Jochem Marotzke

Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM

Abstract This paper describes the mean ocean circulation and the tropical variability simulated by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). Results are presented from a version of the coupled model that served as a prototype for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) simulations. The model does not require flux adjustment to maintain a stable climate. A control simulation with present-day greenhouse gases is analyzed, and the simulation of key oceanic features, such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), large-scale circulation, meridional heat and freshwater transports, and sea ice are compared with observations. A parameterization that accounts for the effect of ocean currents on surface wind stress is implemented in the model. The largest impact of this parameterization is in the tropical Pacific, where the mean state is significantly improved: the strength of the trade winds and the associated...

Initializing Decadal Climate Predictions with the GECCO Oceanic Synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic

This study aims at improving the forecast skill of climate predictions through the use of ocean synthesis data for initial conditions of a coupled climate model. For this purpose, the coupled model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) for Meteorology, which consists of the atmosphere model ECHAM5 and the MPI Ocean Model (MPI-OM), is initialized with oceanic synthesis fields available from the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO) project. The use of an anomaly coupling scheme during the initialization avoids the main problems with drift in the climate predictions. Thus, the coupled model is continuously forced to follow the density anomalies of the GECCO synthesis over the period 1952–2001. Hindcast experiments are initialized from this experiment at constant intervals. The results show predictive skill through the initialization up to the decadal time scale, particularly over the North Atlantic. Viewed over the time scales analyzed here (annual, 5-yr, and 10-yr mean), greater skill for the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) is obtained in the hindcast experiments than in either a damped persistence or trend forecast. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation hindcast closely follows that of the GECCO oceanic synthesis. Hindcasts of global-mean temperature do not obtain greater skill than either damped persistence or a trend forecast, owing to the SST errors in the GECCO synthesis, outside the North Atlantic. An ensemble of forecast experiments is subsequently performed over the period 2002–11. North Atlantic SST from the forecast experiment agrees well with observations until the year 2007, and it is higher than if simulated without the oceanic initialization (averaged over the forecast period). The results confirm that both the initial and the boundary conditions must be accounted for in decadal climate predictions.

Multiple Equilibria of the Global Thermohaline Circulation

Abstract A general circulation model with a highly idealized geometry is used to investigate which fundamentally different equilibria of the global thermohaline circulation may exist. The model comprises two identical basins representing the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, which are connected by a circumpolar channel in the south. The model circulation is driven, in addition to wind forcing by restoring the sea surface temperature to prescribed values and specified freshwater fluxes in the surface salinity budget (mixed boundary conditions). The boundary conditions are symmetric with respect to the equator and identical for both oceans. Four fundamentally different, stable steady states are found under the same set of boundary conditions. Two of the equilibria show both oceans in the same state, with high-altitude deep-water formation occuring either in both northern or in both southern oceans, respectively. Two additional equilibria exist in which the thermohaline circulations of the basins differ fundament...

Continuous, Array-Based Estimates of Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport at 26.5°N

Continuous estimates of the oceanic meridional heat transport in the Atlantic are derived from the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) and Heatflux Array (RAPID–MOCHA) observing system deployed along 26.5°N, for the period from April 2004 to October 2007. The basinwide meridional heat transport (MHT) is derived by combining temperature transports (relative to a common reference) from 1) the Gulf Stream in the Straits of Florida; 2) the western boundary region offshore of Abaco, Bahamas; 3) the Ekman layer [derived from Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) wind stresses]; and 4) the interior ocean monitored by “endpoint” dynamic height moorings. The interior eddy heat transport arising from spatial covariance of the velocity and temperature fields is estimated independently from repeat hydrographic and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) sections and can also be approximated by the array. The results for the 3.5 yr of data thus far available show a mean MHT of 1.33 ± 0.40 PW for 10-day-averaged estimates, on which time scale a basinwide mass balance can be reasonably assumed. The associated MOC strength and variability is 18.5 ± 4.9 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). The continuous heat transport estimates range from a minimum of 0.2 to a maximum of 2.5 PW, with approximately half of the variance caused by Ekman transport changes and half caused by changes in the geostrophic circulation. The data suggest a seasonal cycle of the MHT with a maximum in summer (July–September) and minimum in late winter (March–April), with an annual range of 0.6 PW. A breakdown of the MHT into “overturning” and “gyre” components shows that the overturning component carries 88% of the total heat transport. The overall uncertainty of the annual mean MHT for the 3.5-yr record is 0.14 PW or about 10% of the mean value.

The collective-risk social dilemma and the prevention of simulated dangerous climate change

Will a group of people reach a collective target through individual contributions when everyone suffers individually if the target is missed? This “collective-risk social dilemma” exists in various social scenarios, the globally most challenging one being the prevention of dangerous climate change. Reaching the collective target requires individual sacrifice, with benefits to all but no guarantee that others will also contribute. It even seems tempting to contribute less and save money to induce others to contribute more, hence the dilemma and the risk of failure. Here, we introduce the collective-risk social dilemma and simulate it in a controlled experiment: Will a group of people reach a fixed target sum through successive monetary contributions, when they know they will lose all their remaining money with a certain probability if they fail to reach the target sum? We find that, under high risk of simulated dangerous climate change, half of the groups succeed in reaching the target sum, whereas the others only marginally fail. When the risk of loss is only as high as the necessary average investment or even lower, the groups generally fail to reach the target sum. We conclude that one possible strategy to relieve the collective-risk dilemma in high-risk situations is to convince people that failure to invest enough is very likely to cause grave financial loss to the individual. Our analysis describes the social window humankind has to prevent dangerous climate change.

Stability and Variability of the Thermohaline Circulation

Abstract The stability and internal variability of the oceans thermohaline circulation is investigated using a coarse-resolution general circulation model of an idealized ocean basin, in one hemisphere. The model circulation is driven, in addition to wind forcing, by restoring the surface temperature to prescribed values, and by specifying freshwater fluxes in the surface salinity budget (mixed boundary conditions). All forcing functions are constant in time. The surface freshwater forcing is the dominant factor in determining the models stability and internal variability. Increasing the relative importance of freshwater flux versus thermal forcing, in turn, one stable steady state of the model, two stable ones, one stable, and one unstable equilibrium, or no stable steady states at all are found. If the freshwater forcing is sufficiently strong, self-sustained oscillations exist in the deep-water formation rate, which last thousands of years. One type of oscillation occurs on the time scale of decades ...

Seasonal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) makes the strongest oceanic contribution to the meridional redistribution of heat. Here, an observation-based, 48-month-long time series of the vertical structure and strength of the AMOC at 26.5°N is presented. From April 2004 to April 2008, the AMOC had a mean strength of 18.7 ± 2.1 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) with fluctuations of 4.8 Sv rms. The best guess of the peak-to-peak amplitude of the AMOC seasonal cycle is 6.7 Sv, with a maximum strength in autumn and a minimum in spring. While seasonality in the AMOC was commonly thought to be dominated by the northward Ekman transport, this study reveals that fluctuations of the geostrophic midocean and Gulf Stream transports of 2.2 and 1.7 Sv rms, respectively, are substantially larger than those of the Ekman component (1.2 Sv rms). A simple model based on linear dynamics suggests that the seasonal cycle is dominated by wind stress curl forcing at the eastern boundary of the Atlantic. Seasonal geost...

The oceanic eddy heat transport

The rectified eddy heat transport is calculated from a global high-resolution ocean general circulation model. The eddy heat transport is found to be strong in the western boundary currents, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and the equatorial region. It is generally weak in the central gyres. It is also found to be largely confined to the upper 1000 m of the ocean model. The eddy heat transport is separated into its rotational and divergent components. The rotational component of the eddy heat transport is strong in the western boundary currents, while the divergent component is strongest in the equatorial region and Antarctic Circumpolar Current. In the equatorial region, the eddy heat transport is due to tropical instability waves, while in the western boundary currents and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current the large eddy heat transports arise from the meandering of the currents. Stammer’s method for estimating the eddy heat transport from an eddy diffusivity derived from mixing length arguments, using altimetry data and the climatological temperature field, is tested and fails to reproduce the model’s directly evaluated eddy heat transport in the equatorial regions, and possible reasons for the discrepancy are explored. However, in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region and to a lesser extent in the western boundary currents, the model’s eddy heat transport is shown to have some qualitative agreement with his estimate.

The dynamics of ocean heat transport variability

The north-south heat transport is the prime manifestation of the oceans role in global climate, but understanding of its variability has been fragmentary owing to uncertainties in observational analyses, limitations in models, and the lack of a convincing mechanism. We review the dynamics of global ocean heat transport variability, with an emphasis on timescales from monthly to interannual. We synthesize relatively simple dynamical ideas and show that together they explain heat transport variability in a state-of-the-art, high-resolution ocean general circulation model. Globally, the cross-equatorial seasonal heat transport fluctuations are close to ±3 × 1015 W, the same amplitude as the cross-equatorial seasonal atmospheric energy transport. The variability is concentrated within 20° of the equator and dominated by the annual cycle. The majority of the variability is due to wind-induced current fluctuations in which the time-varying wind drives Ekman layer mass transports that are compensated by depth-independent return flows. The temperature difference between the mass transports gives rise to the time-dependent heat transport. It is found that in the heat budget the divergence of the time-varying heat transport is largely balanced by changes in heat storage. Despite the Ekman transports strong impact on the time-dependent heat transport, the largely depth-independent character of its associated meridional overturning stream function means that it does not affect estimates of the time-mean heat transport made by one-time hydrographic surveys. Away from the tropics the heat transport variability associated with the depth-independent gyre and depth-dependent circulations is much weaker than the Ekman variability. The non-Ekman contributions can amount to a 0.2–0.4 × 1015 W standard deviation in the heat transport estimated from a one-time hydrographic survey.

Boundary Mixing and the Dynamics of Three-Dimensional Thermohaline Circulations

Boundary mixing is implemented in an ocean general circulation model such that the vertical mixing coefficient ky is nonzero only near side boundaries and in convection regions. The model is used in a highly idealized configuration with no wind forcing and very nearly fixed surface density to investigate the three-dimensional dynamics of the thermohaline circulation. For ky 5 20 3 1024 m2 s21 and lower, the meridional overturning strength to great accuracy is proportional to ; meridional heat transport is proportional to . The circulation 2/3 1/2 kk y y patterns resemble those from runs with uniform vertical mixing, but vertical motion is entirely confined to the boundary regions. Near the western boundary, there is upwelling everywhere. Near the eastern boundary, there is a consistent pattern of downwelling above upwelling, with downwelling reaching deeper at high latitudes; this pattern is explained by convection and vertical advective‐diffusive balance underneath. For ky 5 30 3 1024 m2 s21 and higher, no steady solutions have been found; the meridional overturning oscillates on a timescale of about 25 years. A time-averaged thermally direct overturning cell is not supported dynamically because convection extends longitudinally across the entire basin, and upwelling near the western boundary does not lead to densities higher than at the eastern boundary. Assuming uniform upwelling in the west, level isopycnals near the equator, and level isopycnals along the eastern boundary south of the outcropping latitude permits the analytic determination of convection depth at the eastern wall and hence the density difference between the eastern and western walls. This difference is at most one-quarter the surface density difference between high and low latitudes, and agrees in magnitude and latitudinal dependence with the numerical experiments. Scaling arguments estimate overturning strength as of the order of 10 3 106 m3 s21 and confirm the 2/3 power dependence onky. The derivation also gives a dependence of overturning strength with latitude that agrees qualitatively with the numerical results. The scaling for the dependence of meridional heat transport on latitude agrees well with the model results; scaling for heat transport amplitude agrees less well but correctly predicts a weaker dependence on ky than maximum overturning.