Joellen L. Russell

GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics

Abstract The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAAs Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved. Two versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2° latitude × 2.5° longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1° in latitude and longitude, wi...

GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part II: The Baseline Ocean Simulation

The current generation of coupled climate models run at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) as part of the Climate Change Science Program contains ocean components that differ in almost every respect from those contained in previous generations of GFDL climate models. This paper summarizes the new physical features of the models and examines the simulations that they produce. Of the two new coupled climate model versions 2.1 (CM2.1) and 2.0 (CM2.0), the CM2.1 model represents a major improvement over CM2.0 in most of the major oceanic features examined, with strikingly lower drifts in hydrographic fields such as temperature and salinity, more realistic ventilation of the deep ocean, and currents that are closer to their observed values. Regional analysis of the differences between the models highlights the importance of wind stress in determining the circulation, particularly in the Southern Ocean. At present, major errors in both models are associated with Northern Hemisphere Mode Waters and outflows from overflows, particularly the Mediterranean Sea and Red Sea.

Ocean circulation in a warming climate.

Climate models predict that the oceans circulation will weaken in response to global warming, but the warming at the end of the last ice age suggests a different outcome.

The Southern Hemisphere Westerlies in a Warming World: Propping Open the Door to the Deep Ocean

Abstract A coupled climate model with poleward-intensified westerly winds simulates significantly higher storage of heat and anthropogenic carbon dioxide by the Southern Ocean in the future when compared with the storage in a model with initially weaker, equatorward-biased westerlies. This difference results from the larger outcrop area of the dense waters around Antarctica and more vigorous divergence, which remains robust even as rising atmospheric greenhouse gas levels induce warming that reduces the density of surface waters in the Southern Ocean. These results imply that the impact of warming on the stratification of the global ocean may be reduced by the poleward intensification of the westerlies, allowing the ocean to remove additional heat and anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

The environmental context for the origins of modern human diversity: A synthesis of regional variability in African climate 150,000-30,000 years ago

We synthesize African paleoclimate from 150 to 30 ka (thousand years ago) using 85 diverse datasets at a regional scale, testing for coherence with North Atlantic glacial/interglacial phases and northern and southern hemisphere insolation cycles. Two major determinants of circum-African climate variability over this time period are supported by principal components analysis: North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variations and local insolation maxima. North Atlantic SSTs correlated with the variability found in most circum-African SST records, whereas the variability of the majority of terrestrial temperature and precipitation records is explained by local insolation maxima, particularly at times when solar radiation was intense and highly variable (e.g., 150-75 ka). We demonstrate that climates varied with latitude, such that periods of relatively increased aridity or humidity were asynchronous across the northern, eastern, tropical and southern portions of Africa. Comparisons of the archaeological, fossil, or genetic records with generalized patterns of environmental change based solely on northern hemisphere glacial/interglacial cycles are therefore imprecise. We compare our refined climatic framework to a database of 64 radiometrically-dated paleoanthropological sites to test hypotheses of demographic response to climatic change among African hominin populations during the 150-30 ka interval. We argue that at a continental scale, population and climate changes were asynchronous and likely occurred under different regimes of climate forcing, creating alternating opportunities for migration into adjacent regions. Our results suggest little relation between large scale demographic and climate change in southern Africa during this time span, but strongly support the hypothesis of hominin occupation of the Sahara during discrete humid intervals ~135-115 ka and 105-75 ka. Hominin populations in equatorial and eastern Africa may have been buffered from the extremes of climate change by locally steep altitudinal and rainfall gradients and the complex and variable effects of increased aridity on human habitat suitability in the tropics. Our data are consistent with hominin migrations out of Africa through varying exit points from ~140-80 ka.

Intercomparison of the Southern Ocean Circulations in IPCC Coupled Model Control Simulations

Abstract The analyses presented here focus on the Southern Ocean as simulated in a set of global coupled climate model control experiments conducted by several international climate modeling groups. Dominated by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the vast Southern Ocean can influence large-scale surface climate features on various time scales. Its climatic relevance stems in part from it being the region where most of the transformation of the World Ocean’s water masses occurs. In climate change experiments that simulate greenhouse gas–induced warming, Southern Ocean air–sea heat fluxes and three-dimensional circulation patterns make it a region where much of the future oceanic heat storage takes place, though the magnitude of that heat storage is one of the larger sources of uncertainty associated with the transient climate response in such model projections. Factors such as the Southern Ocean’s wind forcing, heat, and salt budgets are linked to the structure and transport of the ACC in ways that h...

Wind erosion in the Qaidam basin, central Asia: Implications for tectonics, paleoclimate, and the source of the Loess Plateau

Liquid water and ice are the dominant agents of erosion and sediment transport in most actively growing mountain belts. An exception is in the western Qaidam basin along the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, where wind and windblown sand have sculpted enormous yardang fields in actively folding sedimentary strata. Here, we present observations suggesting that since the late Pliocene, wind episodically (during glacial and stadial periods) removed strata from the western Qaidam basin at high rates (>0.12–1.1 mm/yr) and may have accelerated rates of tectonic folding. Severe wind erosion likely occurred during glacial and stadial periods when central Asia was drier and the main axis of the polar jet stream was located ~10° closer to the equator (over the Qaidam basin), as predicted by global climate models. Reconstructed wind patterns, the estimated volume of Qaidam basin material removed by wind, and numerical models of dust transport all support the hypothesis that the Qaidam basin was a major source of dust to the Loess Plateau.

Effect of global ocean temperature change on deep ocean ventilation

[1] A growing number of paleoceanographic observations suggest that the ocean’s deep ventilation is stronger in warm climates than in cold climates. Here we use a general ocean circulation model to test the hypothesis that this relation is due to the reduced sensitivity of seawater density to temperature at low mean temperature; that is, at lower temperatures the surface cooling is not as effective at densifying fresh polar waters and initiating convection. In order to isolate this factor from other climate-related feedbacks we change the model ocean temperature only where it is used to calculate the density (to which we refer below as ‘‘dynamic’’ temperature change). We find that a dynamically cold ocean is globally less ventilated than a dynamically warm ocean. With dynamic cooling, convection decreases markedly in regions that have strong haloclines (i.e., the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific), while overturning increases in the North Atlantic, where the positive salinity buoyancy is smallest among the polar regions. We propose that this opposite behavior of the North Atlantic to the Southern Ocean and North Pacific is the result of an energy-constrained overturning.

Two Modes of North American Drought from Instrumental and Paleoclimatic Data

Abstract Droughts, which occur as a part of natural climate variability, are expected to increase in frequency and/or severity with global climate change. An improved understanding of droughts and their association with atmospheric circulation will add to the knowledge about the controls on drought, and the ways in which changes in climate may impact droughts. In this study, 1) major drought patterns across the United States have been defined, 2) the robustness of these patterns over time using tree-ring-based drought reconstructions have been evaluated, and 3) the drought patterns with respect to global atmospheric pressure patterns have been assessed. From this simple assessment, it is suggested that there are two major drought patterns across North America, which together account for about 30% of the total variance in drought patterns—one resembles the classic ENSO teleconnection, and the other displays an east–west drought dipole. The same two patterns are evident in the instrumental data and the reco...

GCM Simulations of Titan's Middle and Lower Atmosphere and Comparison to Observations

Abstract Simulation results are presented from a new general circulation model (GCM) of Titan, the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), which couples the Flexible Modeling System (FMS) spectral dynamical core to a suite of external/sub-grid-scale physics. These include a new non-gray radiative transfer module that takes advantage of recent data from Cassini–Huygens, large-scale condensation and quasi-equilibrium moist convection schemes, a surface model with “bucket” hydrology, and boundary layer turbulent diffusion. The model produces a realistic temperature structure from the surface to the lower mesosphere, including a stratopause, as well as satisfactory superrotation. The latter is shown to depend on the dynamical core’s ability to build up angular momentum from surface torques. Simulated latitudinal temperature contrasts are adequate, compared to observations, and polar temperature anomalies agree with observations. In the lower atmosphere, the insolation distribution is shown to strongly impact turbulent fluxes, and surface heating is maximum at mid-latitudes. Surface liquids are unstable at mid- and low-latitudes, and quickly migrate poleward. The simulated humidity profile and distribution of surface temperatures, compared to observations, corroborate the prevalence of dry conditions at low latitudes. Polar cloud activity is well represented, though the observed mid-latitude clouds remain somewhat puzzling, and some formation alternatives are suggested.