Joerg A. Priess

Indirect land-use changes can overcome carbon savings from biofuels in Brazil

The planned expansion of biofuel plantations in Brazil could potentially cause both direct and indirect land-use changes (e.g., biofuel plantations replace rangelands, which replace forests). In this study, we use a spatially explicit model to project land-use changes caused by that expansion in 2020, assuming that ethanol (biodiesel) production increases by 35 (4) x 109 liter in the 2003-2020 period. Our simulations show that direct land-use changes will have a small impact on carbon emissions because most biofuel plantations would replace rangeland areas. However, indirect land-use changes, especially those pushing the rangeland frontier into the Amazonian forests, could offset the carbon savings from biofuels. Sugarcane ethanol and soybean biodiesel each contribute to nearly half of the projected indirect deforestation of 121,970 km2 by 2020, creating a carbon debt that would take about 250 years to be repaid using these biofuels instead of fossil fuels. We also tested different crops that could serve as feedstock to fulfill Brazil’s biodiesel demand and found that oil palm would cause the least land-use changes and associated carbon debt. The modeled livestock density increases by 0.09 head per hectare. But a higher increase of 0.13 head per hectare in the average livestock density throughout the country could avoid the indirect land-use changes caused by biofuels (even with soybean as the biodiesel feedstock), while still fulfilling all food and bioenergy demands. We suggest that a closer collaboration or strengthened institutional link between the biofuel and cattle-ranching sectors in the coming years is crucial for effective carbon savings from biofuels in Brazil.

Impacts of Climate Change and the End of Deforestation on Land Use in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

AbstractClimate change scenarios vary considerably over the Amazon region, with an extreme scenario projecting a dangerous (from the human perspective) increase of 3.8°C in temperature and 30% reduction in precipitation by 2050. The impacts of such climate change on Amazonian land-use dynamics, agricultural production, and deforestation rates are still to be determined. In this study, the authors make a first attempt to assess these impacts through a systemic approach, using a spatially explicit modeling framework to project crop yield and land-use/land-cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050. The results show that, without any adaptation, climate change may exert a critical impact on the yields of crops commonly cultivated in the Amazon (e.g., soybean yields are reduced by 44% in the worst-case scenario). Therefore, following baseline projections on crop and livestock production, a scenario of severe regional climate change would cause additional deforestation of 181 000 km2 (+20%) in the Amazon an...

Short communication: A generic framework for land-use modelling

In this paper we present the generic modelling system SITE (SImulation of Terrestrial Environments), a software package to develop and apply models simulating regional land-use dynamics. The modelling system includes (i) a framework managing the model generics and (ii) code templates for the development of rule-based land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) models. SITE comprises built-in methods for e.g. map comparison, model optimization and environmental scenarios.

Integrative Scenario Development

Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

Comparing bioenergy production sites in the Southeastern US regarding ecosystem service supply and demand.

Biomass for bioenergy is debated for its potential synergies or tradeoffs with other provisioning and regulating ecosystem services (ESS). This biomass may originate from different production systems and may be purposefully grown or obtained from residues. Increased concerns globally about the sustainable production of biomass for bioenergy has resulted in numerous certification schemes focusing on best management practices, mostly operating at the plot/field scale. In this study, we compare the ESS of two watersheds in the southeastern US. We show the ESS tradeoffs and synergies of plantation forestry, i.e., pine poles, and agricultural production, i.e., wheat straw and corn stover, with the counterfactual natural or semi-natural forest in both watersheds. The plantation forestry showed less distinct tradeoffs than did corn and wheat production, i.e., for carbon storage, P and sediment retention, groundwater recharge, and biodiversity. Using indicators of landscape composition and configuration, we showed that landscape planning can affect the overall ESS supply and can partly determine if locally set environmental thresholds are being met. Indicators on landscape composition, configuration and naturalness explained more than 30% of the variation in ESS supply. Landscape elements such as largely connected forest patches or more complex agricultural patches, e.g., mosaics with shrub and grassland patches, may enhance ESS supply in both of the bioenergy production systems. If tradeoffs between biomass production and other ESS are not addressed by landscape planning, it may be reasonable to include rules in certification schemes that require, e.g., the connectivity of natural or semi-natural forest patches in plantation forestry or semi-natural landscape elements in agricultural production systems. Integrating indicators on landscape configuration and composition into certification schemes is particularly relevant considering that certification schemes are governance tools used to ensure comparable sustainability standards for biomass produced in countries with variable or absent legal frameworks for landscape planning.

Modelling regional scale biofuel scenarios – a case study for India

Biofuel initiatives in India have gained momentum with the national biofuel policy targeting 20% blending of both petrol and diesel by 2017. Most of Indias biofuel plans revolve around using sugarcane for bioethanol and jatropha for biodiesel production. This study, taking the southern Indian state of Karnataka as an example, aims at estimating the potential to achieve policy targets. The study spatially analyses land‐use change owing to biofuel expansion and its effects on food production. We used an integrated modelling framework to simulate land‐use change and bioenergy production under two scenarios – Industrial Economy (IE) and Agricultural Economy (AE). Results indicate that meeting the 20% blending target is a challenging goal to achieve under both scenarios. Bioethanol requirements can be nearly fulfilled (88% under IE and 93% under AE) because of sugarcane expansion. However, biodiesel demands cannot be fulfilled using only degraded lands as currently planned in India, but additional agricultural land (3–4% of the total cropland) will be required for jatropha‐based biodiesel production. Food production will not be directly impacted until 2025, because the largest source of additional land could be short‐ and long‐term fallows. We conclude that conservation oriented initiatives, such as water harvesting and energy conservation measures can increase productivities of biofuel crops and reduce fuel demands, respectively. State support and Clean Development Mechanism opportunities can enhance economic incentives for energy cropping. Therefore, a simultaneous and multipronged approach is needed to accommodate food and fuel demands in India.

Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions.

Meeting the world’s growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This indicates that SRCs negligibly affect trade-offs between individual ESS. Coupling spatially explicit economic simulation models with environmental and ESS assessment models can contribute to a comprehensive impact assessment of bioenergy feedstocks that have not yet been planted.

Practical application of spatial ecosystem service models to aid decision support

Highlights • A structured protocol for adapting a spatial ecosystem service model to local contexts is proposed.• Decision context, the final users and uses of maps should drive the way the spatial ecosystem service models are structured.• Simply increasing spatial resolution is not sufficient to increase legitimacy and the ultimate utility of maps.• The type and level of stakeholders’ involvement is a determinant of spatial model usefulness.

Making environmental assessments of biomass production systems comparable worldwide

Global demand for agricultural and forestry products fundamentally affects regional land-use change associated with environmental impacts (EIs) such as erosion. In contrast to aggregated global metrics such as greenhouse gas (GHG) balances, local/regional EIs of different agricultural and forestry production regions need methods which enable worldwide EI comparisons. The key aspect is to control environmental heterogeneity to reveal man-made differences of EIs between production regions. Environmental heterogeneity is the variation in biotic and abiotic environmental conditions. In the present study, we used three approaches to control environmental heterogeneity: (i) environmental stratification, (ii) potential natural vegetation (PNV), and (iii) regional environmental thresholds to compare EIs of solid biomass production. We compared production regions of managed forests and plantation forests in subtropical (Satilla watershed, Southeastern US), tropical (Rufiji basin, Tanzania), and temperate (Mulde watershed, Central Germany) climates. All approaches supported the comparison of the EIs of different land-use classes between and within production regions. They also standardized the different EIs for a comparison between the EI categories. The EIs for different land-use classes within a production region decreased with increasing degree of naturalness (forest, plantation forestry, and cropland). PNV was the most reliable approach, but lacked feasibility and relevance. The PNV approach explicitly included most of the factors that drive environmental heterogeneity in contrast to the stratification and threshold approaches. The stratification approach allows consistent global application due to available data. Regional environmental thresholds only included arbitrarily selected aspects of environmental heterogeneity;they are only available for few EIs. Especially, the PNV and stratification approaches are options to compare regional EIs of biomass or crop production such as erosion, biodiversity, or water quality impacts worldwide and thereby complement existing metrics assessing global EIs such as GHG emissions.

Human migration, climate variability, and land degradation: hotspots of socio-ecological pressure in Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, human migration is known to be influenced by environmental change—and vice versa. Thus, degradation of environmental conditions can contribute to out-migration, and in-migration can cause environmental changes at the immigrants’ destination. The aim of our study was to systematically identify regions in which socio-ecological pressures can arise from high population densities, migration, land degradation, and/or rainfall variability. We combined population census data at the district level with high-resolution remote sensing data regarding rainfall variability, land degradation, and land cover. We identified districts in which high population density is coupled with both a steep decline in net primary production (NPP) and large precipitation variability. The affected regions are mainly cropping regions located in the northern highlands and in the central part of the Great Rift Valley. We consider these regions to be particularly prone to environmental changes; moreover, high population density places additional stress on local natural resources. Next, we identified districts in which high in-migration is coupled with both a strong decline in NPP and low rainfall variability, proposing that land degradation in these regions is likely to have resulted from human activity rather than climatic factors. The affected regions include parts of the Awash Valley, regions surrounding Lake Tana, and the mountainous regions between Addis Ababa, Bedele, and Jima. We found these hotspots of in-migration and land degradation are dominantly grasslands regions, which have been characterized by significant cropland expansion during the period studied. Whereas exploring causal relationships between migration, environmental change, and land cover change is beyond the scope of our study, we have pinpointed regions where these processes coincide. Our findings suggest that at the regional scale, deteriorating environmental conditions can be both the cause and the effect of migration.