clinical registry data and longitudinal claims data, we developed a long-term survival prediction model for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. This provides valuable information for shared decision making, comparative effectiveness research, quality improvement, and provider profiling.Background— Most survival prediction models for coronary artery bypass grafting surgery are limited to in-hospital or 30-day end points. We estimate a long-term survival model using data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Methods and Results— The final study cohort included 348 341 isolated coronary artery bypass grafting patients aged ≥65 years, discharged between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2007, from 917 Society of Thoracic Surgeons–participating hospitals, randomly divided into training (n=174 506) and validation (n=173 835) samples. Through linkage with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services claims data, we ascertained vital status from date of surgery through December 31, 2008 (1- to 6-year follow-up). Because the proportional hazards assumption was violated, we fit 4 Cox regression models conditional on being alive at the beginning of the following intervals: 0 to 30 days, 31 to 180 days, 181 days to 2 years, and >2 years. Kaplan-Meier–estimated mortality was 3.2% at 30 days, 6.4% at 180 days, 8.1% at 1 year, and 23.3% at 3 years of follow-up. Harrells C statistic for predicting overall survival time was 0.732. Some risk factors (eg, emergency status, shock, reoperation) were strong predictors of short-term outcome but, for early survivors, became nonsignificant within 2 years. The adverse impact of some other risk factors (eg, dialysis-dependent renal failure, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus) continued to increase. Conclusions— Using clinical registry data and longitudinal claims data, we developed a long-term survival prediction model for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. This provides valuable information for shared decision making, comparative effectiveness research, quality improvement, and provider profiling. # CLINICAL PERSPECTIVE {#article-title-39}

Predictors of Long-Term Survival After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting SurgeryCLINICAL PERSPECTIVE

Background— Most survival prediction models for coronary artery bypass grafting surgery are limited to in-hospital or 30-day end points. We estimate a long-term survival model using data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Methods and Results— The final study cohort included 348 341 isolated coronary artery bypass grafting patients aged ≥65 years, discharged between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2007, from 917 Society of Thoracic Surgeons–participating hospitals, randomly divided into training (n=174 506) and validation (n=173 835) samples. Through linkage with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services claims data, we ascertained vital status from date of surgery through December 31, 2008 (1- to 6-year follow-up). Because the proportional hazards assumption was violated, we fit 4 Cox regression models conditional on being alive at the beginning of the following intervals: 0 to 30 days, 31 to 180 days, 181 days to 2 years, and >2 years. Kaplan-Meier–estimated mortality was 3.2% at 30 days, 6.4% at 180 days, 8.1% at 1 year, and 23.3% at 3 years of follow-up. Harrells C statistic for predicting overall survival time was 0.732. Some risk factors (eg, emergency status, shock, reoperation) were strong predictors of short-term outcome but, for early survivors, became nonsignificant within 2 years. The adverse impact of some other risk factors (eg, dialysis-dependent renal failure, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus) continued to increase. Conclusions— Using clinical registry data and longitudinal claims data, we developed a long-term survival prediction model for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. This provides valuable information for shared decision making, comparative effectiveness research, quality improvement, and provider profiling.Background— Most survival prediction models for coronary artery bypass grafting surgery are limited to in-hospital or 30-day end points. We estimate a long-term survival model using data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Methods and Results— The final study cohort included 348 341 isolated coronary artery bypass grafting patients aged ≥65 years, discharged between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2007, from 917 Society of Thoracic Surgeons–participating hospitals, randomly divided into training (n=174 506) and validation (n=173 835) samples. Through linkage with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services claims data, we ascertained vital status from date of surgery through December 31, 2008 (1- to 6-year follow-up). Because the proportional hazards assumption was violated, we fit 4 Cox regression models conditional on being alive at the beginning of the following intervals: 0 to 30 days, 31 to 180 days, 181 days to 2 years, and >2 years. Kaplan-Meier–estimated mortality was 3.2% at 30 days, 6.4% at 180 days, 8.1% at 1 year, and 23.3% at 3 years of follow-up. Harrells C statistic for predicting overall survival time was 0.732. Some risk factors (eg, emergency status, shock, reoperation) were strong predictors of short-term outcome but, for early survivors, became nonsignificant within 2 years. The adverse impact of some other risk factors (eg, dialysis-dependent renal failure, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus) continued to increase. Conclusions— Using clinical registry data and longitudinal claims data, we developed a long-term survival prediction model for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. This provides valuable information for shared decision making, comparative effectiveness research, quality improvement, and provider profiling. # CLINICAL PERSPECTIVE {#article-title-39}